Register now !    Login  
Main Menu
Who's Online
118 user(s) are online (107 user(s) are browsing Message Forum)

Members: 0
Guests: 118

more...




Browsing this Thread:   1 Anonymous Users




« 1 ... 13 14 15 (16) 17 18 »


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#76
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2015/4/7 16:51
Last Login :
2017/5/5 16:03
From PAD
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 195
Offline
Quote:

NewportNJ wrote:
Quote:
Expand the PATH


You do know the astrnomical cost to dig a foot of train tunnel, right?


Absolutely, which was the point I was (glibly, I'll admit) making about why those areas will never be as attractive as downtown, or even Journal Square.

That said, now that we're thought-experimenting here, it would be theoretically possible to expand the PATH above ground from Journal Square down to the aforementioned areas. No real reason to do so until the JSQ area builds up, though.

Posted on: 2015/4/30 17:18
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#75
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2009/10/7 15:46
Last Login :
3/24 18:05
From jersey city
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 3377
Offline
J Square (07306) is fine don?t worry about us. We have a nice mix.

Races in zip code 07306:
(Estimated pop. 2011: 52,027)

White population: 12,304
Black population: 6,576
American Indian population: 140
Asian population: 16,918
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population: 35
Some other race population: 517
Two or more races population: 1,494
Hispanic or Latino population: 14,685

Posted on: 2015/4/30 17:17
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#74
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2004/11/8 3:36
Last Login :
2020/5/9 11:15
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 969
Offline
Quote:

bill wrote:
Quote:

dtjcview wrote:
- In 07302: 9,492/35,910 are Asian
- In 07310: 8,347/11,849 are Asian


How can we encourage some of them to venture into other zips like 07304, 07305 so that they become safer, more prosperous, etc.


Improve the housing stock, transportation options, more attractive dining and shopping options. All the things that would attract anyone.

Posted on: 2015/4/30 17:01
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#73
Just can't stay away
Just can't stay away


Hide User information
Joined:
2011/10/31 16:00
Last Login :
2020/2/12 19:50
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 125
Offline
Quote:
Expand the PATH


You do know the astrnomical cost to dig a foot of train tunnel, right?

Posted on: 2015/4/30 17:00
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#72
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2015/4/7 16:51
Last Login :
2017/5/5 16:03
From PAD
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 195
Offline
Quote:

bill wrote:

How can we encourage some of them to venture into other zips like 07304, 07305 so that they become safer, more prosperous, etc.


Expand the PATH, or vastly increase levels of service on HBLR, to properly serve those areas with public transportation.

Posted on: 2015/4/30 15:47
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#71
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2005/12/18 2:57
Last Login :
2017/9/14 20:15
From Crystal Point
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 747
Offline
Quote:

dtjcview wrote:
- In 07302: 9,492/35,910 are Asian
- In 07310: 8,347/11,849 are Asian


How can we encourage some of them to venture into other zips like 07304, 07305 so that they become safer, more prosperous, etc.

Posted on: 2015/4/30 15:10
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#70
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2010/8/17 1:45
Last Login :
2020/8/26 13:40
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 3141
Offline
Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:

Using 07310 as a representation of DTJC is disingenuous, at best. It is a zip code that consists of that tiny sliver of waterfront starting over by Harborside Financial, extending North along Newport, and ending over by the Holland Tunnel approach area. In that particular area, you do have a large percentage of immigrant Asians. But, concluding that DTJC is mostly Asian immigrants by using population data from a gerrymandered zip code is like claiming that Manhattan is mostly immigrant Africans by looking at the data of 10026 (which is home to the so called "Petit Senegal" neighborhood, in Central Harlem).


jcnycjc originally wrote: Not sure about the exact numbers but a large percentage of the population in DTJC area, especially Newport is Asian (Indian/Chinese).

From Citydata 2011:

- In 07302: 9,492/35,910 are Asian
- In 07310: 8,347/11,849 are Asian

That's close to 40% Asian in combined zip codes. I'd call that "large". Plus the majority in 07310 are renters and have higher medium incomes than in 07302.

Given the loan origination stats on the same site (~1,800/year in 2008 peak for 07302+07310) - jcnycjc's inferences are not that outrageous.

Posted on: 2015/4/30 14:27
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#69
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2008/8/12 18:31
Last Login :
2020/4/26 22:05
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 3932
Offline
Quote:

dtjcview wrote:
Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

jcnycjc wrote:
Not sure about the exact numbers but a large percentage of the population in DTJC area, especially Newport is Asian (Indian/Chinese).


A large percentage? How do you define large percentage? If you are claiming that a majority of DTJC is Asian, could you please provide a quote, or source, please? That sounds like a wild ass guess.

Quote:

Originally, most of this demographic is on temporary work permits but this eventually moves to green card (permanent residence). Invariably, people think of buying condos on acquiring green cards or when they are close enough to acquiring one. So, this is actually a pretty big catalyst for condo demand in the downtown area


Where did you get this?? That's not how immigration law works, at all. There is a fixed limit on how many green cards can be issued for employment reasons, and those have strict limits on a per country basis. For each country of origin there is a limit of all available green cards. In essence, nationals from any given country are limited to 10,000 employment-based green cards per year. And, for example, for someone from India, the process will take at least 4 years, sometimes longer (around 6 years).


Some grains of truth - a least in the demographics for 07310.

http://www.city-data.com/zips/07310.html


Using 07310 as a representation of DTJC is disingenuous, at best. It is a zip code that consists of that tiny sliver of waterfront starting over by Harborside Financial, extending North along Newport, and ending over by the Holland Tunnel approach area. In that particular area, you do have a large percentage of immigrant Asians. But, concluding that DTJC is mostly Asian immigrants by using population data from a gerrymandered zip code is like claiming that Manhattan is mostly immigrant Africans by looking at the data of 10026 (which is home to the so called "Petit Senegal" neighborhood, in Central Harlem).

Also, another faulty conclusion of the post by jcnycjc is that he seems to equate an Asian background with immigration status. Is he so dense as to think (and, conclude) that if you are Chinese or Indian you are necessarily an immigrant?? That's a rather dumb view. Lots of people from Indian and Chinese ancestry that live in this area were actually born and raised here. They don't have an immigration status, or a green card to worry about, because they are US citizens.

Posted on: 2015/4/30 13:37
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#68
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2015/4/7 16:51
Last Login :
2017/5/5 16:03
From PAD
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 195
Offline
Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:

....okay, and there are newer-construction 4 bedroom homes in areas with much better schools and much lower crime than Jersey City has, selling for ~$200 per square foot within an hour's commute of Manhattan. The prices in Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy are what you call irrational exuberance (based on pure speculation).


Are you really comparing the prices of suburban single family homes with those in vibrant, walkable urban neighborhoods? Demographic shifts are not on your side. And even then, I think you're severely underestimating the cost per square foot in the "good school" towns that are within an hour on NJT. Hell, if good schools are a requirement, you're paying more than $200/sqft in Sussex County...

Posted on: 2015/4/30 12:44
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#67
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2006/7/22 3:08
Last Login :
2017/4/14 0:40
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 202
Offline
Quote:

JcDevil wrote:

Think of it this way: there are condos in freaking Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy that are going for $900-1000/sqft. And I'm not even talking about super-luxury buildings, here. If you don't think that DTJC will get at least there (unless there's a huge economic crash or something of that nature), you're just not paying attention.

Is anyone saying that you're going to see $2500/sqft average sales like in much of Manhattan anytime soon? Of course not. But there's a long way to go until then.


....okay, and there are newer-construction 4 bedroom homes in areas with much better schools and much lower crime than Jersey City has, selling for ~$200 per square foot within an hour's commute of Manhattan. The prices in Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy are what you call irrational exuberance (based on pure speculation).

Posted on: 2015/4/30 5:49
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#66
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2010/8/17 1:45
Last Login :
2020/8/26 13:40
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 3141
Offline
Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

jcnycjc wrote:
Not sure about the exact numbers but a large percentage of the population in DTJC area, especially Newport is Asian (Indian/Chinese).


A large percentage? How do you define large percentage? If you are claiming that a majority of DTJC is Asian, could you please provide a quote, or source, please? That sounds like a wild ass guess.

Quote:

Originally, most of this demographic is on temporary work permits but this eventually moves to green card (permanent residence). Invariably, people think of buying condos on acquiring green cards or when they are close enough to acquiring one. So, this is actually a pretty big catalyst for condo demand in the downtown area


Where did you get this?? That's not how immigration law works, at all. There is a fixed limit on how many green cards can be issued for employment reasons, and those have strict limits on a per country basis. For each country of origin there is a limit of all available green cards. In essence, nationals from any given country are limited to 10,000 employment-based green cards per year. And, for example, for someone from India, the process will take at least 4 years, sometimes longer (around 6 years).


Some grains of truth - a least in the demographics for 07310.

http://www.city-data.com/zips/07310.html

Posted on: 2015/4/30 3:42
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#65
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2008/8/12 18:31
Last Login :
2020/4/26 22:05
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 3932
Offline
Quote:

jcnycjc wrote:
Not sure about the exact numbers but a large percentage of the population in DTJC area, especially Newport is Asian (Indian/Chinese).


A large percentage? How do you define large percentage? If you are claiming that a majority of DTJC is Asian, could you please provide a quote, or source, please? That sounds like a wild ass guess.

Quote:

Originally, most of this demographic is on temporary work permits but this eventually moves to green card (permanent residence). Invariably, people think of buying condos on acquiring green cards or when they are close enough to acquiring one. So, this is actually a pretty big catalyst for condo demand in the downtown area


Where did you get this?? That's not how immigration law works, at all. There is a fixed limit on how many green cards can be issued for employment reasons, and those have strict limits on a per country basis. For each country of origin there is a limit of all available green cards. In essence, nationals from any given country are limited to 10,000 employment-based green cards per year. And, for example, for someone from India, the process will take at least 4 years, sometimes longer (around 6 years).

Posted on: 2015/4/30 2:56
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#64
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2012/1/11 18:21
Last Login :
2019/12/26 15:30
From GV Bayside Park
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 5356
Offline
I sold in 2007 dtjc So Ride the Bubble, and then Sell before it burst.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 20:01
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#63
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2015/4/7 16:51
Last Login :
2017/5/5 16:03
From PAD
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 195
Offline
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
People who think prices in DTJC are inflated have no clue about

1)The buyers and renters within DTJC
2) The local trie-state real estate market
3) Past Manhattan trends and how DTJC is more like brooklyn heights and manhattan than it is to even other neighborhoods within JC.

But whatever. Keep ragging on DTJC. DTJC is the only reason why people would even consider living in Jersey City.


Think of it this way: there are condos in freaking Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy that are going for $900-1000/sqft. And I'm not even talking about super-luxury buildings, here. If you don't think that DTJC will get at least there (unless there's a huge economic crash or something of that nature), you're just not paying attention.

Is anyone saying that you're going to see $2500/sqft average sales like in much of Manhattan anytime soon? Of course not. But there's a long way to go until then.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 19:25
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#62
Newbie
Newbie


Hide User information
Joined:
2013/7/19 14:55
Last Login :
2019/5/10 2:31
From Jersey City
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 8
Offline
Not sure about the exact numbers but a large percentage of the population in DTJC area, especially Newport is Asian (Indian/Chinese).
Originally, most of this demographic is on temporary work permits but this eventually moves to green card (permanent residence). Invariably, people think of buying condos on acquiring green cards or when they are close enough to acquiring one. So, this is actually a pretty big catalyst for condo demand in the downtown area
Additionally, most such people came in their early 20s when they would be most likely sharing a rental apartment with someone similar. As they get into the late 20's/early 30's and get married, they move from shared apartments to independent units. This has also been a major factor in the rental demand in the area.
In the past, people have moved on to the suburbs when their kids are of school going age but recent anecdotal evidence suggests that more and more people are deciding to stay put in JC. They are not willing to forego the convenience of being close to Manhattan/workplace and social network of friends.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 19:11
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#61
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2012/1/19 4:04
Last Login :
2017/4/20 19:08
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 1080
Offline
People who think prices in DTJC are inflated have no clue about

1)The buyers and renters within DTJC
2) The local trie-state real estate market
3) Past Manhattan trends and how DTJC is more like brooklyn heights and manhattan than it is to even other neighborhoods within JC.

But whatever. Keep ragging on DTJC. DTJC is the only reason why people would even consider living in Jersey City.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 15:47
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#60
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2014/12/21 14:43
Last Login :
2015/11/15 0:07
From Harsimus Cove
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 399
Offline
Anyone have any sense of what percentage of renters in DTJC are here on temporary visas or work permits? Could a change in US or home country policies impact the pool of available tenants?
Do other high-rise areas like LIC or Wmburg waterfront have similar tenant demographics?

Also, thanks for adding spell check.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 15:06
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#59
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2004/11/6 21:13
Last Login :
2023/7/17 17:42
From Hamilton Park
Group:
Banned
Posts: 5775
Offline
Quote:

tommyc_37 wrote:
Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.


It could be interpreted as confidence in the market. You sell when you want to cash out. You rent when you believe that the property value and rents are going to rise. I had to explain this to a Texas RE "playa" who was explaining his business plan was to finance the sale of his property. I told him all that said is he didn't expect his rent or value to rise. But he probably bought his single families for less than $20k. RE in the flyover is CRAZY cheap!

Posted on: 2015/4/29 4:55
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#58
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2006/7/22 3:08
Last Login :
2017/4/14 0:40
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 202
Offline
Quote:

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.


You are absolutely correct about prices being artificially inflated right now. There are really 3 main factors that will deflate them (not to beat a dead horse...): 1. increased inventory from investors divesting of units earning a poor return due to competition with new rental buildings; 2. reduced demand from capital heading for real estate opportunities overseas instead of here due to a strong dollar; 3. rising interest rates

As for new condo construction - there are several small condo buildings along the Newark Avenue corridor under construction already, along with two larger ones in the Grove Street PATH station area (the Gannon, which has 25 units and is basically complete; and the Oakman with 159 units and delivery projected for late 2016). Toll Brothers (as of Q1 of this year) is expecting to break ground on 501 units in the fourth quarter of this year for delivery in Q4 2017.

In response to what brewster wrote earlier, yes the market is being driven right now by market speculation (call it irrational exuberance). But investing 101 tells us never to buy an asset when its price is at a record high (unless you want to fail). I don't think investors who paid near top dollar for JC real estate are dumb enough to settle for returns lower than a bank account would yield for several years while assuming all the risk that you wouldn't have with the bank account. They'd be better off selling at a loss and putting the money into something (such as European real estate) that has fallen significantly from peak pricing.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 4:06

Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/4/29 4:24:21
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/4/29 4:25:58
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/4/29 4:28:45
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#57
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2012/8/6 22:56
Last Login :
2019/11/14 1:56
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 1058
Offline
Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
I tend to agree with you except for one HUGE limiting factor and that is the PATH.

Here we go


Quote:
Jersey City, particularly DTJC, has been on a development binge but has failed to improve or upgrade the underlying infrastructure.

Same with Manhattan. They didn't expand MTA service when they built Battery Park City, or condos all over the Queens waterfront, or Williamsburg, or anywhere else. The MTA is struggling just to add the 2nd Avenue Subway. Some MTA lines have exceeded capacity for nearly 10 years. And yet, somehow it hasn't killed NYC property values. Huh....


Quote:
Right now, rush hour trains are already packed to ridiculous levels....

No, they aren't. Such claims are complete BS. I've used a variety of public transportation systems over the years, and while PATH is not the best, it's not the worst either. I see plenty of room on plenty of trains during rush hour, and not a lot of use in the off hours (except for weekend nights). When a PATH train is packed, there's usually one a few minutes behind it with plenty of space.


Quote:
Other posters at Newport have said they have to get on a train going to JSQ just so they can have room for the trip into Manhattan.

Yes, I'm sure that people who live in Newport are going to increase their commute by 20 minutes to... what, exactly? Get a seat in the morning? I'd buy that for a dollar.


Quote:
If this is how it is now I can't imagine how bad it's going to get after the 25,000+ apartments currently under construction get completed.

Daily ridership is around 240,000 trips per day. The 33rd Street line will expand to 10 cars in a few years. The PATH will be fine.


Quote:
And no one is tackling the problem because it isn't their problem.

Yes, aside from signal upgrades, putting in new cars, expanding stations, expanding train capacity, and having to spend money for Sandy repairs, no one cares.

PA definitely has its issues and pulls lots of shenanigans (like putting in a huge new entrance for Grove Street without any handicap access). But yes, a little bit of stuff is getting upgraded, and quite a few politicians do keep tabs on the PATH. Just look at how many pols shrieked about the merest hint of stopping PATH late night service.


Quote:
So I think the PATH will tremendously dampen DTJC's future property values. It's the sort of thing people won't realize until it is too late.

Suuure it is. I guess you ought to sell RIGHT NOW before it's too late!!! Go right ahead. See you in Williamsburg.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 2:58
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#56
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2014/6/9 22:10
Last Login :
2017/6/16 11:22
From Jersey City, NJ
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 244
Offline
Quote:

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.


I recall reading a while ago that condo construction financing had dried up post financial crisis. Rental construction money was the only game in town and also happened to coincide with a massive uptick in rental demand. We're seeing that bump come to a close and condo financing and construction is making a comeback.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 2:39
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#55
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2014/6/9 22:10
Last Login :
2017/6/16 11:22
From Jersey City, NJ
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 244
Offline
Quote:

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.


I recall reading a while ago that condo construction financing had dried up post financial crisis. Rental construction money was the only game in town and also happened to coincide with a massive uptick in rental demand. We're seeing that bump come to a close and condo financing and construction is making a comeback.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 2:38
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#54
Quite a regular
Quite a regular


Hide User information
Joined:
2014/7/30 2:49
Last Login :
2017/6/15 22:25
From NJ
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 70
Offline
Quote:

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.


Taxes and Lawsuits

Posted on: 2015/4/29 1:59
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#53
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2004/11/14 2:38
Last Login :
2023/1/30 21:43
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 3792
Offline
Quote:

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.
maybe there is more money in rentals for developers

Posted on: 2015/4/29 1:14
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#52
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2008/1/3 19:12
Last Login :
2020/9/30 18:46
From Van Vorst Park
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 2391
Offline
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 1:10
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#51
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2012/1/19 4:04
Last Login :
2017/4/20 19:08
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 1080
Offline
Quote:

hero69 wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:
When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.


LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.


What? These are the what will increase demand in both rentals & condos - at least in the luxury high rise department:

1) WTC filling up
2) Manhattan increase in jobs (you mentioned this)
3) Increase in rental and property values in Manhattan (you did not mention this) which will drive people to DTJC
4) Hoboken price out
5) People in nearby NJ cities who want a nightlife
6) Those in nearby JC neighborhoods who want to live closer to Manhattan and are willing to pay more - those in Heights for example

You mentioned the gannon. I went to the website and can't even see availability - only the ability to join a mailing list..is this building even done? Oakman is not online so how do we even judge this?

We should look at recent rentals and recent condo sales. They are high, very high in the DTJC luxury high rise market but still 50% off from Manhattan Proper. DTJC will rise....and there is still money to be made.

I also do not see an influx of condo owners dumping their units onto the market before prices fall.....the buildings you mention have less than 10 units per building on the market right now. inventory is extraordinarily low. Are we talking about DTJC here?
please tell me how i can make some of that dtjc money!


gather up whatever savings,income, family money, drug money, college education money you can find and then buy whatever comes on the market right now in dtjc at full price. Hang on for 10 years and when you become a billionaire, you can cut me a nice check.


Posted on: 2015/4/29 0:57
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#50
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2004/11/14 2:38
Last Login :
2023/1/30 21:43
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 3792
Offline
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:
When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.


LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.


What? These are the what will increase demand in both rentals & condos - at least in the luxury high rise department:

1) WTC filling up
2) Manhattan increase in jobs (you mentioned this)
3) Increase in rental and property values in Manhattan (you did not mention this) which will drive people to DTJC
4) Hoboken price out
5) People in nearby NJ cities who want a nightlife
6) Those in nearby JC neighborhoods who want to live closer to Manhattan and are willing to pay more - those in Heights for example

You mentioned the gannon. I went to the website and can't even see availability - only the ability to join a mailing list..is this building even done? Oakman is not online so how do we even judge this?

We should look at recent rentals and recent condo sales. They are high, very high in the DTJC luxury high rise market but still 50% off from Manhattan Proper. DTJC will rise....and there is still money to be made.

I also do not see an influx of condo owners dumping their units onto the market before prices fall.....the buildings you mention have less than 10 units per building on the market right now. inventory is extraordinarily low. Are we talking about DTJC here?
please tell me how i can make some of that dtjc money!

Posted on: 2015/4/29 0:46
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#49
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2012/1/19 4:04
Last Login :
2017/4/20 19:08
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 1080
Offline
Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:
When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.


LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.


What? These are the what will increase demand in both rentals & condos - at least in the luxury high rise department:

1) WTC filling up
2) Manhattan increase in jobs (you mentioned this)
3) Increase in rental and property values in Manhattan (you did not mention this) which will drive people to DTJC
4) Hoboken price out
5) People in nearby NJ cities who want a nightlife
6) Those in nearby JC neighborhoods who want to live closer to Manhattan and are willing to pay more - those in Heights for example

You mentioned the gannon. I went to the website and can't even see availability - only the ability to join a mailing list..is this building even done? Oakman is not online so how do we even judge this?

We should look at recent rentals and recent condo sales. They are high, very high in the DTJC luxury high rise market but still 50% off from Manhattan Proper. DTJC will rise....and there is still money to be made.

I also do not see an influx of condo owners dumping their units onto the market before prices fall.....the buildings you mention have less than 10 units per building on the market right now. inventory is extraordinarily low. Are we talking about DTJC here?

Posted on: 2015/4/29 0:41
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#48
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2012/1/19 4:04
Last Login :
2017/4/20 19:08
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 1080
Offline
Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

JGJDNYCJC wrote:
Quote:

devilsadvocate wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Same thing gets said about manhattan year after year yet demand stays high and vacancy is low.

Re: DTJC real estate, which is extremely different than other parts of JC, it is not a bubble. If you compare luxury high rises, 1brs in DTJC are going for the same rental prices as studio apts in manhattan, 2brs in dtjc are around the 1br pricing for manhattan.

When such a bargain still exists, there is much catching up to do..


I don't understand why you think this is a "bargain." Jersey City is an inferior good to living in Manhattan, and you're absolutely kidding yourself if you think otherwise. If you could get a comparable place in Manhattan, then I would immediately sell my JC home and acquire a similar property in Manhattan on Central Park or Riverside (two parks that are better than anything JC has to offer).


You're missing the point.

First, there's DTJC, and there's the rest of JC. The two are very different and have evolved differently. It's a bit like UES and Spanish Harlem. Close but far apart.

Second, DTJC is appealing precisely because it's not Manhattan. You can have your space, a car, quiet, some decent retail, and some transit. I liken it to a mix of Brooklyn and Queens and heckuvalot cheaper than both, with better quality and newer real estate.

The folks attracted to DTJC are often seeking a more affordable, lower scale, but proximate alternative to Manhattan, who found Brooklyn too costly.


I am the first one to admit that DTJC is VERY different than the rest of JC, at least pricing wise. When I mention Manhattan, I mean more UES and less East Harlem. Let's call what I mean Manhattan Proper.

Yes, people seeking DTJC want cheaper but I think property values are still undervalued in DTJC and should reach Brooklyn Heights levels which would be more in line with the value you described..."parking, newer amenities,etc"



I tend to agree with you except for one HUGE limiting factor and that is the PATH.

Jersey City, particularly DTJC, has been on a development binge but has failed to improve or upgrade the underlying infrastructure. Most important of all this is arguably the PATH, which JC does not even control. Right now, rush hour trains are already packed to ridiculous levels (and unlike the NYC subways where people constantly get off the train, each PATH stop only brings in a new flood of people, at least until 9th street).

Other posters at Newport have said they have to get on a train going to JSQ just so they can have room for the trip into Manhattan. If this is how it is now I can't imagine how bad it's going to get after the 25,000+ apartments currently under construction get completed. Yes there are some signal improvements scheduled, but I doubt the extra train capacity comes near the increased load on the system the new apartments represent.

And no one is tackling the problem because it isn't their problem. Developers don't care, they just want to lease their buildings out. Fulop can't even do anything but I doubt he cares too much since he's thinking of his governor run and that election will take place before these problems really come to a head. And we all know the PA certainly doesn't care.

So I think the PATH will tremendously dampen DTJC's future property values. It's the sort of thing people won't realize until it is too late.


This is true. I am a hater of the PATH as well and it will affect property prices if crowding continues to accelerate.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 0:30
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#47
Home away from home
Home away from home


Hide User information
Joined:
2006/7/22 3:08
Last Login :
2017/4/14 0:40
Group:
Registered Users
Posts: 202
Offline
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:
When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.


LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.

Posted on: 2015/4/28 22:50
 Top 




« 1 ... 13 14 15 (16) 17 18 »




[Advanced Search]





Login
Username:

Password:

Remember me



Lost Password?

Register now!



LicenseInformation | AboutUs | PrivacyPolicy | Faq | Contact


JERSEY CITY LIST - News & Reviews - Jersey City, NJ - Copyright 2004 - 2017