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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Cat 5 effects on St. Martin

https://youtu.be/Hqyl_G4xGH0





Posted on: 9/6 17:04
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Posted on: 9/6 14:19
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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I'll direct you all to http://spaghettimodels.com/ for all the weather charts you could possibly want. There are links at the top left corner of the page that will take you to the various models, and some will allow you to run your own simulations.

Hoping for the best, prepping for the worst.

Posted on: 9/6 13:46
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Late afternoon, the models starting shifting Irma East. Some of the ensembles have the storm turning out to sea. Weatherbell updated their predicted track about an hour ago. Posted below. The yellow line is the previous predicted track:

Resized Image



If the Weatherbell center track remains true, the Mid-Atlantic region will get a strong tropical storm Tue – Wed of next week. Southeast Florida and South Carolina will get the worst of it.


In regards to the models, Euro and GFS show the storm turning into the interior. Weatherbell is discounting this due to a high pressure building in the Mid-West. They think the storm is more likely to turn East. The Canadian (GEM) model shows the storm coming up the coast as a hurricane, but staying far enough out to sea to not be a disaster; eastern Long Island getting the worst of it.

Another forecaster (not associated with Weatherbell) is predicting the peak sustained winds will reach 200 mph

Model GIFs below.

EURO
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GFS
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GEM
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Posted on: 9/6 9:55
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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The afternoon updated models show Irma going inland and burning out. This would at worst give Jersey City some rain the middle of next week sometime.

A strike on Florida is 80%+ certain (per Weatherbell). The models are showing three possible scenarios:


GEM – Best Case
The GEM (Canadian) model has the storm shifting West, and hitting the islands before making landfall on the panhandle of Florida. The storm weakening to a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3

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Euro – Mid Case
Irma hits Cuba and weakens. Hits the western Keys as a Cat 4.

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GFS – Worst Case
A massive Cat-5 (exceeds Hurricane Andrew in wind speeds and diameter) lands with near 190 mph winds and flattens buildings in Homestead and Miami.

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The Euro and the GEM models show pressure but don’t show the wind speed (the colors are hard to read). Below is a chart that relates pressure to wind speeds. In regards to the GFS, hurricane Andrew landed with a pressure of 922 mbars. The GFS is predicting Irma hitting with under 900. This is what Andrew did to Homestead, FL.

Resized Image





Posted on: 9/5 16:59
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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And right behind Irma, there's Tropical Storm Jose, which is expected to strengthen to a hurricane in a couple of days. Ugh.

Posted on: 9/5 14:07
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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This is a pretty detailed update from AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.



https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather ... d-to-prepare-now/70002631

Posted on: 9/5 14:02
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Quote:

fraulein wrote:
MDM, can you explain the 3 red lines? I follow Joe Bastardi on Twitter and wondered this. Are the left and right lines the borders of the cone, and the middle line is the projected track?


Solid line = Path of storm certain.

Three Lines = Middle line is the predicted path. The two lines on the outside is the 'cone of uncertainty', meaning the storm's path could change anywhere in the cone.

Posted on: 9/5 13:18
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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MDM, can you explain the 3 red lines? I follow Joe Bastardi on Twitter and wondered this. Are the left and right lines the borders of the cone, and the middle line is the projected track?

Posted on: 9/5 13:08
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Updated Weatherbell track, with cone of uncertainty.


Resized Image

Posted on: 9/5 12:59
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Quote:

MDM wrote:

Florida however, may see the biggest storm to hit the Keys since the 1930s. If the storm stays North of Cuba (not hitting any land) it might strengthen to a Cat 5. Model ensembles below:



Irma was upgraded to a Cat 5 hurricane since a little before 9 AM with max sustained winds at 175 MPH (now over 180 MPH) and the storm is larger in footprint than the state of Ohio. We are lucky it is not likely to make it our way.

Posted on: 9/5 11:50
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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The models have shifted the storm farther West. The Euro still shows a potential of the storm going up the East coast. This would be the worst case, as Irma could re-strengthen over the above normal water temps along the East coast; then come up the coast as a Cat 1 / strong tropical storm. The guys at Weatherbell are for the moment, discounting this track. The GFS shows the storm remnants going North, bringing a lot of rain into our area. The Canadian (GEM) keeps trying to shift the storm West into the panhandle. The Weathbell crew thinks the model will shift back East, as there is a high pressure (ridge) building in the mid-West that will push the storm back East.


Florida however, may see the biggest storm to hit the Keys since the 1930s. If the storm stays North of Cuba (not hitting any land) it might strengthen to a Cat 5. Model ensembles below:



EURO

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GFS

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GEM

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Posted on: 9/5 9:46
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Posted on: 9/5 0:28
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Atlantic high pressure looks bigger now, so Irma's predicted path has shifted South. Good for us in Jersey City.. bad if you have family / property in Florida to South Carolina.

Weatherbell revised predicted path:

Resized Image


Euro Model (again heading out to sea)

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Canadian (GEM) (bad hair day for northern Florida)

Resized Image


GFS - Cat 5 slamming into the Eastern Seaboard (again.. GFS is not the most accurate when tracking past storms)

Resized Image



Updated models tomorrow A.M.




Posted on: 9/3 23:12
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Profanity? Really? Clearly you care because you responded. This thread was started because MDM took it upon himself to name an unnamed tropical system that never progressed to a point where it was a named storm. I simply called that out for what it was which was speculation and hype.

Now there's a real storm in the Atlantic that he's speculating on as well. Right now, nobody is making predictions past Thursday in the Caribbean. Just keeping it real!


Quote:

fraulein wrote:
You seem to be the only one caring about this. Most of us are taking what information MDM is sharing and just using it as a heads up. No one has remotely said they are fucking stocking up on water or gas....

Posted on: 9/3 20:04
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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You seem to be the only one caring about this. Most of us are taking what information MDM is sharing and just using it as a heads up. No one has remotely said they are fucking stocking up on water or gas....

Posted on: 9/3 19:09
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Posted on: 9/3 18:58
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Updated forecast track from Weatherbell below. The models pretty much agree now on the track until Irma reaches the Bahamas. After that, the models keep altering the path due to the uncertainty regarding the high pressure system in the Atlantic.

The overnight model runs have shifted the storm farther South with a Cat-4 storm hitting Florida to Cape Hatteras, which then heads inland. If this holds, Jersey City escapes the worst of it, with just a lot of rain.

Weatherman Joe Bastardi reiterated there is still a chance the storm could curve out to sea. However, the trend right now is for a major hurricane hitting the USA.

Resized Image

Posted on: 9/3 9:22
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Posted on: 9/2 20:04
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Afternoon model updates... Weatherbell said they will be updating their own forecast path daily starting tomorrow.


What all three models agree on:

* Irma is going to be a big storm in intensity and in sheer size.

* The storm is going to turn North instead of going into the Gulf of Mexico.

The models can't seem to resolve though how exactly how strong the high pressure is going to be:

The updated Euro now has a weak high with the storm not making landfall. For the NY metro area, this will mean 2.5 to 4 inches of rain and a lot of wind (but well below hurricane force).

The GFS which showed the Armageddon really bad day for Jersey City shifted the storm South, showing a strong Cat 4 or weak Cat 5 slamming into the Chesapeake Bay area. The Canadian has a similar path, but farther South.

What the GFS and Canadian model show that is very different is this storm taking a Sandy like path into the upper Midwest before stalling out.

So like with Sandy, the Euro differs from the other models dramatically.

Model runs below:

EURO

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GFS


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Canadian (GEM)

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Added Pic... Models will make multiple calculations with variances in formulas and inputs. The idea is that if enough of the calculation agree with each other, the model is more certain of the path. The more certain, the darker and thicker the path line.

Below you can see some calcs show the storm going out to sea. The other show curving into land.

Resized Image

Posted on: 9/2 17:00
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Quote:

Dinger wrote:
The wannabee weatherman MDM can't help the bombastic flourishes. Disaster is his middle name.


Oh relax. MDM summarizes available information and makes it clear that these are long-term outlooks/projections that could change at any time. I find it useful and I've learned a lot.

Posted on: 9/2 10:41
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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You are referring to high pressure over bermuda right - trapping/channeling irma towards north FL in the euro model?

Posted on: 9/2 10:29
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Quote:

GrovePath wrote:
Wow - what days is this possible?


8 to 10 days from now:

The issue the weather guys are having figuring out where this storm is going is how strong & expansive will the high pressure system over the Atlantic be.

Strong high: Storm moves farther south, possibly pushed into the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high: Storm turns North well before getting near shore and goes out to see.

Weatherbell in their last update, put the storm hitting between Northern Florida and Cape Hatteras. The Euro model is the closest to their prediction.

Euro Model: Is thinking strong High pressure
Canadian Model: Thinks weak high pressure
GFS (US Model): Think in between the Euro and Canadian.

GIFs below of the three models that were updated early this A.M.

Euro
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Canadian (GEM)
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GFS


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Posted on: 9/2 8:43
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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The wannabee weatherman MDM can't help the bombastic flourishes. Disaster is his middle name.

Posted on: 9/2 1:16
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Armegeddon? Seriously??? If that is not the definition of Hyperbole, I don't know what is. Haven't seen one weather report making such assertions.



Quote:

MDM wrote:
The last storm went ex-tropical before it got a name...

The next possible 'Irma' is showing two likely routes: One bending North and the other heading through the Caribbean.

The guys at Weatherbell have a model that is more in line with the Euro, albeit a bit farther North (think the path of Hurricane Andrew).

The GFS model was originally showing the storm going North well into the Atlantic. The latest update shifted the northern turn into our neck of the woods.

Below is the Euro model. GFS model. Rain totals (if the GFS model is accurate).

Again.... this is for a storm that if it comes, won't be into the late next week. A lot can change between now and then.


Resized Image


Resized Image


Resized Image

Posted on: 9/2 0:57
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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According to Weather Underground on 9/1;

Irma could affect the Leeward Islands early next week, and it will need to be watched as a potentially significant threat to the U.S. East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast in the 9- to 12-day period.

Source & Interesting Article


Posted on: 9/2 0:26
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Quote:

MDM wrote:

GFS Jersey City Armageddon screen shots below:

Resized Image


Resized Image


Wow - what days is this possible?

Posted on: 9/1 22:59
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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Just to add...

The GFS run would be the most powerful storm to hit NYC metro since 1821. The hurricane of 1821 flooded Manhattan up to Canal street (it was low tide when it hit).

Posted on: 9/1 20:12
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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The guys at Weatherbell have moved their 'cone' farther north, setting Irma up for a strike from northern Florida to Cap Hatteras as a Cat 4 or Cat 5. The Euro and the Canadian model are showing something similar.

The GFS (which hasn't been the best at predicting hurricanes) has had the storm tracking North. Previous run had it going out to sea. This evening run came out scary for us. Basically a strong storm, Cat 3 in size, making landfall in western Long Island with about 14 inches of rain in a 24 hour period for us.

The Euro updates very early tomorrow morning. Curious to see if it starts to mimic the GFS. The Euro has been the most accurate when it comes to hurricanes of the models.

GFS Jersey City Armageddon screen shots below:


Resized Image


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Posted on: 9/1 19:59
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Re: Hurricane Irma possible: Next Tuesday thru Thursday
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The last storm went ex-tropical before it got a name...

The next possible 'Irma' is showing two likely routes: One bending North and the other heading through the Caribbean.

The guys at Weatherbell have a model that is more in line with the Euro, albeit a bit farther North (think the path of Hurricane Andrew).

The GFS model was originally showing the storm going North well into the Atlantic. The latest update shifted the northern turn into our neck of the woods.

Below is the Euro model. GFS model. Rain totals (if the GFS model is accurate).

Again.... this is for a storm that if it comes, won't be into the late next week. A lot can change between now and then.


Resized Image


Resized Image


Resized Image

Posted on: 8/31 22:46
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