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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Voyeur wrote:
How would any self-respecting real estate agent agree to list this place at such an absurd price?


The listing agent has a long and successful track record in DTJC, particularly in the higher end of the market. No, I don't work with her or know her on a personal level, but I am familiar with her work.

That said, I was a bit taken aback when I saw the location, too. I was expecting Crystal Pointe at that price.


It's mediocre now, but will probably be one of the better places to live in JC in 5-10 years. That stretch of Marin will be totally transformed by the new high rises, and it will probably take a bit longer to finish the ShopRite conversion, it will cease to be the blight it now is and will have both significant green space and lots of street-level retail.

Now, of course, it's still probably overpriced, since nearly $1k/sqft is very high for Waldo (or most places in JC), but it's not as insane as some are making it out to be.


Agreed on most points. But, one quibble: $1K/sf is definitely too high for Waldo Lofts. That's a building that hasn't aged all that well. I recently saw some units in there and the common areas and hallways make the place look decidedly dated. $1k/sf is the going rate at The Oakman. But, that is going to be a MUCH NICER building that Waldo Lofts, with much better amenities and the units will have nicer finishes and much more upscale details.


Posted on: 2016/4/14 17:55
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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JcDevil wrote:
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T-Bird wrote:
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Voyeur wrote:
How would any self-respecting real estate agent agree to list this place at such an absurd price?


The listing agent has a long and successful track record in DTJC, particularly in the higher end of the market. No, I don't work with her or know her on a personal level, but I am familiar with her work.

That said, I was a bit taken aback when I saw the location, too. I was expecting Crystal Pointe at that price.


It's mediocre now, but will probably be one of the better places to live in JC in 5-10 years. That stretch of Marin will be totally transformed by the new high rises, and it will probably take a bit longer to finish the ShopRite conversion, it will cease to be the blight it now is and will have both significant green space and lots of street-level retail.

Now, of course, it's still probably overpriced, since nearly $1k/sqft is very high for Waldo (or most places in JC), but it's not as insane as some are making it out to be.


If I had the money, I'd rather live in one of the new high rises there. And I'd be absolutely shocked if 2 bedrooms were going for 2 million.

Posted on: 2016/4/14 17:39
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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T-Bird wrote:
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Voyeur wrote:
How would any self-respecting real estate agent agree to list this place at such an absurd price?


The listing agent has a long and successful track record in DTJC, particularly in the higher end of the market. No, I don't work with her or know her on a personal level, but I am familiar with her work.

That said, I was a bit taken aback when I saw the location, too. I was expecting Crystal Pointe at that price.


It's mediocre now, but will probably be one of the better places to live in JC in 5-10 years. That stretch of Marin will be totally transformed by the new high rises, and it will probably take a bit longer to finish the ShopRite conversion, it will cease to be the blight it now is and will have both significant green space and lots of street-level retail.

Now, of course, it's still probably overpriced, since nearly $1k/sqft is very high for Waldo (or most places in JC), but it's not as insane as some are making it out to be.

Posted on: 2016/4/14 17:15
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Voyeur wrote:
How would any self-respecting real estate agent agree to list this place at such an absurd price?


The listing agent has a long and successful track record in DTJC, particularly in the higher end of the market. No, I don't work with her or know her on a personal level, but I am familiar with her work.

That said, I was a bit taken aback when I saw the location, too. I was expecting Crystal Pointe at that price.

Posted on: 2016/4/14 17:00
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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2 million for a place behind BJs, lol good luck.


Right. And when you invite your rich Manhattan friends over they'll cruise up the beautiful Marin Blvd in their town car and then take a right on the pot-holed street where the 18-wheelers back into the Shoprite. Are these people insane? $2.1 million?!? You can find 3br/3 bath apartments in Manhattan for $1.7 million. How would any self-respecting real estate agent agree to list this place at such an absurd price?


You can show your friends the lovely view of the roof of ShopRite and the HVAC along with the parking lot. The RE agent doesn't care what it sells for as long as he/she gets the commission.

Posted on: 2016/4/14 16:35
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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I thought a lot of the fixtures looked cheap and already dated. The lighting fixtures were cheap and not unique. Also, the skinny, glass tile backsplash is also not current. The space definitely looks cool. As a homeowner in the area, I do hope they get the price they're looking for. There isn't a lot on the market, so it may be possible.

Do I think we're in a bubble. I do, but I also think it's mostly only impacting the wealthy. The middle class haven't been purchasing homes, because their credit is still ruined from the last bubble burst. At least that's my theory.

Posted on: 2016/4/14 15:47
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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I mean, it's probably priced over, but it's enormous, duplexed, and that finish level is absurdly high. They must have put at nearly $1M into that renovation. Any $1.7m 3/3 in Manhattan with that square footage is either waaaaaaay North or waaaaaay LES/Chinatown, and would cost at least another $1M+ to get to that level of finish ($400/sqft is actually probably LOW for that level of work in Manhattan).

Posted on: 2016/4/14 15:41
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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psyop wrote:
2 million for a place behind BJs, lol good luck.


Right. And when you invite your rich Manhattan friends over they'll cruise up the beautiful Marin Blvd in their town car and then take a right on the pot-holed street where the 18-wheelers back into the Shoprite. Are these people insane? $2.1 million?!? You can find 3br/3 bath apartments in Manhattan for $1.7 million. How would any self-respecting real estate agent agree to list this place at such an absurd price?

Posted on: 2016/4/14 15:34
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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psyop wrote:
2 million for a place behind BJs, lol good luck.
have you been to Brooklyn or Oakland, CA? Maybe if is still underpriced


I'll bet it sits at that or gets substantially lowered. Time will tell...

Posted on: 2016/4/14 14:42
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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2 million for a place behind BJs, lol good luck.
have you been to Brooklyn or Oakland, CA? Maybe if is still underpriced

Posted on: 2016/4/14 2:09
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Dolomiti wrote:
So, it's been a year since this thread started.

Did real estate prices crater yet? Did I miss the action?


Were you still in school 11 years ago? This is what bubble watching looks like. Doomsayers on one side and "this time it's different!" cheerleaders on the other. The former will eventually be right, the only question is when, and by how much it will correct.

Posted on: 2016/4/14 1:13
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2 million for a place behind BJs, lol good luck.

Posted on: 2016/4/14 0:26
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So, it's been a year since this thread started.

Did real estate prices crater yet? Did I miss the action?

Posted on: 2016/4/14 0:15
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Interesting that the listing says last sale was $642,000 in 2015. Either way that's a tidy profit, IF they can get the price. That's a big if, you can list for whatever you want.

Posted on: 2016/4/13 21:45
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Posted on: 2016/4/13 21:30
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Posted on: 2016/4/13 21:06
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dtjcview wrote:
And I'm a fan of Buffett - "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".



That I agree. My best investments were the ones that I brought in March 2009 (pure beginner's dumb luck), which doubled by 2014.

Unfortunately, my portfolio has gone down quite a bit since

Posted on: 2016/1/23 20:25
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To me - a strong dollar is a sign of relative strength and confidence in the US. You can argue the impacts. Of all developed nations, the US is least dependent on exports - a strong dollar doesn't hurt the US as much as you might think, and there are clear benefits.

Show me any evidence of economic or housing collapse in the US - apart from perhaps a recent dent in 401ks. This is not 2008. Not even close.


Yes, the US is stronger - according to the government numbers, which are all "engineered" and manipulated.

If you are "on the ground" and looking at real people like you and me, are we really better? How many people really feel they're in a better financial situation than 5 years ago? Or 10 years ago?

From where I am, I see most people's lives not having improved much over the last 10 years (or since 2008). wage stagnation while everything is more expensive. How long can we substain living like this, before we really need to start cutting into spending and life style?

And don't be too fast brushing off the risk of economic and housing collapse - usually it's here before you realize it. I think they're both real possibilities, along with the thread of war somewhere - the world needs a distraction right now from all the potential economic gloom!!!


There's always a chance of a black swan event creating an economic collapse. We don't know what we don't know. The majority of US recessions in modern times have been self-inflicted.. What we do know is that there are no red flags in the US.

Are people better off in the last 5-10 years? For me - my earnings and expenditures have stayed flat, but my wealth has more than doubled. The metrics show people are better off - more jobs, higher payrolls, less personal debt, high consumer sentiment, lower unemployment claims... http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-another-recession/

Most pros think the risk of recession in 2016 is around the 15-20% mark. What's driving the markets is mostly fear. And I'm a fan of Buffett - "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".

Stay fearful and let others take your lunch money.

Posted on: 2016/1/23 19:06
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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dtjcview wrote:
@Shria

To me - a strong dollar is a sign of relative strength and confidence in the US. You can argue the impacts. Of all developed nations, the US is least dependent on exports - a strong dollar doesn't hurt the US as much as you might think, and there are clear benefits.

Show me any evidence of economic or housing collapse in the US - apart from perhaps a recent dent in 401ks. This is not 2008. Not even close.


Yes, the US is stronger - according to the government numbers, which are all "engineered" and manipulated.

If you are "on the ground" and looking at real people like you and me, are we really better? How many people really feel they're in a better financial situation than 5 years ago? Or 10 years ago?

From where I am, I see most people's lives not having improved much over the last 10 years (or since 2008). wage stagnation while everything is more expensive. How long can we substain living like this, before we really need to start cutting into spending and life style?

And don't be too fast brushing off the risk of economic and housing collapse - usually it's here before you realize it. I think they're both real possibilities, along with the thread of war somewhere - the world needs a distraction right now from all the potential economic gloom!!!

Posted on: 2016/1/23 17:32
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SRhia wrote:

When everyone else is poor, a strong dollar is not good for the US. It makes our goods more expensive.


No nation or empire has made its people wealthy by devaluing its currencies. This has been tried since Emperor Marcus Aurelius substituted copper for gold in Roman coinage to when President Nixon defaulted on the USA's gold obligations. In the end, you get economic contraction instead of growth.

Devalued currency = making your people poor to compete better with other poor people. A few make money doing this, but not the people as a whole. Devalued currency is just another way of creating cheap wages in order to be 'competitive'. This has been the economic model in Puerto Rico for decades.

If the currency is strong, manufacturers have to be competitive by other means: Access to low cost energy, low taxes, investments to increase productivity. We have actually had all three at various levels in the country. As a result, we have a lot of manufacturing coming back.

Cheap gas has been a boon to the chemical industry and even textiles is coming back. The latter due to a more rapid depreciation allowance has incentivized manufacturers to invest. In 2010 Parksdale mills in South Carolina re-opened a plant creating 140 jobs. In the 1980s, the plant needed over 2,000 workers to produce the same amount of yarn.

Posted on: 2016/1/23 16:26
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SRhia wrote:
Who's betting on a war in the middle east soon? The longer the oil price stays low, I think the higher the odds are becoming...


Honestly, this is a concern of mine long term. I don't think an all out war is in the offing,


My concern is less on the Mid East and more on China. China's GDP growth numbers (i.e. 7%) are fiction. If you look at indicators like electrical consumption and shipping, their real growth is at best 1%.

1% = not nearly enough growth to find all the newly urbanized peasants jobs; which leads to social unrest. China also has major inflation and debt issues.

The former was one of the reasons the company my wife works for moved all their manufacturing out of China. The Chinese factory workers would leave for the Chinese New Year and then would not come back or return and go on strike. The reason? Their wages for the year had been wrecked by inflation. They didn't have near the buying power the workers though they had. The end result was late deliveries. Production is now in India, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

The latter is harder to pin down due to the opaque nature of the Chinese banking system. I am reading estimates that true debt (when taking in account the shadow banking system) is 250% to 350% of GDP.

To keep the economy going, China is now practicing the ultimate Keynesian wild card by taking 'The Broken Window Fallacy' to a new level. New buildings are being torn down and then rebuilt. Why? To keep up demand for commodities and construction workers. In the end this means even more debt.

So what does a totalitarian regime due with a collapsing economy and a lot of pissed citizens? Well... my fear is China will pull something out of the Leopoldo Galtieri playbook: start a war (either directly or using their Satrap North Korea). Given China's recent actions and statements (belligerence mixed with supreme confidence) from their top military command, it looks like they are starting preparations to do just that.

Japan has taken notice and given that the US Navy has lost a lot of its capabilities, Japan is arming up. Korea is already very well armed and the Philippines is trying to modernize. The Philippine military have a saying: "We have an air force.. it is all air and no force".

So what will be China's equivalent of the Falkland Islands? My guess it will be the potentially oil rich islands in the South China Sea.

Posted on: 2016/1/23 16:09

Edited by MDM on 2016/1/23 16:27:16
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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@Shria

To me - a strong dollar is a sign of relative strength and confidence in the US. You can argue the impacts. Of all developed nations, the US is least dependent on exports - a strong dollar doesn't hurt the US as much as you might think, and there are clear benefits.

Show me any evidence of economic or housing collapse in the US - apart from perhaps a recent dent in 401ks. This is not 2008. Not even close.

Posted on: 2016/1/23 15:01
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Real estate bubble? Recession? Wrong and wrong.

The biggest factor people forget - is that the US operates off the US economy. Period. What we're seeing in the markets is a correction - mostly driven by fear on what's going on overseas. Given that there are no US structural problems, a strengthening dollar, strong corporate profits, and macro-economics like lower oil prices that favor the US - best place to invest atm is the US.

Join the chicken-little crowd if you like. But you'll be wrong.


When everyone else is poor, a strong dollar is not good for the US. It makes our goods more expensive.

I'm not sure if the corporate "profits" are strong - I think that's a lot of financial engineering with corporate buybacks and layoffs. Instead of putting the money into capital investment for the future, corporations decide to fluff their stock price by buybacks which does nothing for the future of the company.

Low oil prices are good - however, at this LOW oil price, the oil industry is starting to lay off people, and that's not good. The oil industry was the one bright shining star in employment, and now that's going away...

And coupled with higher health care prices, and inflation - yes, there is inflation despite what the government says - and wage stagnation, I'm not sure how many people are really doing better than they were 5 years ago, or 10 years ago.

Yes, the US is the best place to invest for now - because it's the "cleanest" dirty shirt at the laundromat.

And stop watching CNBC and FOX - they're all just propaganda!!!


Posted on: 2016/1/23 13:50
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Real estate bubble? Recession? Wrong and wrong.

The biggest factor people forget - is that the US operates off the US economy. Period. What we're seeing in the markets is a correction - mostly driven by fear on what's going on overseas. Given that there are no US structural problems, a strengthening dollar, strong corporate profits, and macro-economics like lower oil prices that favor the US - best place to invest atm is the US.

Join the chicken-little crowd if you like. But you'll be wrong.

Posted on: 2016/1/23 4:32
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SRhia wrote:
Who's betting on a war in the middle east soon? The longer the oil price stays low, I think the higher the odds are becoming...


Honestly, this is a concern of mine long term. I don't think an all out war is in the offing, but I think you will see a lot of civil unrest (more than normal anyway) in the Middle East because all the corrupt, tyrannical regimes rely on money (derived from oil) to rule with a tight iron fist. If the Middle East was to devolve into war I think we would be very negatively affected.

But, even without a war, I think we are looking at a bunch of factors and events that would normally result on a recession. I think MDM has done a great job in highlighting many of those. Personally, I am assuming things will go south sooner rather than later and have been taking steps to remain liquid, debt free, and with savings in the bank. Let's see how it all shakes out. I am an optimist by nature, but also a realist. ;)

Posted on: 2016/1/23 0:33
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Who's betting on a war in the middle east soon? The longer the oil price stays low, I think the higher the odds are becoming...


In other words, invest in oil?

Posted on: 2016/1/22 21:31
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Who's betting on a war in the middle east soon? The longer the oil price stays low, I think the higher the odds are becoming...

Posted on: 2016/1/22 21:25
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MDM wrote:
forget the stock market.

Look at industrial production, retail sales, labor participation rate, etc... None of those figures have been rosy as of late.


I wonder how much of that is just fracking hangover. It's hit the oil belt real hard.


A significant part of the job growth since 2009 has been directly (oil field work) or indirectly (i.e. sand mining here in NJ, steel pipes, railroads, chemical manufacturing due to cheap gas) due to the boom in domestic oil & gas.

We also had a lot of foreign capital pour into the country. IMHO, this is one of the reasons the dollar recovered even with all sorts of quantitative easing (i.e. money printing) by the Federal Reserve. Influx of foreign money helped keep the dollar strong.

Now.. that is all going bye bye. The Iranians have now entered the oil price war. The USA really isn't the target. Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the House of Saud have all locked horns over natural gas and are using oil to try to bankrupt each other.

The Saudis and Qatar want to build a gas line through Turkey to supply Europe. The Russians don't want to lose their monopoly on being Europe's gas supplier. With Germany shutting down its nukes, it needs lots of gas to generate power. Germany has money... Russia needs money. Russia (with Iran as an nominal ally) doesn't want that gas money going to the Saudis. The Turks want the gas pipeline from the Mideast going through them so they get a cut.

Europe has good shale gas reserves (in Poland especially). However, I don't know a single country in Europe that has mineral rights, so there is no incentive to get the gas out of the ground.

Normally low fuel prices would boost growth. However, there are so many economic headwinds this might be a rare case where a drop in energy costs lead into a recession. The last time I think this happened was the 1920 - 1921 depression.

Manufacturing is in recession. If you look at the Baltic Dry Index, global trade in collapse. There just isn't a lot of good news in the world economy right now.

Posted on: 2016/1/22 20:53
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I wonder how much of that is just fracking hangover. It's hit the oil belt real hard.



In addition to fracking / global slowdown / etc, there's also a lot of politics and manipulation in the oil market (and commodities in general). It's more than just "supply and demand" these days.


Of course! And, no one is denying that. But, what started as a gambit by the Saudis to affect/impact the US oil industry spiraled out of control and now they can't get it back to where they want. Simply put, they played with fire and are now getting burned. They were not expecting industrial demand to slow down as much. They went through a quarter of their currency reserves in one year, and because oil prices show no sign of recovering any time soon, they will likely burn through another quarter (or, more) in this year. The House of Saud is getting worried; with limited capital they risk losing the tight grip they keep over their population. If it wasn't for the potential impact to our country, and the entire Middle East, I would welcome an implosion of that regime.

Posted on: 2016/1/22 20:08
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2011/4/15 3:58
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5/9 22:13
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brewster wrote:


I wonder how much of that is just fracking hangover. It's hit the oil belt real hard.



In addition to fracking / global slowdown / etc, there's also a lot of politics and manipulation in the oil market (and commodities in general). It's more than just "supply and demand" these days.

Posted on: 2016/1/22 14:56
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