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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Quote:

If you dont see an uptick in crime there is something wrong with you. The left (deblasio) has set back NYC for decades. The suburbs are booming!. You are blind.






PixelSquish wrote:
Here we are 3 months later and this dystopian amount of crime and looting I kept hearing about where is it? I still see right wingers on FB posting that our cities are burning and only Trump can save us.

I've ridden over 120 miles through NYC the last 4 weekends (from the Heights) - throughout Queens/Brooklyn/Manhattan and haven't seen anything out of the ordinary, well during a pandemic, besides a depressingly long line at a food bank. Which was very sad.

The city, and country, are going to suffer if we don't get some serious stimulus passed - which the Fed is saying we need to go big on, and so are major Wall Street firms. Maybe we should tone down the rhetoric and get things done for everyone instead of falling prey to conservative propaganda.

Posted on: 10/10 3:12
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Here we are 3 months later and this dystopian amount of crime and looting I kept hearing about where is it? I still see right wingers on FB posting that our cities are burning and only Trump can save us.

I've ridden over 120 miles through NYC the last 4 weekends (from the Heights) - throughout Queens/Brooklyn/Manhattan and haven't seen anything out of the ordinary, well during a pandemic, besides a depressingly long line at a food bank. Which was very sad.

The city, and country, are going to suffer if we don't get some serious stimulus passed - which the Fed is saying we need to go big on, and so are major Wall Street firms. Maybe we should tone down the rhetoric and get things done for everyone instead of falling prey to conservative propaganda.

Posted on: 10/9 21:32
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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The pros of JC real estate:

-Still, and will always be, a cheaper and viable alternative to NYC itself for people who want to maintain a city lifestyle w/o going full suburb.

-For people who felt trapped in their apartment during the pandemic, there's plenty of places in JC with more space, more yards, etc.

-There will likely be less room for pure speculation than we've seen recently. Less buying old stock, tearing it down and putting up a Bayonne Box.

-Places like the Heights and parts of Bergen/Lafayette will likely see less depreciation since they didn't skyrocket all that much to begin with. The newer developments in those areas might be another story though.

The cons:

-The property tax bills are going to rise and services, which were poor to begin with, will become worse.

-There might be a glut of inventory with so many developments still on going, which will possibly push prices further down.

-You're already starting to see a lot more crime. I'd love to know what the year over year burglary rate was in JC. In my neighborhood everything is up for grabs - cars, storefronts and even houses.

-I don't see a path to the school situation getting better.

Generally, I'd expect JC to outperform NYC mostly because it doesn't have as far to fall as many parts of the NYC do.

Posted on: 6/12 22:49
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Re: The Pandemic
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dr_nick_riviera wrote:
You seek to forget that the virus is temporary. We will have a vaccine and once we do, people will flock back for opportunities. It’s not like the problems that existed in the suburbs (opioids, decaying main streets, generally nothing to do) are going away after the virus.

You need to keep repeating - the virus is temporary and people have short memories.


There is no guarantee that there is going to be a vaccine and that can't be overlooked. And even if there is some vaccine the effectiveness of the first round is not yet determined. There is already reporting in various business journals about wealthy people leaving Cities for the suburbs. While things may not turn out to be as bad as the mid 70s, history does have away of repeating itself. Look, I'm not putting my house on the market. Still I see a significant hit. Not just a modest quick dip. The other factor is that unemployment is high and a recession started in February. Unless you're counting on some V shape recovery, which is unlikely i can't see a short term modest downturn. There are several factors at play, including COVID19 for which we may not have a vaccine, crime in NYC has gone up, we started this all out in a recession and now the pandemic exacerbated that and real estate in the NYC area was already over valued. Of course I know I could be wrong. But to me all factors point to a longer and more severe downturn.

Posted on: 6/12 16:42
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Afraid I would have to agree with Sutherland. I am very worried. All of my wealth had been in my house which I had killed myself restoring.

As readers may recall, I am a conservative. The woke movement will for the intermediate term together with the shock of the virus make city living very undesirable.

Order and responsibility and accountability is the begning of civil society. All of that is under attack.

Posted on: 6/12 16:19
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Afraid I would have to agree with Sutherland. I am very worried. All of my wealth had been in my house which I had killed myself restoring.

As readers may recall, I am a conservative. The woke movement will for the intermediate term together with the shock of the virus make city living very undesirable.

Order and responsibility and accountability is the begning of civil society. All of that is under attack.

Posted on: 6/12 16:19
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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I have been thinking for the past few years if history could repeat itself of the late 60s-early 90s,. While the corona virus and racial tension could be a double whammy they came when urban renewal is at a peak. The riots of the late 60s came after urban populations had been decreasing for a few decades.

Hopefully, this is just temporary blip like 2008 crisis (though that felt like a long time) but time will tell. As I remember 9/11 actually increased property values in JC.

One long term thing I think about is rising sea levels and flooding of downtown JC. After superstorm Sandy I thought maybe I was lucky for living in the heights and never making it downtown.

Posted on: 6/12 15:48
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Re: The Pandemic
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Sutherland wrote:
What you do not seem to realize is that some of us have lived through this sort of thing before. Social unrest made cities undesirable and drove them into financial ruins. New York City was actually bankrupt, crime ridden, filthy with garbage piled upon the streets for days. There was rioting in many cities through out the country. Many of the brownstones downtown, Jersey City were boarded up and there was high crime downtown. Hamilton Park was often referred to as needle park. The restaurant on the corner of 9th and Erie once was boarded up and had a sliding plexiglass window from which drugs were sold.


So it's not the media influencing me, but my own life experience. It's good for a sales person to be optimistic and hopeful. But it's also important for homeowners and investors to be realistic and not disregard history. If you think the aforementioned is not at all a possibility, well then good for you. I am not saying this is necessarily all going to happen, but the market is doing to take a hit greater than what you're anticipating for sure.


You don’t seem to realize that the Jersey City of the 70s is not the Jersey City of 2020. The waterfront is not a husk of abandoned factories. There aren’t entire industries packing up and leaving. Yes, commercial real estate will be in a bad spot for a while, but truthfully a correction was long overdue. If those spaces stay vacant for long, they’ll convert to residential as we saw in Lower Manhattan after 9/11. Lower street storefront rents may mean a return to more quirky and innovative local businesses, not a Duane Reade or BoA on every corner.

Thanks to environmental regulations, cities are not polluted shitholes caked with coal dust, they’re fairly clean and livable. At least in Downtown, all those glistening high rises - you think nobody will want to live in those? You seek to forget that the virus is temporary. We will have a vaccine and once we do, people will flock back for opportunities. It’s not like the problems that existed in the suburbs (opioids, decaying main streets, generally nothing to do) are going away after the virus. Yes there will be a dip but comparing the current situation to the 70s misses a lot of things. The macroeconomics are totally different this time around. There will be a dip and things may be rough for a while but this doom and gloom you’re spouting is nonsense.

You need to keep repeating - the virus is temporary and people have short memories.

Posted on: 6/12 15:17
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Re: The Pandemic
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I am certainly not being "optimistic" and "hopeful" just to make a sale. We of course do not know each other personally, but if you did or ever spoke to any of my clients you would know thats not how I do business. I appreciate your experience, but I do business based on the facts and figures, such as the ones I presented in my last post. I do not believe needle park is going to be making a comeback nor the real estate market in Hudson County taking a 30% hit, but I of course do not claim to know the future. That is just my opinion.

I figure time till tell the true tale and we will just have to see. It was nice debating with you, sir.

Quote:

Sutherland wrote:
What you do not seem to realize is that some of us have lived through this sort of thing before. Social unrest made cities undesirable and drove them into financial ruins. New York City was actually bankrupt, crime ridden, filthy with garbage piled upon the streets for days. There was rioting in many cities through out the country. Many of the brownstones downtown, Jersey City were boarded up and there was high crime downtown. Hamilton Park was often referred to as needle park. The restaurant on the corner of 9th and Erie once was boarded up and had a sliding plexiglass window from which drugs were sold.


So it's not the media influencing me, but my own life experience. It's good for a sales person to be optimistic and hopeful. But it's also important for homeowners and investors to be realistic and not disregard history. If you think the aforementioned is not at all a possibility, well then good for you. I am not saying this is necessarily all going to happen, but the market is doing to take a hit greater than what you're anticipating for sure.

Posted on: 6/12 2:24
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Re: The Pandemic
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What you do not seem to realize is that some of us have lived through this sort of thing before. Social unrest made cities undesirable and drove them into financial ruins. New York City was actually bankrupt, crime ridden, filthy with garbage piled upon the streets for days. There was rioting in many cities through out the country. Many of the brownstones downtown, Jersey City were boarded up and there was high crime downtown. Hamilton Park was often referred to as needle park. The restaurant on the corner of 9th and Erie once was boarded up and had a sliding plexiglass window from which drugs were sold.


So it's not the media influencing me, but my own life experience. It's good for a sales person to be optimistic and hopeful. But it's also important for homeowners and investors to be realistic and not disregard history. If you think the aforementioned is not at all a possibility, well then good for you. I am not saying this is necessarily all going to happen, but the market is doing to take a hit greater than what you're anticipating for sure.

Posted on: 6/11 14:58
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Re: The Pandemic
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Look, I am agreeing that there may be a short term effect/dip in the market, but I do believe there would be a rebound. In a previous post of yours, you said there would be a 30% reduction in prices. What data do you have to prove this? I just cannot see that happening.

Is everything going to go back to "normal"... no. I do believe things will change in the way we live and the way I do business in real estate. Life changed after 9/11 in how we travel along with many other things and I believe there will be changes now as well. Commercial real estate will likely suffer longer than residential real estate this time around.

Yes, people are moving out of the city, but a lot of those people are also moving to Hudson County (and other close suburbs). So far, it seems to be an even shift.

Jersey City Pricing:
Jersey City is more than just Downtown, my friend. Average prices for many of the other areas like West Side, Bergen Lafayette, Greenville and Journal Square are actually close to $400k.
07304 - $410k
07305 - $376k
07306 - $471k

$500k+ does not make up the vast majority of the market. It makes up the vast majority of Downtown JC...

Hudson County Pricing:
Also, other areas in Hudson County are even lower, Union City ($432k), Bayonne ($346k), North Bergen ($410k), West New York ($471k)... are all areas averaged less than $500k

You are telling me that these properties are going to be valued 30% less than they are now? The cost of building a house is more than that difference.

Also, you are pretty accurate with the number of years I have been working in the property business. That being said, I have seen people who have been 30 years in the field who are terrible at what they do and other agents just 3 years in the business who have a much better understanding of the market. Years in the business isn't an accurate indication of your knowledge. Are you in the real estate field? I am wondering where you are getting your information or if it is all from media outlets and assumptions?

Be careful with the fear mongering via media outlets. Yes, there can possibly be a dip, but don't be fooled into thinking the world is doomed.

[quote]
Sutherland wrote:
I'm not sure how long you've been in real estate. But "my educated guess" is probably not longer than 10 years. Since my original post there have been numerous business and financial publications reporting on people fleeing Cities for the suburbs for larger homes where at least one person if not two can work from home.
There's no question the Jersey City and Manhattan commercial real estate market will be taking a huge hit as more people will be working from home and employers will reduce their footprint.

Even before the pandemic two bedroom condos in JC had been moving slow because of excess inventory. It's been anecdotally observed from other realtors that the units in multi unit dwellings are definitely taking a hit.

Perhaps brownstones will do well, because it will accommodate the desire to not live in a multi unit dwelling.

If you do not think the looting and crime in Manhattan is going to impact Jersey City, you're deep in denial. People pretty much live in Hudson Co. to be closer to Manhattan. If people aren't going to be going to sporting events, museums, theaters, restaurants and feel safe in Manhattan, they are not interested in paying a lot for their real estate to just sit home. They are more inclined to have a bigger property where they can work from home, have space for their children to play and maybe even have a pool.

Your comment about the $500k market only furthers my original proposition. If you've been in the local real estate market for awhile you would have readily observed that the >$500k segment makes up the vast majority of the market.

Posted on: 6/11 14:35
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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https://www.winknews.com/2020/06/08/co ... e-rare-who-official-says/

Who's foolin' who?

Do any of these people know what's going on?

Posted on: 6/9 15:07
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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I'm not sure how long you've been in real estate. But "my educated guess" is probably not longer than 10 years. Since my original post there have been numerous business and financial publications reporting on people fleeing Cities for the suburbs for larger homes where at least one person if not two can work from home.
There's no question the Jersey City and Manhattan commercial real estate market will be taking a huge hit as more people will be working from home and employers will reduce their footprint.

Even before the pandemic two bedroom condos in JC had been moving slow because of excess inventory. It's been anecdotally observed from other realtors that the units in multi unit dwellings are definitely taking a hit.

Perhaps brownstones will do well, because it will accommodate the desire to not live in a multi unit dwelling.

If you do not think the looting and crime in Manhattan is going to impact Jersey City, you're deep in denial. People pretty much live in Hudson Co. to be closer to Manhattan. If people aren't going to be going to sporting events, museums, theaters, restaurants and feel safe in Manhattan, they are not interested in paying a lot for their real estate to just sit home. They are more inclined to have a bigger property where they can work from home, have space for their children to play and maybe even have a pool.

Your comment about the <$400k market in JC is rather curious. I didn't think that made up a big component of the JC real estate market. Your comment about the>$500k market only furthers my original proposition. If you've been in the local real estate market for awhile you would have readily observed that the >$500k segment makes up the vast majority of the market.

Quote:

RealEstateSingh wrote:
I feel like the original post is extremely morbid and not very likely.

As a realtor, the real estate market in Jersey City has been booming. I am busier now than I have ever been in my whole career. T

My Market Update:
I am seeing properties in the $400k and below range flying off the shelves (Seller's Market) but also seeing the the $500k+ properties being negotiated down (Buyer's Market).

Lastly, what crime and looting are we talking about. As far as I can tell, there hasn't been much looting in our area if at all. Perhaps Manhattan, which I have mentioned, probably will have a slow recovery, but it will still be a hub. The way I see it, it presents a buying opportunity.

(risk/reward) Buying now is a risk, but prices are down with historically low interest rates. just my educated opinions.

Posted on: 6/9 14:14
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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I haven't gone through each comment, but I feel like the original post is extremely morbid and not very likely.

As a realtor, the real estate market in Jersey City has been booming. I am busier now than I have ever been in my whole career. That being said there is currently a Sellers AND a Buyers market.

My Market Update:
I am seeing properties in the $400k and below range flying off the shelves (Seller's Market) but also seeing the the $500k+ properties being negotiated down (Buyer's Market). Of course there are overpriced and under priced properties in each category. During downturns, this is expected.

No one has a crystal ball, but like some other people have said, we have seen this time and time again in past crashes. We will rebound. Hudson County is always going to be across Manhattan (which, yes, will have a slow recovery, but it is still always going to be a hub) and it will always be a cheaper option.

I like to call Hudson County the 6th NYC borough as its actually closer to downtown and midtown than most of the official NYC boroughs.

Lastly, what crime and looting are we talking about. As far as I can tell, there hasn't been much looting in our area if at all. Perhaps Manhattan, which I have mentioned, probably will have a slow recovery, but it will still be a hub. The way I see it, it presents a buying opportunity.

(risk/reward) Buying now is a risk, but prices are down with historically low interest rates. Deals are out there, but again, no one has a crystal ball, and these are just my educated opinions.

Posted on: 6/8 18:14
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Re: The Pandemic
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I can't see how any can expect a short term hit to the real estate market at this juncture. The crime and looting in the City is likely to be devastating to the local economy for sometime to come.

Posted on: 6/4 23:48
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Re: The Pandemic
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Except that the cluster of cases in Northern Italy came from Italian businesspeople returning from Wuhan, a few of which were super-spreaders.

The Chinese workers had already been here before the first case in China.

Posted on: 5/26 20:31
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Re: The Pandemic
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Of the man reasons why COVID19 spread so much in Italy is because Italians are very tactile and regularly hug and kiss one another. Also, it's typical for three generations of families to live in the same modest home. While I believe China is awful and underhanded, some of your conspiracy theories are definitely a little over the top. But I have nothing against a good conspiracy theory. Still, what you haven't commented on is how the constituents of Hong Kong of on their own controlled the spread of COVID19 on HongKong.

Posted on: 5/25 20:31
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Re: The Pandemic
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Little noticed and as well little reported on: In Northern Italy there were 300,000
Chinese--laborers working on the Belt and Road China project. They displaced Italians. When the virus struck guess where the Chinese flocked? Yep--to Italy, and the results were catastrophic as we know.

Here's some background:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/article ... ears-over-the-coronavirus

Posted on: 5/25 16:04
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Re: The Pandemic
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Interesting video on China, when the 2008 housing crash happened and banks laid off people, a neighbor who worked for one of the banks then but was not laid off, said the industry boasted the about rehiring people but they rehired all Chinese nationals. I heard his statement sometime in 2010.

Posted on: 5/25 1:58
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Meanwhile, Mack Cali stock continues to plummet. I regret not going short on it March 1, 2020.

https://www.google.com/search?q=mack+c ... &sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Posted on: 5/22 17:22
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Our DTJC block has a couple of new residents, 2 of them moved from the high rises, said it wasn't worth paying for the amenities that could no longer be accessed. Wanted a brownstone/rowhouse.

Posted on: 5/22 16:17
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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About the alleged rise in crime in NY, the truth is that it fell significantly:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/crime-l ... d-many-us-cities-not-all/

Posted on: 5/19 17:42
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Re: The Pandemic
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Thank you Sutherland. Good link.
Here' where that snippet was taken from:

"Founded in 2001, NTD TV (Not to be confused with Australian NTD (TV station) or New Tang Dynasty Television is a New York-based television broadcaster. According to their about page NTD’s mission is “At NTD we believe the integrity of our world hinges on the accurate and truthful spreading of information.” NTD TV is founded by a group of Chinese-American Falun Gong practitioners which supports social conservatism, segregated paradises and anti-communism according to RationalWiki. The Wall Street Journal states that Falun Gong also founded the Epoch Times. However, a SF Gate article suggests that Executives at the Epoch Times, New Tang Dynasty and Sound of Hope deny they represent the movement. The Chinese Government considers the movement a cult and they state “NTD.TV claims to be an independent public media organization serving Chinese people all over the world. But, in essence, it is a mouthpiece of ‘Falun Gong’ in cult and anti-China propaganda.”

NTD TV’s primary focus topics are news, cultural shows, educational programs, sports and entertainment."

..........................

It appears the Chinese government doesn't appreciate their efforts.

Posted on: 5/18 12:10
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Much of what they said wasn't accurate. Though, I think it's fair to say that most people do not trust the Chinese government. Still the US does business with them.

Posted on: 5/18 1:26
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Quote:

RichMauro wrote:
A real eye opener:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pqVb96yyCY


:/

"NTD TV is founded by a group of Chinese-American Falun Gong practitioners which supports social conservatism, segregated paradises and anti-communism..."

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ntd-tv-new-tang-dynasty/

Posted on: 5/17 17:28
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Posted on: 5/16 8:38
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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The question is with workers and offices in the city: which is the tail and which is the dog? Are the workers in the city because that's where the big high paying businesses are, or are large businesses attracted to the city because that's where educated and talented people want to live?

What could be the biggest effect is on commuters, who have already chosen not to live in the city. Even if the urban areas don't actually lose residents they will lose those millions of people coming in each day and spending money. That would be a huge change in the economy, but not a death blow. NY was the greatest city in the world before the explosion of the suburbs. Fuck em. The office towers of Wall Street have already been converted to residences, could happen to midtown.

Posted on: 5/13 1:22
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Re: The Pandemic
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brewster wrote:
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Sutherland wrote:
I don't discount possibilities. But for now I just suspect a bad period. It's not like it's never happened.


It took decades and very broad demographic trends for the 70's to happen. Not saying its impossible, but there's very little data pointing in that direction. The great coastal cities are so absurdly overpriced they have a VERY long way to fall!

That said, I would not be surprised at a long term >25% correction here. The "natural" price of property should be at an equilibrium such that both renting and buying homes makes sense exclusive of the appreciation of said home. The cap rates of commercial and residential property have diverged dramatically for decades now. Time was it was normal to buy a small rental property for 4-6 times it's rent roll. That hasn't been seen in a long time outside of distressed assets.


I'm thinking NYC (and by extension its surrounding regions) will be ok in the long run. Most likely there will be a correction, but this sudden remote work arrangement has not been going on long enough for its problems to manifest. Creating new teams, hiring/onboarding, knowlege transfer, all of that is much more difficult remote. It's also very difficult to sustain morale and have common purpose completely disconnected.

We'll see more flexible policies, but remote work will not replace face to face interactions. IBM and Yahoo tried pioneering this and they ended up pulling back for reasons I listed above and calling everyone into the office. I'm sure there are many companies set up in smaller cities that have their eye on the Manhattan real estate market. Why have an office in Columbus OH when you can have presence in Manhattan?

Posted on: 5/12 20:59
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Posted on: 5/12 19:50
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