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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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jerseymom wrote:
MDM - any local updates for potential impact from Laura? Some of the models are showing it could pass over NJ.


Most models show the storm remnants passing south of us, then strengthening back to a tropical storm once it gets off shore. So so far, just some rain and clouds.

Weatherbell thinks there might be something threatening us around Labor Day though. No details yet.

Posted on: 8/26 21:18
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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It would just be a rainy day for us

Posted on: 8/25 14:27
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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MDM - any local updates for potential impact from Laura? Some of the models are showing it could pass over NJ.

Posted on: 8/25 13:42
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Thanks MDM. It looks like it is turning into a hurricane indeed. Hopefully not coming our way.... Btw on Isaias who was the best 5 days predictor?

Posted on: 8/18 23:18
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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A system came off of Africa that might track to the East coast late next week.


Just FYI

Posted on: 8/17 16:59
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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tern wrote:
So that's it over with for Jersey City?



Yup.. except for scattered showers and some wind.

Storm center is now just South of Albany.

Posted on: 8/4 20:21
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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So that's it over with for Jersey City?

Last week's storm was more intense, with all that loud thunder, that one didn't even have a name.

Robin.

Posted on: 8/4 19:11
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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At the time of this post, the storm center is just north of Philly and the major rain bands have moved away from us. It appears the storm is moving a bit faster than forecast.

Other than my lights flickering once and a couple drops of water through two skylights, this hasn't been so bad so far.

Posted on: 8/4 17:51
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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I guess we dodged the bullet this time! But there's still a couple of months to hurricane season....

Posted on: 8/4 15:53
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Thanks so much for these updates, MDM, this is a very valuable service you're performing. This updates around storm time are literally the only useful info that ever comes from this dumpster fire forum. Please consider cross posting these to Nextdoor and Reddit.

Posted on: 8/4 14:53
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Max wind gusts per NAM. I left out the Euro because I found out its wind gust predictions chronically over-estimate:


Resized Image

Posted on: 8/4 10:35
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Euro and NAM models shifted the storm West again... which is good for us. If this holds true, we have a wind event with not a whole lot of rain.

Euro Rain totals:
Resized Image


Euro Sustained Winds (peak). Looks like about 65 to 70 MPH (tan area in center).

Resized Image


NAM rain totals:

Resized Image


NAM sustained winds (at peak). Looks like about 60 MPH:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/4 10:21
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Quote:



How bad is this going to be vs. Sandy?


I imagine not as bad. Sandy had a number of factors that came together to make a super storm surge:

Big (wide) storm with a low pressure.

The storm took a 'hard left turn' coming up the coast, which drove surge towards the shore.

It came in during a king high tide.

If Sandy came in at low tide, it would have been nothing special for a Nor'Easter.

A real disaster would be a repeat of the 1821 hurricane which is estimated to have been a strong Cat 3 when it hit NYC. The storm surge flooded Manhattan past Canal St. That storm came in at low tide!

Posted on: 8/3 18:37
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Euro model lunchtime update:

Storm track shifted East. More wind less rain for us...

Rain Totals:
Resized Image


Max Sustained surface winds for us:
Resized Image


Looks like near 70 MPH for Long Island. 60+ MPH hits the Jersey Shore as the storm move up the coast.

Wind Gust Swath:
Resized Image

Gusts up to 90 MPH

Posted on: 8/3 18:29
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Looks like De Blasio is following MDM's weather report. It's time to batten down the hatches!

https://nypost.com/2020/08/03/nyc-sets ... of-tropical-storm-isaias/

Posted on: 8/3 15:57
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Quote:

MDM wrote:
I am trying to read NOAA's storm surge estimates. Best I can tell, it looks like +5 to 7 ft for us.



High Tide August 4th: 9:50 PM.

Eye-wall arrives around 8:00 PM.


How bad is this going to be vs. Sandy?

Posted on: 8/3 15:37
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
I am trying to read NOAA's storm surge estimates. Best I can tell, it looks like +5 to 7 ft for us.



High Tide August 4th: 9:50 PM.

Eye-wall arrives around 8:00 PM.

Posted on: 8/3 14:52
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Heads up: No driving in Hoboken allowed from Tuesday 8am to Wednesday 8am.

https://patch.com/new-jersey/hoboken/h ... n-area-tuesday-track-link

Posted on: 8/3 14:44
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Weatherbell has their track farther East, with a Cat 1 hitting middle of Long Island. Their track follows the HMON hurricane model. GIF of the HMON storm track with sustained surface winds:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/3 13:51
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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I am trying to read NOAA's storm surge estimates. Best I can tell, it looks like +5 to 7 ft for us.

Posted on: 8/3 13:38
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Latest from the Euro model:
Storm shifted West a bit. Speed of travel increased. Now the eye is passing just West of us.

Estimate Rain Totals:
Resized Image


Peak Sustained Surface Winds:
Resized Image


Wind gust swath:
Resized Image



The model has a choice for "Wind Gusts" and "Wind Gust Swath". Can't find anything that tells me exactly what the difference is. Though 'Wind Swath' shows higher numbers.

Posted on: 8/3 13:20
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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That is better for NJ - right? ????????

Posted on: 8/3 0:02
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Updated Euro model shifted the storm East. Eye landfall on Long Island. Below is estimated sustained surface winds:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/2 23:51
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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.
Thank you for your updates... always interesting.

Posted on: 8/2 18:01
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Weatherbell thinks the track will be more East with a Cat1 making landfall on Long Island:

Resized Image


Some of the models that just updated show the eye passing right over NYC. Euro model show a more westerly track.

A near bullseye hit on NYC put the heaviest rain bands inland:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/2 15:17
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Thank you for these updates MDM. Much appreciated. Have a great day.

Posted on: 8/2 13:53
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Morning update:

Models have the storm tracking farther West after making landfall in South Carolina. Far enough now that the major rains are West of JC also.


Resized Image

Posted on: 8/2 12:21
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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The models at the moment are tracking the storm farther West. If this hold true and you are in the downtown, I hope your sump pumps are in good working order (sorry Brewster)..


Updated Euro Model Rain Totals:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/1 23:21
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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As always - thanks for staying on top of this MDM. Looks like an interesting week ahead. Do you watch Tropical Tidbits?

Posted on: 8/1 13:59
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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I hope those models capture the higher ocean temperature in the rainfall total because we are way higher than normal especially in our area/LI so it could result in a bad soaking experience maybe not like Irene but close.

Posted on: 8/1 12:52
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