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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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tern wrote:
So that's it over with for Jersey City?



Yup.. except for scattered showers and some wind.

Storm center is now just South of Albany.

Posted on: 8/4 20:21
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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So that's it over with for Jersey City?

Last week's storm was more intense, with all that loud thunder, that one didn't even have a name.

Robin.

Posted on: 8/4 19:11
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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At the time of this post, the storm center is just north of Philly and the major rain bands have moved away from us. It appears the storm is moving a bit faster than forecast.

Other than my lights flickering once and a couple drops of water through two skylights, this hasn't been so bad so far.

Posted on: 8/4 17:51
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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I guess we dodged the bullet this time! But there's still a couple of months to hurricane season....

Posted on: 8/4 15:53
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Thanks so much for these updates, MDM, this is a very valuable service you're performing. This updates around storm time are literally the only useful info that ever comes from this dumpster fire forum. Please consider cross posting these to Nextdoor and Reddit.

Posted on: 8/4 14:53
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Max wind gusts per NAM. I left out the Euro because I found out its wind gust predictions chronically over-estimate:


Resized Image

Posted on: 8/4 10:35
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Euro and NAM models shifted the storm West again... which is good for us. If this holds true, we have a wind event with not a whole lot of rain.

Euro Rain totals:
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Euro Sustained Winds (peak). Looks like about 65 to 70 MPH (tan area in center).

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NAM rain totals:

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NAM sustained winds (at peak). Looks like about 60 MPH:

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Posted on: 8/4 10:21
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Quote:



How bad is this going to be vs. Sandy?


I imagine not as bad. Sandy had a number of factors that came together to make a super storm surge:

Big (wide) storm with a low pressure.

The storm took a 'hard left turn' coming up the coast, which drove surge towards the shore.

It came in during a king high tide.

If Sandy came in at low tide, it would have been nothing special for a Nor'Easter.

A real disaster would be a repeat of the 1821 hurricane which is estimated to have been a strong Cat 3 when it hit NYC. The storm surge flooded Manhattan past Canal St. That storm came in at low tide!

Posted on: 8/3 18:37
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Euro model lunchtime update:

Storm track shifted East. More wind less rain for us...

Rain Totals:
Resized Image


Max Sustained surface winds for us:
Resized Image


Looks like near 70 MPH for Long Island. 60+ MPH hits the Jersey Shore as the storm move up the coast.

Wind Gust Swath:
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Gusts up to 90 MPH

Posted on: 8/3 18:29
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Looks like De Blasio is following MDM's weather report. It's time to batten down the hatches!

https://nypost.com/2020/08/03/nyc-sets ... of-tropical-storm-isaias/

Posted on: 8/3 15:57
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Quote:

MDM wrote:
I am trying to read NOAA's storm surge estimates. Best I can tell, it looks like +5 to 7 ft for us.



High Tide August 4th: 9:50 PM.

Eye-wall arrives around 8:00 PM.


How bad is this going to be vs. Sandy?

Posted on: 8/3 15:37
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
I am trying to read NOAA's storm surge estimates. Best I can tell, it looks like +5 to 7 ft for us.



High Tide August 4th: 9:50 PM.

Eye-wall arrives around 8:00 PM.

Posted on: 8/3 14:52
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Heads up: No driving in Hoboken allowed from Tuesday 8am to Wednesday 8am.

https://patch.com/new-jersey/hoboken/h ... n-area-tuesday-track-link

Posted on: 8/3 14:44
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Weatherbell has their track farther East, with a Cat 1 hitting middle of Long Island. Their track follows the HMON hurricane model. GIF of the HMON storm track with sustained surface winds:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/3 13:51
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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I am trying to read NOAA's storm surge estimates. Best I can tell, it looks like +5 to 7 ft for us.

Posted on: 8/3 13:38
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Latest from the Euro model:
Storm shifted West a bit. Speed of travel increased. Now the eye is passing just West of us.

Estimate Rain Totals:
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Peak Sustained Surface Winds:
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Wind gust swath:
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The model has a choice for "Wind Gusts" and "Wind Gust Swath". Can't find anything that tells me exactly what the difference is. Though 'Wind Swath' shows higher numbers.

Posted on: 8/3 13:20
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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That is better for NJ - right? ????????

Posted on: 8/3 0:02
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Updated Euro model shifted the storm East. Eye landfall on Long Island. Below is estimated sustained surface winds:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/2 23:51
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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.
Thank you for your updates... always interesting.

Posted on: 8/2 18:01
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Weatherbell thinks the track will be more East with a Cat1 making landfall on Long Island:

Resized Image


Some of the models that just updated show the eye passing right over NYC. Euro model show a more westerly track.

A near bullseye hit on NYC put the heaviest rain bands inland:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/2 15:17
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Thank you for these updates MDM. Much appreciated. Have a great day.

Posted on: 8/2 13:53
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Morning update:

Models have the storm tracking farther West after making landfall in South Carolina. Far enough now that the major rains are West of JC also.


Resized Image

Posted on: 8/2 12:21
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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The models at the moment are tracking the storm farther West. If this hold true and you are in the downtown, I hope your sump pumps are in good working order (sorry Brewster)..


Updated Euro Model Rain Totals:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/1 23:21
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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As always - thanks for staying on top of this MDM. Looks like an interesting week ahead. Do you watch Tropical Tidbits?

Posted on: 8/1 13:59
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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I hope those models capture the higher ocean temperature in the rainfall total because we are way higher than normal especially in our area/LI so it could result in a bad soaking experience maybe not like Irene but close.

Posted on: 8/1 12:52
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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Estimated rain totals:

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/1 10:59
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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As of this morning, every single model I checked shows the storm coming up the coast. The cone centers are about+- 50 miles East / West of each other, which will make a big difference on what we get.

Moves West: Less wind, storm surge, but a lot more rain (like Irene or Floyd).

Moves East: More wind, more of a threat to Long Island and the coast in general from waves and storm surge..

So far the storm hasn't strengthened as some of the more dire forecasts predicted. As of now, it comes up in our area as a tropical storm and not a full blown hurricane.

Posted on: 8/1 10:47
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Re: Isaias Hurricane track
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As always - tanks for the updates! This could be a tedious experience.

Posted on: 7/31 14:53
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Isaias Hurricane track
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Based on the early models, the storm will be here around August 5th. Weatherbell has it making landfall in the US as a Cat 2 and coming up the coast fast as a Cat 1.

Most of the models show a similar track at this time. Again.. this is days out and the models will likely change some.


Resized Image

Posted on: 7/31 11:57
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