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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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maybe more and more jersey cities will consider consolidation in order to be run more efficiently. honestly, i don't understand why hudson and bergen counties don't consolidate into one hudson city which would still be smaller than manhattan.

maybe governor-elect murphy should establish a commission to force municipal consolidation.

Posted on: 12/18 19:24
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SOS wrote:
Things looking grim in wealthier NJ suburbs, anticipating no SALT deduction -

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/17/nyr ... -new-jersey-tax-bill.html

While I'm opposed to this tax bill on many grounds, including the removal of the SALT deduction, we won't really know how this affects NJ for some time.

For example: Livingston is an affluent suburb. While there are many middle class and fixed-income residents, the median income is $120,000 per household. That's double the national average, and nearly 50% higher than the NJ average.

It is entirely plausible middle-class residents will benefit from the increased standard deductible, while the wealthier residents will benefit from a variety of other tax breaks in the bill. We just don't know yet.

I.e. A report that "affluent suburbanites are terrorized!" doesn't tell us how their taxes will actually change.

Posted on: 12/18 15:28
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Dolomiti wrote:

Of course, you should feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and if you personally own in DTJC you should sell now. Right?


I live in DTJC as a renter... I have chosen to to sit out the market until things are clearer. Or, if things go sideways, until the dust settles somewhat.

We should know more by mid to late 2019, after the impact of the upcoming tax changes have been fully experienced.


Good luck trying to time the market. From Aesop, The Fox and the Grapes.


Meh. One thing is to try to time a market (local real estate, or the financial ones) and another is to simply choose to stay out of a situation that is clearly not quite stable with many moving parts and uncertain outcomes. But, sure.... sour grapes.

Posted on: 12/18 15:18
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Things looking grim in wealthier NJ suburbs, anticipating no SALT deduction -

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/17/nyr ... -new-jersey-tax-bill.html

Posted on: 12/18 14:42
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i predict that dtjc will be just fine...while some might sell, i belioeve that the nyc housing market will remain bouyant, sending plenty of "bargain" hunters over to jersey city. while taxes might be going up in dtjc, jc is still a bargain when all in costs of ownership are factored in. time will tell.

Posted on: 12/18 13:29
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Dolomiti wrote:

Of course, you should feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and if you personally own in DTJC you should sell now. Right?


I live in DTJC as a renter... I have chosen to to sit out the market until things are clearer. Or, if things go sideways, until the dust settles somewhat.

We should know more by mid to late 2019, after the impact of the upcoming tax changes have been fully experienced.


There are lot of moving parts to the Federal tax changes. Seems clear that for owner-occupiers in high tax locations the net effect of the changes – limit of 10k for the combination of state, local, income/sales and property tax is negative, making the reval’s impact more severe by increasing overall cost of ownership. However, deductions for property taxes on rental properties might remain deductible (fully or partly) to landlords’ businesses, as could the mortgage interest deduction – being a business expense. Then there’s the matter of how pass-through income for Type S corporations (LLC’s) will be treated.

At this point I’m not certain what made it into the final bill regarding investment real estate– something did as there was some commentary about how it appears very favorable to the president. In any event, it appears now that the tax changes for property tax deductions will be much less significant for landlords. Consequently, the impact of the reval increase looks to be a good deal LESS for landlords than owner-occupiers.

Owner occupiers in high tax areas might respond by renting their houses, and living in a rental themselves. You and your neighbor could “swap” houses, renting to each other, to obtain the favorable tax treatment accorded to landlords. Transfer ownership of your place to the “My place is for rent, LLC.” That would free up the entire 10k to use for state and local income taxes, make the property taxes deductible and as a bonus make the mortgage interest deductible. Obviously, all depends on the actual numbers.

Now that would be some unintended consequence – making the economics of changes for property tax deduction overall more favorable to “high” cost states…. There would be no point in a low tax state to try and turn your owner-occupied property into a rental - it wouldn’t increase your deductions. Of course it all depends on the specifics of the final bill. The devil is in the details, as they say….

Seems very tough to predict what the net, final impact will be on the JC housing market.

Posted on: 12/18 1:00
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Dolomiti wrote:

Of course, you should feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and if you personally own in DTJC you should sell now. Right?


I live in DTJC as a renter... I have chosen to to sit out the market until things are clearer. Or, if things go sideways, until the dust settles somewhat.

We should know more by mid to late 2019, after the impact of the upcoming tax changes have been fully experienced.


Good luck trying to time the market. From Aesop, The Fox and the Grapes.

One hot summer's day a Fox was strolling through an orchard till he came to a bunch of Grapes just ripening on a bine which had been trained over a lofty branch. ‘Just the thing to quench my thirst', quoth he. Drawing back a few paces, he took a run and a jump, and just missed the branch. Turning round with a One, Two, Three, he jumped up, but with no greater success. Again and again he tried after the tempting morsel, but at last had to give it up, and walked away with his nose in their air, saying: ‘I am sure they are sour.'

Posted on: 12/17 17:31
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Dolomiti wrote:

Of course, you should feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and if you personally own in DTJC you should sell now. Right?


I live in DTJC as a renter... I have chosen to to sit out the market until things are clearer. Or, if things go sideways, until the dust settles somewhat.

We should know more by mid to late 2019, after the impact of the upcoming tax changes have been fully experienced.

Posted on: 12/17 16:55
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bodhipooh wrote:
Well, now that it is a guarantee that the tax reform bill will be passed, we have enough details to know there will be some severe impact on homeownership in our area....

** yawn **

Those federal tax changes are going to hit the entire NYC area and beyond; and inventory is so tight that properties forced on the market by the reval will be snapped up quickly. In other words, the same forces which have driven up DTJC real estate for years have not gone away.

And if the market can handle years of double-digit growth in real estate value (and years of predictions of DOOOOOM for DTJC), it can survive the reval.

Of course, you should feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and if you personally own in DTJC you should sell now. Right?

Posted on: 12/17 15:49
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I do not expect a full-blown crash. I do think there will be some churn, some instability, and probably a drop in values as some people feel forced to dump properties they are suddenly not able to afford. But, Jersey City is very enticing for many people, and not just financial refugees from NYC. But, there are a few factors that give me pause, and we will have to wait to see what happens. An elimination or capping of mortgage or SALT deduction, plus the uncertain state of school / BOE taxes (you can be certain that if we end up with a 1.6% tax rate, Trenton and many municipalities will be pushing for JC to take on a larger share of the local BOE budget) and there is the fact that we are in a 10-year period since the last correction/recession.


There's a whole lot of moving parts in this machine, and many of them have the potential to affect the market. As for the DT school situation, I hope the overflow is temporary and more schools are coming, didn't some of the abatement deals include school space? I think the district was irresponsible not leasing the Resurrection School on 7th when the Diocese closed it, they must have seen this coming.


Well, now that it is a guarantee that the tax reform bill will be passed, we have enough details to know there will be some severe impact on homeownership in our area: SALT deductions will be capped at 10K, and mortgage interest deduction will be limited to payments on debt of 750K. I think it is hard (impossible?) to argue that there will not be a negative impact in local real estate values (at least in the short term and, quite likely, long term) as people in DTJC are faced with a significant tax increase, coupled with the loss of state income tax deduction, and the double whammy of a cap on both the mortgage interest and property tax deductions.

Posted on: 12/17 15:02
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Have you looked at any comps recently? Things have gone through the roof,


I am possibly under assessed on one property... a 3 family in the Heights with an NYC view. Somehow, I never got re-assessed after renovating the place.

My other 3 properties, I got hosed. The tax assessor really hammered me. My other 3 family in the Heights is over $12k in taxes. My 4 family is over $25k (would have been worse if I didn't win my tax appeal 10 years back). Back then, I didn't know about the 5 year abatement. Will be applying for the abatement when I do (budget willing) the siding upgrades next spring.

Posted on: 12/16 21:21
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MDM wrote:
At 1.62% I am looking at a significant cut in my taxes, even after adjusting my appraised value up significantly. For me this will be a savings of $10k to $15k a year (multiple properties).

That will cover most of my son's tuition, once he is old enough to attend school.


Have you looked at any comps recently? Things have gone through the roof, I'm not at all certain that I'll see reductions in my Heights properties. Zillow says my 3U paying $8k is worth >700k, 1.6% means $11,200!!!

Posted on: 12/16 11:58
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At 1.62% I am looking at a significant cut in my taxes, even after adjusting my appraised value up significantly. For me this will be a savings of $10k to $15k a year (multiple properties).

That will cover most of my son's tuition, once he is old enough to attend school.

Posted on: 12/16 11:28
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Disagree on private schools. There is a whole culture to being a part of the A tier private schools - Dalton, Trinity, Brearley, etc. For those in that world price is not the consideration, the snob factor and community with other richie parents are. The JC area and Hoboken private schools aren't in the same universe. Sure they are perfectly decent and send kids to Ivies. I don't think too many people are making moving decisions around Stevens or St. Peters.

Posted on: 12/16 9:26
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I do not expect a full-blown crash. I do think there will be some churn, some instability, and probably a drop in values as some people feel forced to dump properties they are suddenly not able to afford. But, Jersey City is very enticing for many people, and not just financial refugees from NYC. But, there are a few factors that give me pause, and we will have to wait to see what happens. An elimination or capping of mortgage or SALT deduction, plus the uncertain state of school / BOE taxes (you can be certain that if we end up with a 1.6% tax rate, Trenton and many municipalities will be pushing for JC to take on a larger share of the local BOE budget) and there is the fact that we are in a 10-year period since the last correction/recession.


There's a whole lot of moving parts in this machine, and many of them have the potential to affect the market. As for the DT school situation, I hope the overflow is temporary and more schools are coming, didn't some of the abatement deals include school space? I think the district was irresponsible not leasing the Resurrection School on 7th when the Diocese closed it, they must have seen this coming.

Posted on: 12/15 23:58
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As for "who cares about kids"... precisely the people that you highlight as not caring about kids (those childless by choice, or perhaps single) are precisely the kind of people who often find it objectionable to have to pay such high taxes when getting nothing in return! Often times, the people with kids choose to move further out into the burbs because, well, if you are going to pay 25 - 30 K annually in taxes, you "might as well get something out of it".


But the 1.6% property tax rate is less than the burbs. Why would someone without kids move to the burbs only to pay higher school taxes? If the burbs had a lower property tax rate, I could see where you have a point but the reverse is true.

I have no doubt there will be some people priced out of downtown Jersey City, but I also have no doubt there will be many more people moving into downtown Jersey City (from Manhattan and Brooklyn). I don't see a market crash because of the reval.



I do not expect a full-blown crash. I do think there will be some churn, some instability, and probably a drop in values as some people feel forced to dump properties they are suddenly not able to afford. But, Jersey City is very enticing for many people, and not just financial refugees from NYC. But, there are a few factors that give me pause, and we will have to wait to see what happens. An elimination or capping of mortgage or SALT deduction, plus the uncertain state of school / BOE taxes (you can be certain that if we end up with a 1.6% tax rate, Trenton and many municipalities will be pushing for JC to take on a larger share of the local BOE budget) and there is the fact that we are in a 10-year period since the last correction/recession. Ideally, none of those three things will come to pass, but if one or two or all three come to be, well... all bets are off. The 2007 situation was bad (assuredly, DTJC fared better than the rest of JC, and recovered quickly) so a combination of all these factors could be brutal. But, long term, JC is likely to have a very bright future. Enough change has taken place and I think the city will be fine.


Agreed on federal capping of the SALT deduction and Trenton pushing for JC to take on larger share of BOE budget. To me, these are much bigger stories than the reval.

I also accept that the 1.62% tax rate produced by the reval and possible changes to the school funding aid formula, are indirectly related, as stateaidguy predicted.

Posted on: 12/15 21:17
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As for "who cares about kids"... precisely the people that you highlight as not caring about kids (those childless by choice, or perhaps single) are precisely the kind of people who often find it objectionable to have to pay such high taxes when getting nothing in return! Often times, the people with kids choose to move further out into the burbs because, well, if you are going to pay 25 - 30 K annually in taxes, you "might as well get something out of it".


But the 1.6% property tax rate is less than the burbs. Why would someone without kids move to the burbs only to pay higher school taxes? If the burbs had a lower property tax rate, I could see where you have a point but the reverse is true.

I have no doubt there will be some people priced out of downtown Jersey City, but I also have no doubt there will be many more people moving into downtown Jersey City (from Manhattan and Brooklyn). I don't see a market crash because of the reval.



I do not expect a full-blown crash. I do think there will be some churn, some instability, and probably a drop in values as some people feel forced to dump properties they are suddenly not able to afford. But, Jersey City is very enticing for many people, and not just financial refugees from NYC. But, there are a few factors that give me pause, and we will have to wait to see what happens. An elimination or capping of mortgage or SALT deduction, plus the uncertain state of school / BOE taxes (you can be certain that if we end up with a 1.6% tax rate, Trenton and many municipalities will be pushing for JC to take on a larger share of the local BOE budget) and there is the fact that we are in a 10-year period since the last correction/recession. Ideally, none of those three things will come to pass, but if one or two or all three come to be, well... all bets are off. The 2007 situation was bad (assuredly, DTJC fared better than the rest of JC, and recovered quickly) so a combination of all these factors could be brutal. But, long term, JC is likely to have a very bright future. Enough change has taken place and I think the city will be fine.

Posted on: 12/15 21:02
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As for "who cares about kids"... precisely the people that you highlight as not caring about kids (those childless by choice, or perhaps single) are precisely the kind of people who often find it objectionable to have to pay such high taxes when getting nothing in return! Often times, the people with kids choose to move further out into the burbs because, well, if you are going to pay 25 - 30 K annually in taxes, you "might as well get something out of it".


But the 1.6% property tax rate is less than the burbs. Why would someone without kids move to the burbs only to pay higher school taxes? If the burbs had a lower property tax rate, I could see where you have a point but the reverse is true.

I have no doubt there will be some people priced out of downtown Jersey City, but I also have no doubt there will be many more people moving into downtown Jersey City (from Manhattan and Brooklyn). I don't see a market crash because of the reval.


Posted on: 12/15 19:38
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Also, how could anyone whos taxes arent increasing / substantially dropping (greenville & west side) complain that downtown isnt paying enough ? Seems like everyone wants a free ride these days


Again with this? You obviously don't get it. This new (estimated) numbers show what most have been claiming for years now: that DTJC had been underpaying their taxes to the detriment of poorer residents in areas that have seen little or no appreciation.


Yes I realize that genius - and reductions in taxes for Greenville \ Westside are totally warranted, but how is 1.6% multiplier for downtown not enough tho ? Hence free rides


Like I said, you just don't get it. The ~1.6% rate is what EVERYONE will be paying once the reval is concluded. People have been complaining until now because the effective rate being paid my many/most of DTJC was often 1% or lower, while other areas, like Greenville, were paying closer to 5-6%, which is why they are seeing such a substantial drop in their average payment.

It all in the assessment the rate will be $16 per $1000 of assessed value.

Posted on: 12/15 18:17
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Dolmoti is spot on. Tight inventory and high demand will soften the blow to DTJC RE in the short term. Longer term it's tough to say. 1.6% is less than I was expecting so frankly it could have been worse for DTJC.

The real issue is will DTJC buyers pay suburb level taxes for lousy city services (iffy schools). Trump's tax plan ain't making the case any easier. Taxes are sunk costs, owners aren't building equity with those payments.

My take is DTJC is overvalued as are stock markets and RE in general. I think if the other bubbles deflate DTJC will take it a bit harder than average. As always tough to know when or if other bubbles pop...


No one cares about schools. You're either living the life with no children or sending your kids to private schools if you can afford a $7,000 a month mortgage payment.

Downtown prices will continue to appreciate because they're still a bargain compared to New York City prices.


I am not so sure I agree with this take. Take an upper middle class family, paying 5K for monthly mortgage, now add 2K for taxes, and if they have a kid that's another 2K for private school. That's 9K / month. Or, you can go to BK, or even Manhattan, and be able to get an 8K mortgage, with almost negligible property taxes (definitely below 1K for that mortgage) and free schooling and you end up spending the same or less in NYC, with better city services at your disposal. At some point, the combination of crazy property taxes + shitty city services + private schools starts to bridge the gap in real estate costs.


What's missing from your calculation is the NYC income tax that all NYC residents must pay and that can be easily avoided by living in Jersey. And who cares about kids? The folks moving here could be on permanent birth control or same sex and quality of schools have exactly zero influence on their decision to buy.

The beauty of this discussion is we will find out relatively soon who is right and I hope every posts is bumped a year from now to see who was right and who got it painfully wrong.

In my opinion, prices should have plummeted already if prices were expected to fall in the near future.



Agreed about the NYC personal income tax being a bit of an equalizer. But, again, for someone making 200K, the ~7K "penalty" may be easier to swallow over a 24K property tax bill.

As for "who cares about kids"... precisely the people that you highlight as not caring about kids (those childless by choice, or perhaps single) are precisely the kind of people who often find it objectionable to have to pay such high taxes when getting nothing in return! Often times, the people with kids choose to move further out into the burbs because, well, if you are going to pay 25 - 30 K annually in taxes, you "might as well get something out of it".

Posted on: 12/15 17:33
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At some point, the combination of crazy property taxes + shitty city services + private schools starts to bridge the gap in real estate costs.


Not really the focus of this thread, but I think you overstate the school situation. Especially DT, the k-8s are not bad to quite good. Add to that the charters, magnet middle schools and McNair, if your kid is on the ball they can get a pretty good education.

We know very few children of college educated parents who didn't get into one of the magnet HS, even if it's County Prep, considered the least of them. A grade school friend of my son's who didn't get into McNair or HT and went there is now a Freshman in physics at Carnegie-Mellon. Not too shabby.


You should check out some of the NextDoor threads about schools, and the over capacity problem. There are many parents shitting bricks after getting notices that their kids will be getting bussed to another school, particularly when the other school is one they consider to be in the ghetto or inferior (their words, not mine) so I don't think that factor can be so easily dismissed. Right, or wrong, perception is a problem, and for parents unable to get their kids into one of the better K-8 schools due to capacity problems, they will then have to weigh private school, which is a pricey proposition in JC (last I looked, most were about 2K /month).

Posted on: 12/15 17:26
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Not many private school options in this area and none of them compare well to NYC or BK private schools.


Umm, you don't know what you're talking about. Hudson School in Hoboken is excellent and a bargain compared to Manhattan schools. Kids from there go to top colleges. St Peters has boys spending an hour on the train coming there from the burbs.

Posted on: 12/15 17:06
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Not many private school options in this area and none of them compare well to NYC or BK private schools. JC is still only an option for the bargain hunters/adventurers. Snobs will be in NYC or BK.

JC will always be a second derivative of NYC. So vacuum analysis is correct. I still think the all in costs post tax changes will be an anchor for DTJC...


Posted on: 12/15 17:02
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At some point, the combination of crazy property taxes + shitty city services + private schools starts to bridge the gap in real estate costs.


Not really the focus of this thread, but I think you overstate the school situation. Especially DT, the k-8s are not bad to quite good. Add to that the charters, magnet middle schools and McNair, if your kid is on the ball they can get a pretty good education.

We know very few children of college educated parents who didn't get into one of the magnet HS, even if it's County Prep, considered the least of them. A grade school friend of my son's who didn't get into McNair or HT and went there is now a Freshman in physics at Carnegie-Mellon. Not too shabby.

Posted on: 12/15 16:40
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Dolmoti is spot on. Tight inventory and high demand will soften the blow to DTJC RE in the short term. Longer term it's tough to say. 1.6% is less than I was expecting so frankly it could have been worse for DTJC.

The real issue is will DTJC buyers pay suburb level taxes for lousy city services (iffy schools). Trump's tax plan ain't making the case any easier. Taxes are sunk costs, owners aren't building equity with those payments.

My take is DTJC is overvalued as are stock markets and RE in general. I think if the other bubbles deflate DTJC will take it a bit harder than average. As always tough to know when or if other bubbles pop...


No one cares about schools. You're either living the life with no children or sending your kids to private schools if you can afford a $7,000 a month mortgage payment.

Downtown prices will continue to appreciate because they're still a bargain compared to New York City prices.


I am not so sure I agree with this take. Take an upper middle class family, paying 5K for monthly mortgage, now add 2K for taxes, and if they have a kid that's another 2K for private school. That's 9K / month. Or, you can go to BK, or even Manhattan, and be able to get an 8K mortgage, with almost negligible property taxes (definitely below 1K for that mortgage) and free schooling and you end up spending the same or less in NYC, with better city services at your disposal. At some point, the combination of crazy property taxes + shitty city services + private schools starts to bridge the gap in real estate costs.


What's missing from your calculation is the NYC income tax that all NYC residents must pay and that can be easily avoided by living in Jersey. And who cares about kids? The folks moving here could be on permanent birth control or same sex and quality of schools have exactly zero influence on their decision to buy.

The beauty of this discussion is we will find out relatively soon who is right and I hope every posts is bumped a year from now to see who was right and who got it painfully wrong.

In my opinion, prices should have plummeted already if prices were expected to fall in the near future.


Posted on: 12/15 14:04
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Dolmoti is spot on. Tight inventory and high demand will soften the blow to DTJC RE in the short term. Longer term it's tough to say. 1.6% is less than I was expecting so frankly it could have been worse for DTJC.

The real issue is will DTJC buyers pay suburb level taxes for lousy city services (iffy schools). Trump's tax plan ain't making the case any easier. Taxes are sunk costs, owners aren't building equity with those payments.

My take is DTJC is overvalued as are stock markets and RE in general. I think if the other bubbles deflate DTJC will take it a bit harder than average. As always tough to know when or if other bubbles pop...


No one cares about schools. You're either living the life with no children or sending your kids to private schools if you can afford a $7,000 a month mortgage payment.

Downtown prices will continue to appreciate because they're still a bargain compared to New York City prices.


I am not so sure I agree with this take. Take an upper middle class family, paying 5K for monthly mortgage, now add 2K for taxes, and if they have a kid that's another 2K for private school. That's 9K / month. Or, you can go to BK, or even Manhattan, and be able to get an 8K mortgage, with almost negligible property taxes (definitely below 1K for that mortgage) and free schooling and you end up spending the same or less in NYC, with better city services at your disposal. At some point, the combination of crazy property taxes + shitty city services + private schools starts to bridge the gap in real estate costs.

Posted on: 12/15 13:44
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Also, how could anyone whos taxes arent increasing / substantially dropping (greenville & west side) complain that downtown isnt paying enough ? Seems like everyone wants a free ride these days


Again with this? You obviously don't get it. This new (estimated) numbers show what most have been claiming for years now: that DTJC had been underpaying their taxes to the detriment of poorer residents in areas that have seen little or no appreciation.


Yes I realize that genius - and reductions in taxes for Greenville \ Westside are totally warranted, but how is 1.6% multiplier for downtown not enough tho ? Hence free rides


Like I said, you just don't get it. The ~1.6% rate is what EVERYONE will be paying once the reval is concluded. People have been complaining until now because the effective rate being paid my many/most of DTJC was often 1% or lower, while other areas, like Greenville, were paying closer to 5-6%, which is why they are seeing such a substantial drop in their average payment.

Posted on: 12/15 13:37
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Jersey City's real estate valuations can't be viewed in a vacuum...


Nailed it.

Posted on: 12/15 12:55
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So you've got softening demand plus increased supply...seems to be a good predictor of lower average RE prices through 2018.

Sure. But... so what?

DTJC prices have been on a tear for years. A 10-20% drop in prices will hurt, but it's not like thousands of DTJC sellers will be underwater.

The increase in supply will be short-lived, probably most of 2019. I for one doubt that supply will vastly outstrip demand in the short term, and definitely not in the long term. (There are currently 170 units for sale in 07302; let's see how that changes over the next 3 years....)

Oh, and DTCJ != All Of JC. Other neighborhoods, some of which are already gentrifying, should see reductions in their property taxes, which should mean a rise in demand and their home values.


Posted on: 12/15 12:41
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From a supply side - I'm assuming supply will not go down (i.e. they will not tear down any buildings) - if anything supply will increase as some people will not be willing or able to absorb such a dramatic increase in taxes, and will look to move to lower cost areas.


Your mistake here is that supply is largely dependent on people selling, and in a downmarket people are reluctant to sell. This is why there's so much stickiness in RE, it takes a while for the people who HAVE to sell to set new comps.

Posted on: 12/15 11:50
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