jc201jc wrote:
I don't see a way that the increase in DTJC taxes in conjunction with the proposed changes to the federal tax laws will be offset by local market economics. The main reason that the RE market economics in DTJC have operated this way is because net expenses (principal + interest + taxes - tax shield savings) have made it attractive to purchase.

From a demand side, in 2018 you'll be paying significantly more out of pocket on a monthly basis due to the tax reval, and this pain will be magnified by also getting less $$ back at the end of the year from your tax return. This combined effect will have a marked downward effect on demand.

From a supply side - I'm assuming supply will not go down (i.e. they will not tear down any buildings) - if anything supply will increase as some people will not be willing or able to absorb such a dramatic increase in taxes, and will look to move to lower cost areas.

So you've got softening demand plus increased supply...seems to be a good predictor of lower average RE prices through 2018.

mfadam wrote:
Dolmoti is spot on. Tight inventory and high demand will soften the blow to DTJC RE in the short term. Longer term it's tough to say. 1.6% is less than I was expecting so frankly it could have been worse for DTJC.

The real issue is will DTJC buyers pay suburb level taxes for lousy city services (iffy schools). Trump's tax plan ain't making the case any easier. Taxes are sunk costs, owners aren't building equity with those payments.

My take is DTJC is overvalued as are stock markets and RE in general. I think if the other bubbles deflate DTJC will take it a bit harder than average. As always tough to know when or if other bubbles pop...

thor800 wrote:
Yes I realize that genius - and reductions in taxes for Greenville \ Westside are totally warranted, but how is 1.6% multiplier for downtown not enough tho ? Hence free rides

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

thor800 wrote:

Also, how could anyone whos taxes arent increasing / substantially dropping (greenville & west side) complain that downtown isnt paying enough ? Seems like everyone wants a free ride these days

Again with this? You obviously don't get it. This new (estimated) numbers show what most have been claiming for years now: that DTJC had been underpaying their taxes to the detriment of poorer residents in areas that have seen little or no appreciation.

jc201jc wrote:
http://www.cityofjerseycity.com/RevaluationUpdate

if you click "1-4 family neighborhood analysis" on the bottom of the page, it opens a PDF with average tax increases by neighborhood. Downtown JC taxes are looking to go up by 50% (unless I'm misinterpreting the table). But...tell me again how the housing prices won't be affected by this?

JCGuys wrote:
http://jerseycity.hosted.civiclive.co ... ily%20NBHD%20Analysis.pdf

JC Heights - Western slope to see 25% reduction on average
$6,580 avg tax bill from $8,845

Greenville to see 40-50% declines in average property taxes

Paulus Hook is screwed with 75% increase!

$16,591 to $29,026 in average property tax bill

WOW

thor800 wrote:

Also, how could anyone whos taxes arent increasing / substantially dropping (greenville & west side) complain that downtown isnt paying enough ? Seems like everyone wants a free ride these days

JCGuys wrote:
The value of vacant land is much less than I thought it would be...

dr_nick_riviera wrote:
Can someone explain the distinction between the Downtown section and the "12 UNITS OR LESS(Resi NBHDs)" on this document here?

http://jerseycity.hosted.civiclive.co ... ndo%20NBHD%20Analysis.pdf

Average increase for Downtown condos looks to be 30% but the "12 UNITS OR LESS(Resi NBHDs)" is about 10%. Does this mean that smaller, walkup condo buildings in Downtown can expect an increase of less than 30%?

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

jc201jc wrote:
http://www.cityofjerseycity.com/RevaluationUpdate

if you click "1-4 family neighborhood analysis" on the bottom of the page, it opens a PDF with average tax increases by neighborhood. Downtown JC taxes are looking to go up by 50% (unless I'm misinterpreting the table). But...tell me again how the housing prices won't be affected by this?

Going by the document, it looks like the increases in DTJC are anywhere from mid 50% to 75%, with the sole exception of the Van Leer neighborhood (WTF is that?) which is expected to go up by only 41%.

Interesting... I expected DT to get even higher increases. But, overall, the picture is bleak for the administration in terms of optics. Just as had been argued and pointed out multiple times prior to the reval, the current tax situation was a reverse Robin Hood scenario, and the numbers are damning. EVERY neighborhood outside of DTJC is going to see reductions, some quite substantial, with five rare exceptions, expected to have minor increases, three of which are under 5%.

And, it seems like they are expecting the tax rate to come out at about 1.62%. While that is welcome news for the DTJC homeowners, it is likely bad overall for the city, as pressure is likely to increase to force JC to take on a larger share of the local school budget if the property tax rate is so low compared to other NJ towns. At 2%, the city could argue that anything higher was a huge burden on residents, but at 1.6%, I believe that would be one of the absolute lowest property tax rates in the state (outside of Cape May county) and makes us a target for increased pressure.

brewster wrote:
Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Anyway, really interested to see what others have to say/opine about the property tax rate potentially coming out at 1.62% and what the implications may be for our city and residents.

So many moving targets it's hard to guess where it'll end up. Is the rate vs home value a zero sum game where your increase stays the same? My DT taxes are $17k, I won't be surprised if they double, but I've done well over 20 years on value and rents. I'm sure I'd be less zen if I bought recently.

bodhipooh wrote:
Anyway, really interested to see what others have to say/opine about the property tax rate potentially coming out at 1.62% and what the implications may be for our city and residents.

brewster wrote:
Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Going by the document, it looks like the increases in DTJC are anywhere from mid 50% to 75%, with the sole exception of the Van Leer neighborhood (WTF is that?) which is expected to go up by only 41%.

I believe Van Leer is the area by 18th & Coles, where a chocolate factory once stood.

As for AMo, you can't expect everyone to recall every detail of every thread, even if they read it. This is not a "true names" site, no one should be called out for anonymity, though civility would be nice (excepting extreme provocations like mealymouthed hypocrisy).

bodhipooh wrote:
Going by the document, it looks like the increases in DTJC are anywhere from mid 50% to 75%, with the sole exception of the Van Leer neighborhood (WTF is that?) which is expected to go up by only 41%.

jc201jc wrote:
http://www.cityofjerseycity.com/RevaluationUpdate

if you click "1-4 family neighborhood analysis" on the bottom of the page, it opens a PDF with average tax increases by neighborhood. Downtown JC taxes are looking to go up by 50% (unless I'm misinterpreting the table). But...tell me again how the housing prices won't be affected by this?

brewster wrote:
Quote:

AMo wrote:
So what I don't do is respond to attacks from people too cowardly to identify themselves.

You seem pretty anonymous to me, AMo. Plenty of people know who I am, but I can't claim to not be anonymous here.

AMo wrote:
So what I don't do is respond to attacks from people too cowardly to identify themselves.

AMo wrote:
So what I don't do is respond to attacks from people too cowardly to identify themselves.

AMo wrote:
The cost of the Mayor's purely political delay (the court called his claims "frivolous) is actually closer to five million dollars if you add the 1.2 million more charged by the second company. During the four years of this political stunt, a good part of the city (mostly the poorer parts) were over-taxed. That's what I call moving Jersey City forward. A true progressive.