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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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Jersey City's real estate valuations can't be viewed in a vacuum. The strength of Manhattan (and Brooklyn) RE markets blows the crap out of all other federal, state and local variables.

Reval is irrelevant to them because it's still 2/3rd the cost.

Posted on: 12/15 10:08
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jc201jc wrote:
I don't see a way that the increase in DTJC taxes in conjunction with the proposed changes to the federal tax laws will be offset by local market economics. The main reason that the RE market economics in DTJC have operated this way is because net expenses (principal + interest + taxes - tax shield savings) have made it attractive to purchase.

From a demand side, in 2018 you'll be paying significantly more out of pocket on a monthly basis due to the tax reval, and this pain will be magnified by also getting less $$ back at the end of the year from your tax return. This combined effect will have a marked downward effect on demand.

From a supply side - I'm assuming supply will not go down (i.e. they will not tear down any buildings) - if anything supply will increase as some people will not be willing or able to absorb such a dramatic increase in taxes, and will look to move to lower cost areas.

So you've got softening demand plus increased supply...seems to be a good predictor of lower average RE prices through 2018.


We shall see within 1 year if this prediction is correct. I have no doubt there will be several DTJC property owners that will be priced out of their homes but there will be twice as many Manhattan expats that will notice the bargains in Jersey City compared to similarly-sized homes in the city.

Posted on: 12/15 10:04
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I don't see a way that the increase in DTJC taxes in conjunction with the proposed changes to the federal tax laws will be offset by local market economics. The main reason that the RE market economics in DTJC have operated this way is because net expenses (principal + interest + taxes - tax shield savings) have made it attractive to purchase.

From a demand side, in 2018 you'll be paying significantly more out of pocket on a monthly basis due to the tax reval, and this pain will be magnified by also getting less $$ back at the end of the year from your tax return. This combined effect will have a marked downward effect on demand.

From a supply side - I'm assuming supply will not go down (i.e. they will not tear down any buildings) - if anything supply will increase as some people will not be willing or able to absorb such a dramatic increase in taxes, and will look to move to lower cost areas.

So you've got softening demand plus increased supply...seems to be a good predictor of lower average RE prices through 2018.

Posted on: 12/15 10:02
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mfadam wrote:
Dolmoti is spot on. Tight inventory and high demand will soften the blow to DTJC RE in the short term. Longer term it's tough to say. 1.6% is less than I was expecting so frankly it could have been worse for DTJC.

The real issue is will DTJC buyers pay suburb level taxes for lousy city services (iffy schools). Trump's tax plan ain't making the case any easier. Taxes are sunk costs, owners aren't building equity with those payments.

My take is DTJC is overvalued as are stock markets and RE in general. I think if the other bubbles deflate DTJC will take it a bit harder than average. As always tough to know when or if other bubbles pop...


No one cares about schools. You're either living the life with no children or sending your kids to private schools if you can afford a $7,000 a month mortgage payment.

Downtown prices will continue to appreciate because they're still a bargain compared to New York City prices.

Posted on: 12/15 9:58
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Dolmoti is spot on. Tight inventory and high demand will soften the blow to DTJC RE in the short term. Longer term it's tough to say. 1.6% is less than I was expecting so frankly it could have been worse for DTJC.

The real issue is will DTJC buyers pay suburb level taxes for lousy city services (iffy schools). Trump's tax plan ain't making the case any easier. Taxes are sunk costs, owners aren't building equity with those payments.

My take is DTJC is overvalued as are stock markets and RE in general. I think if the other bubbles deflate DTJC will take it a bit harder than average. As always tough to know when or if other bubbles pop...

Posted on: 12/15 9:45
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Excellent analysis Dolomiti. The punchline is that if this had happened on schedule it would have been right at the beginning of the hottest part of this cycle and been absorbed easily. Now, this blow will fall at the same time as rising rates, federal tax issues, and a likely general RE market correction, if not a stock market burst and recession. Things are very bubbly on all fronts.

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thor800 wrote:
Yes I realize that genius - and reductions in taxes for Greenville \ Westside are totally warranted, but how is 1.6% multiplier for downtown not enough tho ? Hence free rides


How do you still not understand how this works? That 1.6 is the TAX RATE applied citywide, the properties will have already had their assessments corrected by the reval. DT will have risen more than elsewhere, resulting in DT getting a tax hike.

Posted on: 12/14 22:07
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thor800 wrote:

Also, how could anyone whos taxes arent increasing / substantially dropping (greenville & west side) complain that downtown isnt paying enough ? Seems like everyone wants a free ride these days


Again with this? You obviously don't get it. This new (estimated) numbers show what most have been claiming for years now: that DTJC had been underpaying their taxes to the detriment of poorer residents in areas that have seen little or no appreciation.


Yes I realize that genius - and reductions in taxes for Greenville \ Westside are totally warranted, but how is 1.6% multiplier for downtown not enough tho ? Hence free rides

Posted on: 12/14 22:01
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jc201jc wrote:
http://www.cityofjerseycity.com/RevaluationUpdate

if you click "1-4 family neighborhood analysis" on the bottom of the page, it opens a PDF with average tax increases by neighborhood. Downtown JC taxes are looking to go up by 50% (unless I'm misinterpreting the table). But...tell me again how the housing prices won't be affected by this?

I'll give it a whirl

Let's start by looking at the aggregate. Most of downtown is underpaying property tax; most of the rest of JC is overpaying property tax. DT buildings will pay more (as noted above, 50-75% seems likely) -- but property taxes will drop in other parts of town. On average, it ought to more or less average out, especially for areas near JSQ which are starting to gentrify.


Next, let's look at a situation where property taxes will increase by what we expect is a typical amount (around 60%).

We'll look at a DTJC single-family home on the market for $1.5 million. 3 beds, 2 baths, backyard, renovated etc. Assuming 20% down, a likely monthly mortgage payment is $5500/month. Property taxes are $10,000 per year. Their annual costs are $76,000 per year.

After the reval, they will now pay $24,000 per year. Their annual housing costs are now $90,000 a year. That's an increase of $1160/month. I can see how that can cause someone to seriously consider moving.

If we try to offset the entire cost of property taxes by reducing the home price, and thus the mortgage, the new price would be around $1.2 million.

At the same time, property taxes in other parts of JC will fall, and presumably become more attractive.

Will the owner drop the price by nearly 20%? That's certainly possible. Would the owner be upset? Probably. However, that's also only about 1 year of unrealized gains, and a much softer blow than 2007-2008.

However, inventory in DJTC is still very tight. My understanding is that demand vastly outstrips supply, and properties don't remain on the market long. I suspect that some buyers are discouraged by the lack of inventory, and look elsewhere. If inventory increases in 2019, those properties will be snapped up quickly, and prices will resume their upward trend. Demand may be so high that prices drop far less than 20% -- or might not drop at all.


Another way to put this is: The lack of revaluations over the years has caused home prices to become unfair and inequitable. DTJC real estate values are higher than they ought to be, and other areas are lower than they ought to be, because DT owners have received a tax break at the expense of their poorer neighbors. The reval could make both property tax and home values more fair overall.


Posted on: 12/14 21:21
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This whole nonsense that downtown is underpaying while tax abated properties, nearly a third of the city's ratables, will not get an increase and artificially raises that tax rate since they are not ratables. If you want fair taxes, stop giving out abatements. The rest of Hudson County has been enjoying developments and rarely uses tax abatements.

Posted on: 12/14 20:20
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JCGuys wrote:
http://jerseycity.hosted.civiclive.co ... ily%20NBHD%20Analysis.pdf

JC Heights - Western slope to see 25% reduction on average
$6,580 avg tax bill from $8,845

Greenville to see 40-50% declines in average property taxes

Paulus Hook is screwed with 75% increase!

$16,591 to $29,026 in average property tax bill

WOW

That's a nice savings, and it's about time !

Posted on: 12/14 19:00
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thor800 wrote:

Also, how could anyone whos taxes arent increasing / substantially dropping (greenville & west side) complain that downtown isnt paying enough ? Seems like everyone wants a free ride these days


Again with this? You obviously don't get it. This new (estimated) numbers show what most have been claiming for years now: that DTJC had been underpaying their taxes to the detriment of poorer residents in areas that have seen little or no appreciation.

Posted on: 12/14 17:32
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JCGuys wrote:
The value of vacant land is much less than I thought it would be...


This is something I'm extremely suspicious of in the traditional assessments. I recently read an article talking about how high Urban home prices are function of extremely high land value proportional to construction costs. But here the assessments are exactly reversed. Where it really becomes an issue is abatements, where only the tax on the Improvement is abated, not the land value.

Posted on: 12/14 16:19
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http://jerseycity.hosted.civiclive.co ... ily%20NBHD%20Analysis.pdf

JC Heights - Western slope to see 25% reduction on average
$6,580 avg tax bill from $8,845

Greenville to see 40-50% declines in average property taxes

Paulus Hook is screwed with 75% increase!

$16,591 to $29,026 in average property tax bill

WOW

Posted on: 12/14 15:36
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Looks like non-condo owners are seeing the biggest tax benefits. Commercial properties look like the net losers.

The value of vacant land is much less than I thought it would be...

Posted on: 12/14 15:30
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Posted on: 12/14 15:28
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dr_nick_riviera wrote:
Can someone explain the distinction between the Downtown section and the "12 UNITS OR LESS(Resi NBHDs)" on this document here?

http://jerseycity.hosted.civiclive.co ... ndo%20NBHD%20Analysis.pdf

Average increase for Downtown condos looks to be 30% but the "12 UNITS OR LESS(Resi NBHDs)" is about 10%. Does this mean that smaller, walkup condo buildings in Downtown can expect an increase of less than 30%?


FINALLY!!

1.62% ?!? Much higher than I thought, even though property taxes are going down. Makes to sense.

Posted on: 12/14 15:26
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jc201jc wrote:
http://www.cityofjerseycity.com/RevaluationUpdate

if you click "1-4 family neighborhood analysis" on the bottom of the page, it opens a PDF with average tax increases by neighborhood. Downtown JC taxes are looking to go up by 50% (unless I'm misinterpreting the table). But...tell me again how the housing prices won't be affected by this?


Going by the document, it looks like the increases in DTJC are anywhere from mid 50% to 75%, with the sole exception of the Van Leer neighborhood (WTF is that?) which is expected to go up by only 41%.

Interesting... I expected DT to get even higher increases. But, overall, the picture is bleak for the administration in terms of optics. Just as had been argued and pointed out multiple times prior to the reval, the current tax situation was a reverse Robin Hood scenario, and the numbers are damning. EVERY neighborhood outside of DTJC is going to see reductions, some quite substantial, with five rare exceptions, expected to have minor increases, three of which are under 5%.

And, it seems like they are expecting the tax rate to come out at about 1.62%. While that is welcome news for the DTJC homeowners, it is likely bad overall for the city, as pressure is likely to increase to force JC to take on a larger share of the local school budget if the property tax rate is so low compared to other NJ towns. At 2%, the city could argue that anything higher was a huge burden on residents, but at 1.6%, I believe that would be one of the absolute lowest property tax rates in the state (outside of Cape May county) and makes us a target for increased pressure.


The Heights and JSQ averages seem super low especially for the Heights which had the greatest increase this year in prices.

Also, how could anyone whos taxes arent increasing / substantially dropping (greenville & west side) complain that downtown isnt paying enough ? Seems like everyone wants a free ride these days

Posted on: 12/14 15:24
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Can someone explain the distinction between the Downtown section and the "12 UNITS OR LESS(Resi NBHDs)" on this document here?

http://jerseycity.hosted.civiclive.co ... ndo%20NBHD%20Analysis.pdf

Average increase for Downtown condos looks to be 30% but the "12 UNITS OR LESS(Resi NBHDs)" is about 10%. Does this mean that smaller, walkup condo buildings in Downtown can expect an increase of less than 30%?

Posted on: 12/14 14:24
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brewster wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
Anyway, really interested to see what others have to say/opine about the property tax rate potentially coming out at 1.62% and what the implications may be for our city and residents.


So many moving targets it's hard to guess where it'll end up. Is the rate vs home value a zero sum game where your increase stays the same? My DT taxes are $17k, I won't be surprised if they double, but I've done well over 20 years on value and rents. I'm sure I'd be less zen if I bought recently.


Just to clarify, that 1.62% number was taken from the document (linked earlier) provided by the city as an update on the ongoing reval now that it is 85% completed. Based on that, I am guessing the final rate will be somewhat close.

Posted on: 12/14 14:12
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bodhipooh wrote:
Anyway, really interested to see what others have to say/opine about the property tax rate potentially coming out at 1.62% and what the implications may be for our city and residents.


So many moving targets it's hard to guess where it'll end up. Is the rate vs home value a zero sum game where your increase stays the same? My DT taxes are $17k, I won't be surprised if they double, but I've done well over 20 years on value and rents. I'm sure I'd be less zen if I bought recently.

Posted on: 12/14 12:57
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bodhipooh wrote:
Going by the document, it looks like the increases in DTJC are anywhere from mid 50% to 75%, with the sole exception of the Van Leer neighborhood (WTF is that?) which is expected to go up by only 41%.


I believe Van Leer is the area by 18th & Coles, where a chocolate factory once stood.

As for AMo, you can't expect everyone to recall every detail of every thread, even if they read it. This is not a "true names" site, no one should be called out for anonymity, though civility would be nice (excepting extreme provocations like mealymouthed hypocrisy).


18th & Coles... that's the area now christened as SoHo West by real estate dolts, right?

As for AMo, and the matter of anonymity, I agree that using that as a argument to dismiss an opinion or post is silly. This BBS is definitely based on screen names (some of which can be easily "translated" to real life names with a quick Google search, such as mine) so I agree with your overall post/logic. I was just pointing out that Aaron has been forthcoming about his real name on several other threads, so I wouldn't necessarily say he is anonymous in here.

Anyway, really interested to see what others have to say/opine about the property tax rate potentially coming out at 1.62% and what the implications may be for our city and residents.

Posted on: 12/14 12:36
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bodhipooh wrote:
Going by the document, it looks like the increases in DTJC are anywhere from mid 50% to 75%, with the sole exception of the Van Leer neighborhood (WTF is that?) which is expected to go up by only 41%.


I believe Van Leer is the area by 18th & Coles, where a chocolate factory once stood.

As for AMo, you can't expect everyone to recall every detail of every thread, even if they read it. This is not a "true names" site, no one should be called out for anonymity, though civility would be nice (excepting extreme provocations like mealymouthed hypocrisy).

Posted on: 12/14 11:46
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jc201jc wrote:
http://www.cityofjerseycity.com/RevaluationUpdate

if you click "1-4 family neighborhood analysis" on the bottom of the page, it opens a PDF with average tax increases by neighborhood. Downtown JC taxes are looking to go up by 50% (unless I'm misinterpreting the table). But...tell me again how the housing prices won't be affected by this?


Going by the document, it looks like the increases in DTJC are anywhere from mid 50% to 75%, with the sole exception of the Van Leer neighborhood (WTF is that?) which is expected to go up by only 41%.

Interesting... I expected DT to get even higher increases. But, overall, the picture is bleak for the administration in terms of optics. Just as had been argued and pointed out multiple times prior to the reval, the current tax situation was a reverse Robin Hood scenario, and the numbers are damning. EVERY neighborhood outside of DTJC is going to see reductions, some quite substantial, with five rare exceptions, expected to have minor increases, three of which are under 5%.

And, it seems like they are expecting the tax rate to come out at about 1.62%. While that is welcome news for the DTJC homeowners, it is likely bad overall for the city, as pressure is likely to increase to force JC to take on a larger share of the local school budget if the property tax rate is so low compared to other NJ towns. At 2%, the city could argue that anything higher was a huge burden on residents, but at 1.6%, I believe that would be one of the absolute lowest property tax rates in the state (outside of Cape May county) and makes us a target for increased pressure.

Posted on: 12/14 11:37
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http://www.cityofjerseycity.com/RevaluationUpdate

if you click "1-4 family neighborhood analysis" on the bottom of the page, it opens a PDF with average tax increases by neighborhood. Downtown JC taxes are looking to go up by 50% (unless I'm misinterpreting the table). But...tell me again how the housing prices won't be affected by this?

Posted on: 12/14 10:55
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AMo wrote:
So what I don't do is respond to attacks from people too cowardly to identify themselves.


You seem pretty anonymous to me, AMo. Plenty of people know who I am, but I can't claim to not be anonymous here.


Huh? He has publicly identified himself in other threads, particularly the one about the pedestrian plaza, the one about the "food trucks wars" and the one about the chain businesses ordinance.

Posted on: 12/14 6:39
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AMo wrote:
So what I don't do is respond to attacks from people too cowardly to identify themselves.


You seem pretty anonymous to me, AMo. Plenty of people know who I am, but I can't claim to not be anonymous here.

Posted on: 12/13 20:45
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AMo wrote:
So what I don't do is respond to attacks from people too cowardly to identify themselves.


Spoken like a true minion and ally of Yvonne. Deflect, change the subject, run away from your actual words and actions and pretend you're taking some sort of moral high ground.

Posted on: 12/13 13:10
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So what I don't do is respond to attacks from people too cowardly to identify themselves.

Posted on: 12/12 20:34
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AMo wrote:
The cost of the Mayor's purely political delay (the court called his claims "frivolous) is actually closer to five million dollars if you add the 1.2 million more charged by the second company. During the four years of this political stunt, a good part of the city (mostly the poorer parts) were over-taxed. That's what I call moving Jersey City forward. A true progressive.


And Comrade, you are true progressive. Except when throw foodtruck folk under bus, or endorsing candidate for Ward E with close ties to developers. In the end maybe all about what is best for selling pizza?

Posted on: 12/9 10:05
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The cost of the Mayor's purely political delay (the court called his claims "frivolous) is actually closer to five million dollars if you add the 1.2 million more charged by the second company. During the four years of this political stunt, a good part of the city (mostly the poorer parts) were over-taxed. That's what I call moving Jersey City forward. A true progressive.

Posted on: 12/8 12:35
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