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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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Another tool below - not sure whether it is the latest version of the senate bill. It looks like the SALT adjustment starts having a negative impact when >40K in property+state tax and it may be less impactful if AMT is eliminated. In any case, the "reform" seems more profitable for investors who buy-to-rent since it looks like there won't be cap on SALT deduction. Imho though, any investment in this area should take into consideration the likelihood of a downward adjustment in rents with more units turning on the market.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the- ... hat-do-you-owe-2017-10-26

Posted on: 12/5 20:41
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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dcj wrote:
one thing being overlooked is the personal exemption. i think the plans call for its elimination. If that is eliminated (it's $4,050 a person/dependent) and you have a family of four, that's a $16,200 write off that disappears. that sucks.


The standard deduction was increased to $24k in Senate and $24.4k in the House bill. I think the Senate bill has some additional child tax credits.


Posted on: 12/5 14:49
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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one thing being overlooked is the personal exemption. i think the plans call for its elimination. If that is eliminated (it's $4,050 a person/dependent) and you have a family of four, that's a $16,200 write off that disappears. that sucks.

Posted on: 12/5 13:58
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Dolomiti wrote:
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K-Lo2 wrote:
One other factor in the tax discussion...the proposed elimination of the AMT for individuals. For people who can afford to buy in the market, the cap on SALT may not matter that much for those who were previously subject to the AMT. I may be somewhat of a wash.

Are they killing individual AMT, or just raising the cap?


House plan kills the AMT. The Senate plan keeps it in place.

Posted on: 12/5 12:43
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K-Lo2 wrote:
One other factor in the tax discussion...the proposed elimination of the AMT for individuals. For people who can afford to buy in the market, the cap on SALT may not matter that much for those who were previously subject to the AMT. I may be somewhat of a wash.

Are they killing individual AMT, or just raising the cap?

Posted on: 12/5 12:05
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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If you want an estimate of how your taxes will be affected by the House and Senate plan, break out last year's 1040 and plug in the data to this calculator:

http://taxplancalculator.com

It's simplified, so I would take what it calcs with a grain of salt. For example, it doesn't calculate the effect of a tax deferred / tax free savings plan (i.e. 401k, HSA).

Posted on: 12/5 11:36
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One other factor in the tax discussion...the proposed elimination of the AMT for individuals. For people who can afford to buy in the market, the cap on SALT may not matter that much for those who were previously subject to the AMT. I may be somewhat of a wash.

Posted on: 12/5 11:21
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Dolomiti wrote: I don't think it will make a serious dent in DTJC prices, especially in the longer term.


In the longer term, the risk is overall net migration out of the region. A very real possibility. NJ has already experienced this to a modest extent recently. As technology advances, there are fewer reasons for corporations (and jobs) to remain affixed to NYC. Sure, the idle rich will always be there, but there is a breaking point for those for the bottom end of the 1% down through 3% of top earners. I'm not saying this will definitely be the motivator for an exodus, but there is definitely an inflection point beyond which things start to change.

Posted on: 12/5 10:50
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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jc201jc wrote:
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dtjcview wrote:
The Senate bill left the $1m interest deduction in-place, and 10k in SALTs. If passed, RE prices won't tank on policy.

Think Dolomiti is right, JC property prices will continue to be driven by supply and demand.


Most things I've read indicate exactly the opposite:

"The bill, if enacted into law, could send home prices tumbling 10 percent or more in parts of the New York area, according to one economic analysis. "

How New Yorkers Would Lose Under the Republican Tax Bill https://nyti.ms/2nst8oG

I don't think that prices will drop 10%. But the uncertainty is enough to drive prices down in the short term IMO.

The law is definitely much more likely to pass now than when I wrote that. Even so, the bill is not finished, and may not be as big a hit as some people fear.

The current plan is to allow a $10,000 deduction in property taxes, and interest on mortgages up to $500,000. This could change at any moment, but let's assume it will be something along those lines, or worse.

On one hand, even with the property tax deduction, this is going to hurt -- particularly with the reval. Quite a few large properties will have bigger property tax deductions, and mortgages over $500k.

On the other, this is not happening in a vacuum. It's happening right next to Manhattan, and in an area with very little inventory. What this means is that more people will get priced out of Manhattan, and will be looking at JC.

It's going to suck for a lot of current JC residents (including me) who will get hit with higher taxes. It will likely force more than a few home sales. But overall, I don't think it will make a serious dent in DTJC prices, especially in the longer term.

Posted on: 12/5 10:39
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tern wrote:
The market in downtown Jersey City has come down, inventory is up and sitting around longer.

What are you basing this on?

Posted on: 12/5 10:08
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tern wrote:
The market in downtown Jersey City has come down, inventory is up and sitting around longer.

Robin.


Has it actually come down, or just cooled as aspirational prices finally drive off buyers? Glad to know there IS a limit!

Posted on: 12/4 22:59
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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dtjcview wrote:
The Senate bill left the $1m interest deduction in-place, and 10k in SALTs. If passed, RE prices won't tank on policy.

Think Dolomiti is right, JC property prices will continue to be driven by supply and demand.


Most things I've read indicate exactly the opposite:

"The bill, if enacted into law, could send home prices tumbling 10 percent or more in parts of the New York area, according to one economic analysis. "

How New Yorkers Would Lose Under the Republican Tax Bill https://nyti.ms/2nst8oG

I don't think that prices will drop 10%. But the uncertainty is enough to drive prices down in the short term IMO.

Posted on: 12/4 21:01
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The market in downtown Jersey City has come down, inventory is up and sitting around longer.

Robin.

Posted on: 12/3 22:05
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The Senate bill left the $1m interest deduction in-place, and 10k in SALTs. If passed, RE prices won't tank on policy.

Think Dolomiti is right, JC property prices will continue to be driven by supply and demand.

Posted on: 12/3 21:43
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brewster wrote:
Someone on a RE investors site put it this way "we're in year 10 of a 7 year cycle". A lot of people there are in "duck and cover" mode. Also, Hoboken was not nearly as out of whack as JC because the whole damn town had risen, so the tax hikes were moderate.

There is no "7 year cycle."

I see no indication that anyone is running scared right now. I haven't seen any indication that waves of homeowners are bailing before their property taxes go up, or that interest in JC has cratered for the same reason.

Hoboken hadn't done a reval in 25 years, and there's no question that properties faced increases in property taxes. What protected Hoboken's property values overall are the same factors that will protect JC's values overall: A lack of inventory, and stupendous RE prices in Manhattan ($1790/sq ft, vs JC's $472).

Oh, and don't forget, a lot of people's property taxes are going to drop. That should increase their property values, no...?



Posted on: 2017/11/28 20:58
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Dolomiti wrote:
I don't see any indication of a major economic slowdown any time soon. Of course, anything could happen, but it's not like we are scheduled to have a recession in early 2019.

The reval is not going to kill real estate prices. Just look at Hoboken, property values have consistently risen since 2012, despite a big reval.


Someone on a RE investors site put it this way "we're in year 10 of a 7 year cycle". A lot of people there are in "duck and cover" mode. Also, Hoboken was not nearly as out of whack as JC because the whole damn town had risen, so the tax hikes were moderate.

Posted on: 2017/11/28 20:22
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brewster wrote:
Hold onto your hats folks. At this rate, we're looking at a 3 way trifecta of property apocalypse in 2018. We'll get reval raised taxes, revocation of said tax's deductibility, and a recession price retreat simultaneously.

Good times a-comin!

Someone's an optimist ;)

I don't see any indication of a major economic slowdown any time soon. Of course, anything could happen, but it's not like we are scheduled to have a recession in early 2019.

The reval is not going to kill real estate prices. Just look at Hoboken, property values have consistently risen since 2012, despite a big reval.

The current tax reform plan is probably the only real issue here. However, the bill is very far from a done deal, as is completely killing off SALT. (E.g. the House wants to keep $10k of the SALT deduction.) Keep in mind that the pressure to pass tax reform is equaled by the pressure to repeal the ACA, and that also failed.

Despite that change, though, it doesn't alter the fundamental dynamic driving up real estate prices in much of JC: Demand vastly outstrips supply. So much of JC is rental that there is almost no inventory. For every 1 buyer discouraged by an increase in costs, there are 2 willing to take their place.

Posted on: 2017/11/28 19:26
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brewster wrote:
Hold onto your hats folks. At this rate, we're looking at a 3 way trifecta of property apocalypse in 2018. We'll get reval raised taxes, revocation of said tax's deductibility, and a recession price retreat simultaneously.

Good times a-comin!


What's the latest on PTE and the tax bills wrt rental income? If passive rental income is treated at 25% - there would a pickup in buy-to-rent sales. It also remains to be seen whether JC benefits from a bigger shift out of NYC.

Posted on: 2017/11/28 14:05
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Hold onto your hats folks. At this rate, we're looking at a 3 way trifecta of property apocalypse in 2018. We'll get reval raised taxes, revocation of said tax's deductibility, and a recession price retreat simultaneously.

Good times a-comin!

Posted on: 2017/11/28 11:32
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Here is the link for brewster from the updated 11/25 article on nj.com:

http://www.nj.com/jjournal-news/index ... y_reval_will_continu.html

Posted on: 2017/11/28 10:17
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Yvonne wrote:
If you look on their map, there are still many homes they did not inspect.

...yes, that's what it means when they say "we've inspected 75% of properties."

Posted on: 2017/11/27 17:04
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The reval people have not yet made it to two of my properties.

Posted on: 2017/11/27 15:54
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What a mess, but happy we may at least get some indication to expect from the initial bills.

Are they guessing on the ones they haven't inspected or will they leave the 1980s valuation in place when coming up with the tax bill.

Very interested indeed.

Posted on: 2017/11/27 15:52
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What I can't figure out is if they are that far behind (I'm now hearing June for completion):

1. how is there any opportunity to appeal/correct before the bill is due.
2. if June may be a real date, are people expected to pony up what could be double or more on a few weeks notice?

Posted on: 2017/11/27 15:11
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whonew wrote:


"City spokeswoman Jennifer Morrill said yesterday that the first round of new assessments may go out next month."

"When the state ordered the reval, it said the process must be completed by Nov. 1, 2017. Rijksen told The Jersey Journal that as long as the reval is implemented in the 2018 tax year, the city will be in compliance with the state's order."


Umm, link?

This IS fascinating. They can't assess without a complete city valuation. Either that map is not up to date, or they're just going to punt and guess on the rest and put the onus on us to sort it out in appeals. Given that much of DT has not been appraised, I wonder if the latter plan will trigger a class action suit. You can appeal your own tax but not (ordinarily) report your neighbor's is too low.

Posted on: 2017/11/27 15:00
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"City spokeswoman Jennifer Morrill said yesterday that the first round of new assessments may go out next month."

"When the state ordered the reval, it said the process must be completed by Nov. 1, 2017. Rijksen told The Jersey Journal that as long as the reval is implemented in the 2018 tax year, the city will be in compliance with the state's order."

Posted on: 2017/11/27 13:38
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If you look on their map, there are still many homes they did not inspect.

Posted on: 2017/11/22 13:02
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neverleft wrote:
.
Jersey City reval will continue 'well into' 2018
Updated 11:33 AM; Posted 11:14 AM

By Terrence T. McDonald tmcdonald@jjournal.com
The Jersey Journal

Jersey City's long-delayed property revaluation is expected to continue "well into" 2018, state officials said.

The company hired to conduct the reval, Appraisal Systems, has inspected about 75 percent of the city's properties so far, according to state Treasury spokesman Willem O. Rijksen.

State taxation officials ordered the city in April 2016 to conduct the reval, the city's first since 1988. The process is intended to square each property's true value with its assessment on the city tax rolls.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... 8.html#incart_river_index


Argh. I want to know the new ratable base.

Posted on: 2017/11/22 12:16
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Jersey City reval will continue 'well into' 2018

Jersey City's long-delayed property revaluation is expected to continue "well into" 2018, state officials said.

The company hired to conduct the reval, Appraisal Systems, has inspected about 75 percent of the city's properties so far, according to state Treasury spokesman Willem O. Rijksen.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... tinue_well_into_2018.html


Posted on: 2017/11/22 12:14
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.
Jersey City reval will continue 'well into' 2018
Updated 11:33 AM; Posted 11:14 AM

By Terrence T. McDonald tmcdonald@jjournal.com
The Jersey Journal

Jersey City's long-delayed property revaluation is expected to continue "well into" 2018, state officials said.

The company hired to conduct the reval, Appraisal Systems, has inspected about 75 percent of the city's properties so far, according to state Treasury spokesman Willem O. Rijksen.

State taxation officials ordered the city in April 2016 to conduct the reval, the city's first since 1988. The process is intended to square each property's true value with its assessment on the city tax rolls.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... 8.html#incart_river_index

Posted on: 2017/11/22 11:47
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