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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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Dolomiti wrote: I don't think it will make a serious dent in DTJC prices, especially in the longer term.


In the longer term, the risk is overall net migration out of the region. A very real possibility. NJ has already experienced this to a modest extent recently. As technology advances, there are fewer reasons for corporations (and jobs) to remain affixed to NYC. Sure, the idle rich will always be there, but there is a breaking point for those for the bottom end of the 1% down through 3% of top earners. I'm not saying this will definitely be the motivator for an exodus, but there is definitely an inflection point beyond which things start to change.

Posted on: 12/5 10:50
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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jc201jc wrote:
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dtjcview wrote:
The Senate bill left the $1m interest deduction in-place, and 10k in SALTs. If passed, RE prices won't tank on policy.

Think Dolomiti is right, JC property prices will continue to be driven by supply and demand.


Most things I've read indicate exactly the opposite:

"The bill, if enacted into law, could send home prices tumbling 10 percent or more in parts of the New York area, according to one economic analysis. "

How New Yorkers Would Lose Under the Republican Tax Bill https://nyti.ms/2nst8oG

I don't think that prices will drop 10%. But the uncertainty is enough to drive prices down in the short term IMO.

The law is definitely much more likely to pass now than when I wrote that. Even so, the bill is not finished, and may not be as big a hit as some people fear.

The current plan is to allow a $10,000 deduction in property taxes, and interest on mortgages up to $500,000. This could change at any moment, but let's assume it will be something along those lines, or worse.

On one hand, even with the property tax deduction, this is going to hurt -- particularly with the reval. Quite a few large properties will have bigger property tax deductions, and mortgages over $500k.

On the other, this is not happening in a vacuum. It's happening right next to Manhattan, and in an area with very little inventory. What this means is that more people will get priced out of Manhattan, and will be looking at JC.

It's going to suck for a lot of current JC residents (including me) who will get hit with higher taxes. It will likely force more than a few home sales. But overall, I don't think it will make a serious dent in DTJC prices, especially in the longer term.

Posted on: 12/5 10:39
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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tern wrote:
The market in downtown Jersey City has come down, inventory is up and sitting around longer.

What are you basing this on?

Posted on: 12/5 10:08
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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tern wrote:
The market in downtown Jersey City has come down, inventory is up and sitting around longer.

Robin.


Has it actually come down, or just cooled as aspirational prices finally drive off buyers? Glad to know there IS a limit!

Posted on: 12/4 22:59
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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dtjcview wrote:
The Senate bill left the $1m interest deduction in-place, and 10k in SALTs. If passed, RE prices won't tank on policy.

Think Dolomiti is right, JC property prices will continue to be driven by supply and demand.


Most things I've read indicate exactly the opposite:

"The bill, if enacted into law, could send home prices tumbling 10 percent or more in parts of the New York area, according to one economic analysis. "

How New Yorkers Would Lose Under the Republican Tax Bill https://nyti.ms/2nst8oG

I don't think that prices will drop 10%. But the uncertainty is enough to drive prices down in the short term IMO.

Posted on: 12/4 21:01
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The market in downtown Jersey City has come down, inventory is up and sitting around longer.

Robin.

Posted on: 12/3 22:05
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The Senate bill left the $1m interest deduction in-place, and 10k in SALTs. If passed, RE prices won't tank on policy.

Think Dolomiti is right, JC property prices will continue to be driven by supply and demand.

Posted on: 12/3 21:43
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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brewster wrote:
Someone on a RE investors site put it this way "we're in year 10 of a 7 year cycle". A lot of people there are in "duck and cover" mode. Also, Hoboken was not nearly as out of whack as JC because the whole damn town had risen, so the tax hikes were moderate.

There is no "7 year cycle."

I see no indication that anyone is running scared right now. I haven't seen any indication that waves of homeowners are bailing before their property taxes go up, or that interest in JC has cratered for the same reason.

Hoboken hadn't done a reval in 25 years, and there's no question that properties faced increases in property taxes. What protected Hoboken's property values overall are the same factors that will protect JC's values overall: A lack of inventory, and stupendous RE prices in Manhattan ($1790/sq ft, vs JC's $472).

Oh, and don't forget, a lot of people's property taxes are going to drop. That should increase their property values, no...?



Posted on: 2017/11/28 20:58
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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Dolomiti wrote:
I don't see any indication of a major economic slowdown any time soon. Of course, anything could happen, but it's not like we are scheduled to have a recession in early 2019.

The reval is not going to kill real estate prices. Just look at Hoboken, property values have consistently risen since 2012, despite a big reval.


Someone on a RE investors site put it this way "we're in year 10 of a 7 year cycle". A lot of people there are in "duck and cover" mode. Also, Hoboken was not nearly as out of whack as JC because the whole damn town had risen, so the tax hikes were moderate.

Posted on: 2017/11/28 20:22
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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brewster wrote:
Hold onto your hats folks. At this rate, we're looking at a 3 way trifecta of property apocalypse in 2018. We'll get reval raised taxes, revocation of said tax's deductibility, and a recession price retreat simultaneously.

Good times a-comin!

Someone's an optimist ;)

I don't see any indication of a major economic slowdown any time soon. Of course, anything could happen, but it's not like we are scheduled to have a recession in early 2019.

The reval is not going to kill real estate prices. Just look at Hoboken, property values have consistently risen since 2012, despite a big reval.

The current tax reform plan is probably the only real issue here. However, the bill is very far from a done deal, as is completely killing off SALT. (E.g. the House wants to keep $10k of the SALT deduction.) Keep in mind that the pressure to pass tax reform is equaled by the pressure to repeal the ACA, and that also failed.

Despite that change, though, it doesn't alter the fundamental dynamic driving up real estate prices in much of JC: Demand vastly outstrips supply. So much of JC is rental that there is almost no inventory. For every 1 buyer discouraged by an increase in costs, there are 2 willing to take their place.

Posted on: 2017/11/28 19:26
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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brewster wrote:
Hold onto your hats folks. At this rate, we're looking at a 3 way trifecta of property apocalypse in 2018. We'll get reval raised taxes, revocation of said tax's deductibility, and a recession price retreat simultaneously.

Good times a-comin!


What's the latest on PTE and the tax bills wrt rental income? If passive rental income is treated at 25% - there would a pickup in buy-to-rent sales. It also remains to be seen whether JC benefits from a bigger shift out of NYC.

Posted on: 2017/11/28 14:05
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Hold onto your hats folks. At this rate, we're looking at a 3 way trifecta of property apocalypse in 2018. We'll get reval raised taxes, revocation of said tax's deductibility, and a recession price retreat simultaneously.

Good times a-comin!

Posted on: 2017/11/28 11:32
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Here is the link for brewster from the updated 11/25 article on nj.com:

http://www.nj.com/jjournal-news/index ... y_reval_will_continu.html

Posted on: 2017/11/28 10:17
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Yvonne wrote:
If you look on their map, there are still many homes they did not inspect.

...yes, that's what it means when they say "we've inspected 75% of properties."

Posted on: 2017/11/27 17:04
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The reval people have not yet made it to two of my properties.

Posted on: 2017/11/27 15:54
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What a mess, but happy we may at least get some indication to expect from the initial bills.

Are they guessing on the ones they haven't inspected or will they leave the 1980s valuation in place when coming up with the tax bill.

Very interested indeed.

Posted on: 2017/11/27 15:52
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What I can't figure out is if they are that far behind (I'm now hearing June for completion):

1. how is there any opportunity to appeal/correct before the bill is due.
2. if June may be a real date, are people expected to pony up what could be double or more on a few weeks notice?

Posted on: 2017/11/27 15:11
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"City spokeswoman Jennifer Morrill said yesterday that the first round of new assessments may go out next month."

"When the state ordered the reval, it said the process must be completed by Nov. 1, 2017. Rijksen told The Jersey Journal that as long as the reval is implemented in the 2018 tax year, the city will be in compliance with the state's order."


Umm, link?

This IS fascinating. They can't assess without a complete city valuation. Either that map is not up to date, or they're just going to punt and guess on the rest and put the onus on us to sort it out in appeals. Given that much of DT has not been appraised, I wonder if the latter plan will trigger a class action suit. You can appeal your own tax but not (ordinarily) report your neighbor's is too low.

Posted on: 2017/11/27 15:00
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"City spokeswoman Jennifer Morrill said yesterday that the first round of new assessments may go out next month."

"When the state ordered the reval, it said the process must be completed by Nov. 1, 2017. Rijksen told The Jersey Journal that as long as the reval is implemented in the 2018 tax year, the city will be in compliance with the state's order."

Posted on: 2017/11/27 13:38
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If you look on their map, there are still many homes they did not inspect.

Posted on: 2017/11/22 13:02
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neverleft wrote:
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Jersey City reval will continue 'well into' 2018
Updated 11:33 AM; Posted 11:14 AM

By Terrence T. McDonald tmcdonald@jjournal.com
The Jersey Journal

Jersey City's long-delayed property revaluation is expected to continue "well into" 2018, state officials said.

The company hired to conduct the reval, Appraisal Systems, has inspected about 75 percent of the city's properties so far, according to state Treasury spokesman Willem O. Rijksen.

State taxation officials ordered the city in April 2016 to conduct the reval, the city's first since 1988. The process is intended to square each property's true value with its assessment on the city tax rolls.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... 8.html#incart_river_index


Argh. I want to know the new ratable base.

Posted on: 2017/11/22 12:16
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Jersey City reval will continue 'well into' 2018

Jersey City's long-delayed property revaluation is expected to continue "well into" 2018, state officials said.

The company hired to conduct the reval, Appraisal Systems, has inspected about 75 percent of the city's properties so far, according to state Treasury spokesman Willem O. Rijksen.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... tinue_well_into_2018.html


Posted on: 2017/11/22 12:14
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Jersey City reval will continue 'well into' 2018
Updated 11:33 AM; Posted 11:14 AM

By Terrence T. McDonald tmcdonald@jjournal.com
The Jersey Journal

Jersey City's long-delayed property revaluation is expected to continue "well into" 2018, state officials said.

The company hired to conduct the reval, Appraisal Systems, has inspected about 75 percent of the city's properties so far, according to state Treasury spokesman Willem O. Rijksen.

State taxation officials ordered the city in April 2016 to conduct the reval, the city's first since 1988. The process is intended to square each property's true value with its assessment on the city tax rolls.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... 8.html#incart_river_index

Posted on: 2017/11/22 11:47
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It has occurred to me (yes, maybe I should already know this) that, given that the new assessments are supposed to be mailed out in stages until March 15, and that the first two tax bills of 2018 are based on the old assessments and tax rate, the final two tax bills of 2018 will bill not only at the new tax rate and assessment, but will also include the retroactive billing for the the first two quarters. For those with a significant tax increase, the retroactive portion added to the new bill could make for a very difficult second half of 2018, especially for long-time fixed income residents. Those who are not following closely should be made aware in order to prepare, especially if the new assessment arrives only in mid-March.

Posted on: 2017/11/3 11:21
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JCGuys wrote:
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07310 wrote:
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brewster wrote:
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07310 wrote:
The appraiser came in to look at my condo he spent all of 2 minutes looking at the entire place. Can they really take an accurate assessment in that time?


Condition A,B or C?
Room and bathroom count?
Done.
NEXT!

You summed it up perfectly, I thought they were supposed to asses the hvac, condition of the bathrooms and kitchens and any renovations according to the letter I received. I guess those things matter less now.


More important for single-family home than condo. But honestly no need to inspect every home in the city.


I'm ok with the inspection as long as the assessment isn't wildly inflated. The tax dept has a history of doing this.

Posted on: 2017/10/27 16:35
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07310 wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
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07310 wrote:
The appraiser came in to look at my condo he spent all of 2 minutes looking at the entire place. Can they really take an accurate assessment in that time?


Condition A,B or C?
Room and bathroom count?
Done.
NEXT!

You summed it up perfectly, I thought they were supposed to asses the hvac, condition of the bathrooms and kitchens and any renovations according to the letter I received. I guess those things matter less now.


More important for single-family home than condo. But honestly no need to inspect every home in the city.

Posted on: 2017/10/27 15:40
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brewster wrote:
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07310 wrote:
The appraiser came in to look at my condo he spent all of 2 minutes looking at the entire place. Can they really take an accurate assessment in that time?


Condition A,B or C?
Room and bathroom count?
Done.
NEXT!

You summed it up perfectly, I thought they were supposed to asses the hvac, condition of the bathrooms and kitchens and any renovations according to the letter I received. I guess those things matter less now.

Posted on: 2017/10/27 13:24
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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07310 wrote:
The appraiser came in to look at my condo he spent all of 2 minutes looking at the entire place. Can they really take an accurate assessment in that time?


Condition A,B or C?
Room and bathroom count?
Done.
NEXT!

Posted on: 2017/10/27 12:31
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
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07310 wrote:
The appraiser came in to look at my condo he spent all of 2 minutes looking at the entire place. Can they really take an accurate assessment in that time?


I still have not even received an appointment card or any communication at all from the appraisers...isn't this supposed to be wrapping up by the end of next week?

Posted on: 2017/10/27 11:30
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The appraiser came in to look at my condo he spent all of 2 minutes looking at the entire place. Can they really take an accurate assessment in that time?

Posted on: 2017/10/27 11:05
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