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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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Why must people constantly whine and nitpick? Big deal now you have some extra supplies and probably got to work from home. Boo hoo. And as drifterx pointed out the over prediction probably saved lives.

Posted on: 3/17 9:11
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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Except of course 7 people have died due to the storm so yeah, it is a big deal. I can imagine it being worse if people rather underestimated this storm so I'm all for over-preparing.

As for 'business' disruptions, maybe if storefront owners actually clean up after the snow then it wouldn't be such a big deal. Come on people, dig yourself and your business out of potential fines and the ire of your neighbors.

Posted on: 3/17 8:54
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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I agree - the storm was made out to be such a big deal that it was too disruptive to many business and people.

I think the media should bear much of the blame too - they just love a dramatic headline!!!

Quote:

Mao wrote:
Well maybe you don't follow the weather. If you did, you would know that it is a science and there are protocols for making a forecast. NOAA computer guidance ensemble on late Sunday and early Monday showed the storm tracking 50 miles west. Now the narrative on the web site asserted that NOAA did not for some reason believe this. Yet, they posted for the first time, Blizzard warnings for northwest NJ and southern NY. This forecast was based on the new trajectory of the storm which would have the rain snow line right through NY city so that there would be no blizzard in NYC or Hudson County. ANd in fact, there was no blizzard. We got, instead, like eight inches of sleet. Tough stuff to shovel and tough stuff to take in the face. But it is an entirely different storm. Principally, it lacked 1. white out feature of blizzard which is very dangerous; 2. the drifting feature of a blizzard which is also dangerous. 3. the accumulation mark of a blizzard which is definitional. The civil authorities clearly overreacted- NOAA should have changed its forcast at noon on Monday. The blizzard warning should have been downgraded to a winter storm warning. NYC kids could have gone to school and the subways could have run, and it could have been legal to drive on the roads. Most things would have still been closed but it would not have been so hysterical. We're not DC for Pete's sake! So that is sort of fake news. Or at least NOAA not doing its job. I was actually kind of glad to hear it. I looked out at 3:00 am and saw that the snow was not sticking to the roads and wondered why when I opened NOAA it still said blizzard warning.

Posted on: 3/15 21:56
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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Well maybe you don't follow the weather. If you did, you would know that it is a science and there are protocols for making a forecast. NOAA computer guidance ensemble on late Sunday and early Monday showed the storm tracking 50 miles west. Now the narrative on the web site asserted that NOAA did not for some reason believe this. Yet, they posted for the first time, Blizzard warnings for northwest NJ and southern NY. This forecast was based on the new trajectory of the storm which would have the rain snow line right through NY city so that there would be no blizzard in NYC or Hudson County. ANd in fact, there was no blizzard. We got, instead, like eight inches of sleet. Tough stuff to shovel and tough stuff to take in the face. But it is an entirely different storm. Principally, it lacked 1. white out feature of blizzard which is very dangerous; 2. the drifting feature of a blizzard which is also dangerous. 3. the accumulation mark of a blizzard which is definitional. The civil authorities clearly overreacted- NOAA should have changed its forcast at noon on Monday. The blizzard warning should have been downgraded to a winter storm warning. NYC kids could have gone to school and the subways could have run, and it could have been legal to drive on the roads. Most things would have still been closed but it would not have been so hysterical. We're not DC for Pete's sake! So that is sort of fake news. Or at least NOAA not doing its job. I was actually kind of glad to hear it. I looked out at 3:00 am and saw that the snow was not sticking to the roads and wondered why when I opened NOAA it still said blizzard warning.

Posted on: 3/15 17:54
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Re: NOAA Knew NYC Was Not Getting a Blizzard by Noon on Monday! Fake News?
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Quote:

Mao wrote:

WEATHER SERVICE DECIDED LAST MINUTE NOT TO CUT SNOW FORECAST
BY SETH BORENSTEIN
AP SCIENCE WRITER

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Before the first snow fell, U.S. meteorologists realized there was a good chance the late-winter storm wasn't going to produce giant snow totals in big Northeast cities as predicted.

But they didn't change their forecasts because they said they didn't want to confuse the public.

Seems pretty straightforward.

And you're complaining about this... why exactly? Did you not actually read the article you copied?

P.S. learn to edit those kinds of posts, kthx

Posted on: 3/15 13:14
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Re: NOAA Knew NYC Was Not Getting a Blizzard by Noon on Monday! Fake News?
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Quote:

CatDog wrote:
That's not what "fake news" means Jesus Christ. The term "fake news" has been so thorough abused it's amazing. The explanation for not updating is in the very same article you're posting, why would you even accuse this of being fake news? There was a snowstorm yesterday, wasn't there? Or are you telling me the snow I shoveled was fake?


Agreed. And, while the forecast was off in terms of total accumulated snow, it was still accurate for actual precipitation.

From the article:
"The right amount of precipitation fell, but it came down as rain and sleet because the rain-snow line moved inland, according to Carbin and private forecasters."



Posted on: 3/15 13:10
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Re: NOAA Knew NYC Was Not Getting a Blizzard by Noon on Monday! Fake News?
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That's not what "fake news" means Jesus Christ. The term "fake news" has been so thorough abused it's amazing. The explanation for not updating is in the very same article you're posting, why would you even accuse this of being fake news? There was a snowstorm yesterday, wasn't there? Or are you telling me the snow I shoveled was fake?

Posted on: 3/15 11:24
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NOAA Knew NYC Was Not Getting a Blizzard by Noon on Monday! Fake News?
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WEATHER SERVICE DECIDED LAST MINUTE NOT TO CUT SNOW FORECAST
BY SETH BORENSTEIN
AP SCIENCE WRITER

AP Photo
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WINTER WEATHER INTERACTIVE

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Before the first snow fell, U.S. meteorologists realized there was a good chance the late-winter storm wasn't going to produce giant snow totals in big Northeast cities as predicted.

But they didn't change their forecasts because they said they didn't want to confuse the public.

National Weather Service meteorologists in Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington held a conference call Monday afternoon about computer models that dramatically cut predicted snow amounts. They decided to keep the super snowy warnings.

"Out of extreme caution we decided to stick with higher amounts," Greg Carbin, chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in suburban Maryland, told The Associated Press. "I actually think in the overall scheme that the actions (by states and cities) taken in advance of the event were exceptional."

On Monday, the weather service predicted 18 to 24 inches of snow in New York City. By late Tuesday afternoon, Central Park was covered with a little more than 7 inches of snow with rain and sleet still falling. Other areas, including upstate New York and Connecticut, received more than a foot and a half of snow. Swaths of Pennsylvania were walloped by 20 to 30 inches of snow.

Carbin said a last-minute change downgrading snowfall totals might have given people the wrong message that the storm was no longer a threat. It still was, but real danger was from ice and sleet in places like New York City and Washington, he said.

Dramatically changing forecasts in what meteorologists call "the windshield wiper effect" only hurts the public, said Bob Henson, a meteorologist for the private Weather Underground.

Carbin stood by the decision.

"The nature of the beast is that there's always uncertainty in every forecast and we have to get better at describing that," Carbin said.

The right amount of precipitation fell, but it came down as rain and sleet because the rain-snow line moved inland, according to Carbin and private forecasters.

The rain-snow line is a 50 mile wide north-south swath where cold Arctic air from the north and west clashes with warm, moist air from the Atlantic. West of the snow line saw heavy snow while east had rain and sleet.

The snow line happens to center on New York City so it was a bigger deal than if the line had been over a rural area, said private meteorologist Ryan Maue of WeatherBell Analytics .

Private forecast outfits said the National Weather Service did a good job forecasting a tough storm despite the beating the federal agency took on social media.

"Overall the range of the forecast was very solid. It ended up being on the low end," Henson said. "I understand why people can be frustrated when the expectation is the big storm."

University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd, host of the television show "Weather Geeks," said the public focused too much on worst-case scenarios.

"The perception of 'bust' is that it didn't materialize for New York in the manner expected. Much of the expected snow fell as sleet," Shepherd said in an email. "To me, ice is a far greater hazard. If a pitcher throws a strike down the center of the plate or just off the outside corner, it's still a strike. "

---

Follow Seth Borenstein at http://twitter.com/borenbears and his work can be found at http://bigstory.ap.org/content/seth-borenstein

© 2017 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.

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Posted on: 3/15 9:27
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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Snowstorm milder than expected in Hudson County, but still presents its challenges

By Michaelangelo Conte | The Jersey Journal
Follow on Twitter
on March 14, 2017 at 4:09 PM, updated March 14, 2017 at 4:10 PM

JERSEY CITY -- The blizzard of 2017 was predicted to roar in like a lion and dump up to two feet of snow on Hudson County.

While the snow totals haven't approached that level, a mix of wind-blown snow, sleet and frozen rain has left about eight inches of precipitation on local streets today.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... lder_than_expected_s.html


Posted on: 3/14 18:35
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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Quote:

Wishful_Thinking wrote:
Resized Image


if link doesn't work Google: i gotta get the bread and milk video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6zaVYWLTkU



.

Posted on: 3/14 12:22
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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Posted on: 3/14 12:09
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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They were thunder claps. They confirmed on the news

Posted on: 3/14 10:42
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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I hope that is only thunder claps I am hearing.... wouldn't call storm a bust, but it is a major PIA.

Posted on: 3/14 9:55
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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For NYC and JC, this storm is a huge bust. PATH is running. You still have time to get to work before your boss gets mad.

Posted on: 3/14 9:25
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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I'm in the heights and its coming down here and its sticking. Was able to drive to and back from the MC . But the snow is picking up.

Posted on: 3/14 8:43
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Re: parking during snow at LSP
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I am with you Wishful, this is a recent phenomena over past 5-6 years.

Yes, news media have always hyped storms, but this idea of preemptively and often unnecessarily closing things down has taken off only recently.

Why shutdown things before you know it is necessary? Why not wait and see what conditions actually turn out like?

Robin.

Posted on: 3/14 8:23
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Re: parking during snow at LSP
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Home today, as NJ Transit has suspended bus service so no way to get to the PATH train. It's not snowing now in the Heights, and we've gotten maybe 2 to 3 inches of accumulation.

Another entirely over-hyped weather event?

Posted on: 3/14 7:10
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Re: parking during snow at LSP
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Quote:

jc_dweller wrote:
Does anyone know what the situation is with parking at the LSP park & ride during snow. Will any cars left there be effectively plowed in by their lot maintenance, or is it a good option?


From previous experience, this is what will happen: they will plow that lot fairly well, and will leave gigantic mountains of snow towards the south end of the lot. A few years back, the mountains lasted for close to a month, maybe even longer, as it got tightly packed and refused to melt away. The only problem with that solution is that the lot will lose some spots, making parking a bit tighter.

Posted on: 3/13 21:47
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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I called the DPW Depending on the conditions there will be garbage pick-up tonight for those areas that are scheduled, but the trucks are leaving earlier than usual.

Posted on: 3/13 20:40
Get on your bikes and ride !
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Re: Nor'Easter - March 14, 2017
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I was at the Shop Rite in Union today-going in there were no carts or baskets available, and the checkout was brutal.

Posted on: 3/13 20:01
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Re: Jersey City Prepares For Blizzard Conditions Winter Storm Stella Heads Towards Region
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Stella? Is that what the Weather Channel is calling this one? #lame

I bet Shop Rite is a mess tonight!

Posted on: 3/13 19:08
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Jersey City Prepares For Blizzard Conditions Winter Storm Stella Heads Towards Region
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Mayor Steven M. Fulop and the Office of Emergency Management, in coordination with the Department of Public Works, are preparing with an aggressive snow removal plan for blizzard conditions as Winter Storm Stella tracks toward our region, with the potential for up to 20 inches of snow. DPW will be deploying approximately 64 crews throughout the duration of the storm.

http://riverviewobserver.net/2017/03/ ... lla-heads-towards-region/

Posted on: 3/13 17:27
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parking during snow at LSP
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Does anyone know what the situation is with parking at the LSP park & ride during snow. Will any cars left there be effectively plowed in by their lot maintenance, or is it a good option?

Posted on: 3/13 10:43
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4 inches an hour!?
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Meanwhile...the threat for Blizzard conditions with 1 to 2 ft
of snow is high for the NYC metro...NE NJ...Lower Hudson Valley
and SW CT. Blizzard Warning has been issued for this area.
Coupled jet structure...approaching phased mid level shortwave
energy...and deep and strong frontogenetic forcing...interacting
with inflow of gulf/sub-tropical moisture points towards
intense snowfall rates late tonight and pivoting north through
early Tuesday afternoon. Fairly good operational model agreement
on 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 inches qpf...with locally up to 2 inches qpf.
Most of this falling in a 9 hr period! Snowfall rates of 2 to 4
inches per hour look likely in this area based on SPC SREF
strongly signaling potential for snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches
per hour and the 3km experimental NAM showing still showing
potential for snowfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour
. Intense
comma head banding may linger over the western portions of the
cwa into the afternoon.

Strong Winds: Based on westward shift and stronger low
pressure...have expanded blizzard warning one zone grouping N &
W. Models showing potential for 35-45kt winds at 950 HPA into
much of NE NJ...Lower Hud...and S CT Tue morning/afternoon. This
should translate into several hours of 35 to 40 mph gusts with
heavy snow in these areas. These strong winds with heavy snow
will likely make travel nearly impossible Tuesday morning in
these areas with several roads becoming impassable. Winds fields
strengthen up to 50-60 kt at 950 HPA for eastern LI and far SE
CT at the same time...where potential exists for high wind gusts
of 50-60 mph. Duration of blizzard conditions across southern
and eastern coastal areas is tricky depending on changeover
time...but even here a few hours of whiteout conditions and
dangerous travel likely for the Tue morning commute.

Heavy snow and strongest winds should begin to wind down from sw to
ne late Tue/Tue evening as low pressure pulls east of New England.
Snow showers and gusty NW winds could lingers through Wednesday as
the phased upper low moves through.

Posted on: 3/13 10:41
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Re: Potential Nor'Easter next week with snow
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Overnight and early morning model updates. The GFS and Euro now pretty much agree for snow totals for JC. The GFS show more mixed rain/sleet/snow with lower storm totals in the interior areas.

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Posted on: 3/13 7:00
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Re: Potential Nor'Easter next week with snow
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When it comes to storm tracks, the Euro has a better record.

Posted on: 3/13 6:31
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Re: Potential Nor'Easter next week with snow
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So which model do you find more reliable?


Quote:

MDM wrote:
Updated GFS is now showing a slush fest.... rain sleet snow, with snow accumulations of 10 inches or so. The updated Euro shows a good 20 inches or so, but backed off on the snowpocolypse of 3 ft+ with added snow from a weekend storm.

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Posted on: 3/12 23:35
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Re: Potential Nor'Easter next week with snow
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Updated GFS is now showing a slush fest.... rain sleet snow, with snow accumulations of 10 inches or so. The updated Euro shows a good 20 inches or so, but backed off on the snowpocolypse of 3 ft+ with added snow from a weekend storm.

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Posted on: 3/12 22:50
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Re: Potential Nor'Easter next week with snow
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Euro model predicted storm(s) track (broken out in two gifs).


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Posted on: 3/12 12:10
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Re: Potential Nor'Easter next week with snow
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Just listened to the latest weather podcast via Weatherbell:

There are basically two paths being modeled. The GFS now has the storm going out to sea, which means cold and moderate sow amount.

The Euro has the storm moving Northeast, pulling lots of cold air in, with a second system moving in from the Ohio valley. Basically we get snow like the 2010 blizzard. Then a third system moves up the coast the following weekend dumping more snow.

Weatherman Joe Bastardi is indicating this storm maybe more towards the Euro model.


[size=large]GFS Snow over the next 10 days:[/size]

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Euro Snow Over the next 10 days:


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Posted on: 3/12 11:09
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