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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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If the FED is serious about raising rates (so they have some wiggle room to cut when the inevitable downturn occurs) then that may put a bit of a damper on the RE bonanza. I'm not sure at what point rates get people's attention, but with rates going up theoretically asset prices should come down in lockstep. We shall see.


Posted on: 3/3 9:22
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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MDM:

I have sold one of my lower cash flow properties downtown
and purchased 2 multi families in Greenville. Going great
so far.

Posted on: 3/3 9:15
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hi. house prices in bergen lafayette and west bergen and greenville have been rising yugely too. where are the bargains in jersey city?

Posted on: 3/3 8:13
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brewster wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
I believe the proper assessment for this is "more money than brains"... That house has 80s bad decor written all over it: wallpaper, the kitchen cabinets, the bathroom and the carpeted stairs. It will take a good amount of money to upgrade all of those things.


What makes you think they won't tear it down and put up 2 Bayonne Boxes? That's where the money is apparently. They recently did this to a similar property 415-17 Ogden, that sold, according to the tax card, for $975k.


Of course, you are right. But, what a SHAME. The house shell looks nice and the features of double parking and backyard are definite pluses. Seeing that house torn down to become two Bayonne Boxes would be sad. As you often deplore, the zoning should be changed to make it harder to kill the neighborhood look and style by building those monstrosities.

Posted on: 3/2 12:45
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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JCGuys wrote:
Yup. Can't wait for the reval to happen so we can see who had the best prediction. I'm thinking 1.75% of fair market value. Greenville will be in the best shape. There will be winners and losers in the heights. The biggest losers will be the land speculators that are sitting on $50 million properties that are only assessed for $100,000 back in 1987.


You could be right about the rate. But those speculators are only losers regarding taxes, I think they've done pretty well otherwise, no? Same as our apocryphal fixed income seniors with the $1m house. (Soon to be $2m the way things are going...)

Posted on: 3/2 12:45
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landshark wrote:
One street over:
https://www.zillow.com/homes/82-prospect-st,-jersey-city,-nj-07307_rb/

Was the Heights supposed to be in the 1/3 that taxes stayed the same?


Yup. Can't wait for the reval to happen so we can see who had the best prediction. I'm thinking 1.75% of fair market value. Greenville will be in the best shape. There will be winners and losers in the heights. The biggest losers will be the land speculators that are sitting on $50 million properties that are only assessed for $100,000 back in 1987.

Posted on: 3/2 12:41
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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One street over:
https://www.zillow.com/homes/82-prospect-st,-jersey-city,-nj-07307_rb/

Was the Heights supposed to be in the 1/3 that taxes stayed the same?

Posted on: 3/2 12:28
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MDM wrote:
I am actually thinking of just selling my investment properties off this year. I was originally planning on holding on to them for another 15+ years.. but hell, maybe I should sell since the bubble is back (sale prices greatly exceeding rent equivalent value)?

I stopped buying properties in 2003. Right now I can't fully renovate, rent, and have a positive cash flow income. Well.. maybe I can make money if I buy it with an FHA loan (pretend to live in it) with a sub 4% interest rate.. assuming prices keep going up so I can flip it.


Technically you're right to sell, but buying houses is a PITA, and presumably you've gotten these in shape so they're not a hassle to operate. I'm sticking to simple minded buy and hold. The other plan is sit tight and wait for buying on the drop, assuming you have the cash or equity accessible for the downpayment. You should have done that in 2011-12 when prices hit bottom.

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bodhipooh wrote:
I believe the proper assessment for this is "more money than brains"... That house has 80s bad decor written all over it: wallpaper, the kitchen cabinets, the bathroom and the carpeted stairs. It will take a good amount of money to upgrade all of those things.


What makes you think they won't tear it down and put up 2 Bayonne Boxes? That's where the money is apparently. They recently did this to a similar property 415-17 Ogden, that sold, according to the tax card, for $975k.

Posted on: 3/2 12:14
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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hero69 wrote:
did someone say those "overpriced" homes were just sitting in the heights and other parts of jersey city outside of dt. this 1 family sold for $825,000 in the heights in 18 days.

https://jerseydigs.com/54-reservoir-av ... ily-sales-in-the-heights/


I believe the proper assessment for this is "more money than brains"... That house has 80s bad decor written all over it: wallpaper, the kitchen cabinets, the bathroom and the carpeted stairs. It will take a good amount of money to upgrade all of those things.

Posted on: 3/2 11:30
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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hero69 wrote:
did someone say those "overpriced" homes were just sitting in the heights and other parts of jersey city outside of dt. this 1 family sold for $825,000 in the heights in 18 days.

https://jerseydigs.com/54-reservoir-av ... ily-sales-in-the-heights/


That is just an insane amount of money for that house. I am actually thinking of just selling my investment properties off this year. I was originally planning on holding on to them for another 15+ years.. but hell, maybe I should sell since the bubble is back (sale prices greatly exceeding rent equivalent value)?

I stopped buying properties in 2003. Right now I can't fully renovate, rent, and have a positive cash flow income. Well.. maybe I can make money if I buy it with an FHA loan (pretend to live in it) with a sub 4% interest rate.. assuming prices keep going up so I can flip it.

Posted on: 3/2 10:57
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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did someone say those "overpriced" homes were just sitting in the heights and other parts of jersey city outside of dt. this 1 family sold for $825,000 in the heights in 18 days.

https://jerseydigs.com/54-reservoir-av ... ily-sales-in-the-heights/

Posted on: 3/2 10:02
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Monroe wrote:
There's no moral, legal, or ethical right to have your real estate taxes attached to your ability to pay from current income. If you've enjoyed a gigantic rise in property value, while at the same time underpaying your fair share of real estate taxes because the city refused to do a reval in almost three decades-you've lucked out. If your taxes now double and you can't afford this from income, you do have a choice. Borrow against the equity in your house, or cash out and move.


There. We, who agree on almost nothing else, agree on this. As far as I can tell pure greed is the only reason why these people think fixed income seniors borrowing from their vast pile of equity is so unthinkable. They want what they want, with no responsibility whatsoever, and try and pretend equity wealth is nonexistent. Note Ralph's seeming congenital inability to understand.

One can have low equity and low taxes, or high equity and high taxes, you can't have high equity and low taxes (anymore), however much you huff and puff and say people who tell you otherwise are meanies.

Posted on: 2/22 11:59
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There's no moral, legal, or ethical right to have your real estate taxes attached to your ability to pay from current income. If you've enjoyed a gigantic rise in property value, while at the same time underpaying your fair share of real estate taxes because the city refused to do a reval in almost three decades-you've lucked out. If your taxes now double and you can't afford this from income, you do have a choice. Borrow against the equity in your house, or cash out and move.

Posted on: 2/22 10:41
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Just to be perfectly clear (again)...Message #896 and #904 were written by you, Brewster, in response to my posts. The details are below.

You wrote them. They are your words. Much like your most recent ludicrous suggestion of taking out a reverse mortgage to pay ones property taxes.

Now, instead of lamenting us with your potty mouth diatribes, why not support your opinion with something substantive, like a formal study or inform us of your credentials that make you an authority on the subject.

Then, and only then, will you reconcile your beliefs of how things should be versus how things really are (positive and normative assertions) and how things can/may change MORE feasibly, like a staged reval.

There are some really knowledgeable posters here, like Dan Levin, T-Bird, etc., that unfortunately gets drowned out with a lot of !@#$ explicative-laden noise.

Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

Ralph_Abutts wrote:
[quote]
When Brewster writes that no-one downtown will be affected by the 2xs - 4xs increase of property taxes, overnight, it is not only ludicrous, but loses all credibility with making such an asinine and unsubstantiated comment, repeatedly.


Quote me where I said any such thing. You're just making shit up. Fake News.


#896
When people own $1m homes, there's simply no reason taxes can't be paid.
Posted on: 2016/5/25 12:15

-------------------------------------------

Here's another......

#904
The foreclosure talk is scaremongering plain and simple. The only people who "might" be forced to sell are very recent purchasers of older properties who extended themselves to the max and have little equity to work with. But even if they've only been there 5 years they've seen enough appreciation to be able extract some for taxes, since vlaues have been rising at a rate many times the projected ~2% tax. Buyer of recently condoed or constructed property have little to worry about.
Posted on: 2016/5/25 16:22

Posted on: 2/22 10:13
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Yvonne wrote:
It could be they did not buy a million dollar home, they brought a $65,000 home that became a million without them doing anything.


AND. SO. WHAT? But I'm feeling generous so I'll explain AGAIN.

They put down no more than $17k and made $983,000!! YAY!!! More money than they ever dreamed of, and as you say, they didn't do anything for it!

Now they're being asked to pay 2%, $20k, to stay in their house. Lets say it ultimately costs $5k a year for the reverse mortgage, which is an absurdly high guess. Now they've got to pay $25k, 2.5%, per year out of their equity. Is there anyone who doesn't believe that a DT property will increase by more than that 2.5% on average over the next decade or 2? Remember how fast it recovered even after the 2008 drop? So our modest millionaires can continue to live in their house, and benefit from any gains over 2.5 for as long as they like.

But wait, what's that? A black Swan!! Property drops 30%! It makes no difference to them. After all, all they wanted was to stay in their house and they've still got plenty of equity to pay taxes. Oh, you say what they really wanted was to stay in their house, pay low taxes, and leave the equity untouched to their kids? Tough shit. That party is ending.

Presuming they aren't morons, take a lump sum reverse mortgage and blow it in Vegas on slots, coke and hookers there's no need to feel sorry for them, they're winners!!


So you are advocating that people take out a reverse mortgage to pay their taxes. It's a good thing you are not a financial planner

Posted on: 2/22 0:16
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Yvonne wrote:
It could be they did not buy a million dollar home, they brought a $65,000 home that became a million without them doing anything.


AND. SO. WHAT? But I'm feeling generous so I'll explain AGAIN.

They put down no more than $17k and made $983,000!! YAY!!! More money than they ever dreamed of, and as you say, they didn't do anything for it!

Now they're being asked to pay 2%, $20k, to stay in their house. Lets say it ultimately costs $5k a year for the reverse mortgage, which is an absurdly high guess. Now they've got to pay $25k, 2.5%, per year out of their equity. Is there anyone who doesn't believe that a DT property will increase by more than that 2.5% on average over the next decade or 2? Remember how fast it recovered even after the 2008 drop? So our modest millionaires can continue to live in their house, and benefit from any gains over 2.5 for as long as they like.

But wait, what's that? A black Swan!! Property drops 30%! It makes no difference to them. After all, all they wanted was to stay in their house and they've still got plenty of equity to pay taxes. Oh, you say what they really wanted was to stay in their house, pay low taxes, and leave the equity untouched to their kids? Tough shit. That party is ending.

Presuming they aren't morons, take a lump sum reverse mortgage and blow it in Vegas on slots, coke and hookers there's no need to feel sorry for them, they're winners!!

Posted on: 2/22 0:03
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GrovePath wrote:
Real Estate investors / speculators who claim to be concerned about fairness toward poorer people seem very disingenuous.


You've said that before, and it was as stupid and petty then. Resenting and wanting to delay the end of a longstanding injustice that you've benefited by is pretty low, IMO. I will get hurt far more by my DT property than I will gain by my Heights properties, especially as both of those are currently at or near proper assessment.

Posted on: 2/21 22:35
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Real Estate investors / speculators who claim to be concerned about fairness toward poorer people seem very disingenuous.

Posted on: 2/21 20:21
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brewster wrote:
Quote me where I said any such thing. You're just making shit up. Fake News.


Here's one.....

#896
When people own $1m homes, there's simply no reason taxes can't be paid.
Posted on: 2016/5/25 12:15

-------------------------------------------

Here's another......

#904
The foreclosure talk is scaremongering plain and simple. The only people who "might" be forced to sell are very recent purchasers of older properties who extended themselves to the max and have little equity to work with. But even if they've only been there 5 years they've seen enough appreciation to be able extract some for taxes, since vlaues have been rising at a rate many times the projected ~2% tax. Buyer of recently condoed or constructed property have little to worry about.
Posted on: 2016/5/25 16:22

Both were your direct response to what I had written in this very long thread.


Yup, as I said, you're just making shit up. I did say "Buyer of recently condoed or constructed property have little to worry about." This is true, since their assessments are recent and very close to accurate. What I did NOT in any way say was "no-one downtown will be affected by the 2xs - 4xs increase of property taxes". What I did say was fixed income people over 62 sitting on millions in equity have reverse mortgages available to extract that equity to pay their fair taxes and stay in their homes. They can choose not to and sell, but they can't boohoo and say they had no choice. Crying about paying another 1% tax on a property that is going up >10% per year after going up 1000%, after underpaying for years, seems disingenuous to me. But you and Yvonne seem to have no problem with disingenuous.

Posted on: 2/21 19:45
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It could be they did not buy a million dollar home, they brought a $65,000 home that became a million without them doing anything.

Posted on: 2/21 17:00
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Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote me where I said any such thing. You're just making shit up. Fake News.


Here's one.....

#896
When people own $1m homes, there's simply no reason taxes can't be paid.
Posted on: 2016/5/25 12:15

-------------------------------------------

Here's another......

#904
The foreclosure talk is scaremongering plain and simple. The only people who "might" be forced to sell are very recent purchasers of older properties who extended themselves to the max and have little equity to work with. But even if they've only been there 5 years they've seen enough appreciation to be able extract some for taxes, since vlaues have been rising at a rate many times the projected ~2% tax. Buyer of recently condoed or constructed property have little to worry about.
Posted on: 2016/5/25 16:22

------------------------------------

Both were your direct response to what I had written in this very long thread.

“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.” ? Charles Bukowski

Posted on: 2/21 16:50
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I don't think a 'phased in' process is of benefit to those overpaying, while downtowners are underpaying.

Posted on: 2/21 16:06
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Ralph_Abutts wrote:
[quote]
When Brewster writes that no-one downtown will be affected by the 2xs - 4xs increase of property taxes, overnight, it is not only ludicrous, but loses all credibility with making such an asinine and unsubstantiated comment, repeatedly.


Quote me where I said any such thing. You're just making shit up. Fake News.

Posted on: 2/21 12:45
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bodhipooh wrote:
I wonder Ralph_Abutts is the same person


You need not wonder. Brewster's argument is what is fair; mine is what is equitable. There is a difference. If you need evidence of such, look at my provactive and terse followup comments.

Debating fair tax policy, of any sort of taxes, I have no interest. It is interesting, but such debate could fill a book. Reval is of interest.

When Brewster writes that no-one downtown will be affected by the 2xs - 4xs increase of property taxes, overnight, it is not only ludicrous, but loses all credibility with making such an asinine and unsubstantiated comment, repeatedly.

All I am proposing, like others here, is that a one time exception for doing a stage reval occurs. I went into great detail as to why it will be beneficial for all property taxpayers.

Posted on: 2/21 11:07
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I asked this question some time ago. The answer someone provided as I recall is exactly as you suggested, that it would take some time to reach accurate pricing because of seller denial. I would assume though, that there must be some retrospective analysis of tax impact on values across the country that could be used for a formula to limit the increase to say 85% of the absolute number. Homeowners getting a 15% discount would feel less compelled to appeal which might take less of the city resources. I know some people will object to this based on on the difficulty of reaching a fair formula that is appropriately reflecting each city situation. It seems to me though, that if limited in scope, this proposal could gain more traction than an 5 year installment plan which has little prospect of winning imho.

Posted on: 2/18 14:54
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135jc wrote:
residents will be flooding the tax office with appeals.


That raises an interesting question in my mind. So the way this is expected to play out is higher taxes cause a price drop creating grounds for appeal based on post reval comps. Never mind the fact this will take years to happen as sellers are very reluctant to drop prices and it will only really take hold when "must sell" transactions establish a new comp level.

What if they accounted for the the expected price drop in the assessments thus heading off the appeals? It's not hard to figure out what a tax hike would do to the monthly nut of the typical mortgaged buyer. It seems stupid on the face of it leaving money on the table by underassessing, but it would take some of the volatility out of the market.

Posted on: 2/17 23:23
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Monroe wrote:
Well, that ship has sailed, there won't be a phase in, and soon everyone will be paying their 'fair share'. It'll seesaw back for a few years then stabilize.


More like residents will be flooding the tax office with appeals. A better approach would be anticipating this and not using just recent sale prices as the sole basis

But that has been discussed before. The point of reviving this thread was to see if anyone had any info on the he current status of the process.

Posted on: 2/17 17:51
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Monroe wrote:
Well, that ship has sailed, there won't be a phase in, and soon everyone will be paying their 'fair share'. It'll seesaw back for a few years then stabilize.

But to keep it fair we will need an ironclad law calling for rolling reval and a regular one every decade. This can't be allowed to be a political can to kick down the road continually ever again. This whole thing is an artifact of gutless leadership and a local press content to be mostly stenographers.

Posted on: 2/17 17:19
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Posted on: 2/17 17:18
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Well, that ship has sailed, there won't be a phase in, and soon everyone will be paying their 'fair share'. It'll seesaw back for a few years then stabilize.

Posted on: 2/17 17:04
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