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Re: 4 injured in 3 separate Jersey City weekend shootings
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No.

Or to be more precise, it's not particularly meaningful.

For example, if you look at the report, you'll see that there was a relatively high number of shootings in January 2014, but overall 2014 had fewer shootings than 2013 or 2015.

Criminals do not have weekly or monthly quotas for shootings. It is more random in nature, so you can easily have a big clump in one month, and then two months with far less crime. Since we notice negative events far more than the lack of negative events, and since our perceptions of crime are way out of whack with the reality, we ought to resist the attempt to discover patterns when there just isn't enough data.

It's also not clear if there were fewer assaults with other weapons during the same period of time. And again, the number of homicides hasn't changed.

The reality is that we don't have enough data to claim that there is any sort of real trend.
Yes I get that numbers fluctuate from month to month but you seem to completely ignore that I stated our total at this moment has surpassed the combined totals of January to March of previous years. To give you an even better idea of how high this is so early in the year, January to April has had an exact total of 23 shooting victims during those four months between the years of 2013 to 2015. We are currently at 20 victims with a week still left in this month.

Also I don't know why you bring up assaults with other weapons and homicides (again) after I made it clear I am talking only about shootings and shooting victims.




Quote:
I don't know if you are aware but shootings have went up two years in a row....

When was that, exactly?

2013 = 107 shootings
2014 = 86
2015 = 101
[/quote]

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This chart only shows non-fatal shooting incidents which led to one or more victims and doesn't calculate shootings with out a victim (which were up), complete number of victims of a non-fatal shooting (which were up) and fatal shootings (which were up). So 2016 had 80 non-fatal shootings and 19 fatal shootings the total number of victims is unknown until they update it. When I was keeping track I can tell you we surpassed the total number victims in 2013 (the highest total available) in the summer of 2016.


Quote:

In case you missed it, the past few winters were terrible -- cold temperatures and lots of snow.

And this year? One snowstorm that was cleared up quickly, and warm temperatures hitting 60 this past week. Given that winter weather tends to have a mild suppressive effect on crime, it's not a huge surprise that the numbers were up slightly.

More importantly is that again, this is nowhere near enough data to reliably detect any kind of trend, or draw any valid conclusions.


I agree weather can play a role, and with a week left and the next few days hitting above 60 it raises the likely hood of more shootings. You are kind of making my point for me.

Posted on: 2/21 17:49
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Re: 4 injured in 3 separate Jersey City weekend shootings
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JerseyCityNj wrote:
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Dolomiti wrote:
Let's wait at least 6 months before declaring some kind of trend, hmm?

Yes I am sure about that.

Jan 2013: Non-fatal Shootings 6 Fatal Shootings 1 = Victims 7
Feb 2013: Non-fatal Shootings 2 Fatal Shootings 1 = Victims 3

Jan 2014: Non-fatal Shootings 8 Fatal Shootings 1 = Victims 10
Feb 2014: Non-fatal Shootings 1 Fatal Shootings 0 = Victims 1

Jan 2015: Non-fatal Shootings 3 Fatal Shootings 0 = Victims 5
Feb 2015: Non-fatal Shootings 1 Fatal Shootings 0 = Victims 1

Now 2016 hasn't been updated to the statistics yet but 9 more victims then the available years to compare it to seems like more than usual or more than a slight increase no?

No.

Or to be more precise, it's not particularly meaningful.

For example, if you look at the report, you'll see that there was a relatively high number of shootings in January 2014, but overall 2014 had fewer shootings than 2013 or 2015.

Criminals do not have weekly or monthly quotas for shootings. It is more random in nature, so you can easily have a big clump in one month, and then two months with far less crime. Since we notice negative events far more than the lack of negative events, and since our perceptions of crime are way out of whack with the reality, we ought to resist the attempt to discover patterns when there just isn't enough data.

It's also not clear if there were fewer assaults with other weapons during the same period of time. And again, the number of homicides hasn't changed.

The reality is that we don't have enough data to claim that there is any sort of real trend.


Quote:
I don't know if you are aware but shootings have went up two years in a row....

When was that, exactly?

2013 = 107 shootings
2014 = 86
2015 = 101


Quote:
....I was just pointing out 20 victims being unusually high in less then two months during the coldest time of the year. If I included January to March this year has already passed the total for those three months in previous years.

In case you missed it, the past few winters were terrible -- cold temperatures and lots of snow.

And this year? One snowstorm that was cleared up quickly, and warm temperatures hitting 60 this past week. Given that winter weather tends to have a mild suppressive effect on crime, it's not a huge surprise that the numbers were up slightly.

More importantly is that again, this is nowhere near enough data to reliably detect any kind of trend, or draw any valid conclusions.

Posted on: 2/21 12:00
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Re: 4 injured in 3 separate Jersey City weekend shootings
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Dolomiti wrote:
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JerseyCityNj wrote:
Their is a map in the link. JC already has at least 26 shootings so far with 20 victims, 17 are non-fatal and 3 are fatal. This is alot for the coldest months of the year that usually see much less then warmer months. According to statistics available going back to 2013 the highest number recorded was 11 victims total for January and February. Keep in mind 2016 had more total victims then 2013 to 2015 but last year their were very few shootings at all in the winter.

You sure about that? From COMPSTAT:

Jan 2012: 1 homicide
Jan 2013: 1
Jan 2014: 1
Jan 2015: 1
Jan 2016: 1
Feb 2012: 2
Feb 2013: 1
Feb 2014: 0
Feb 2015: 0
Feb 2016: 3

3 homicides for Jan and Feb is not exactly an outlier. In fact, it's the same as last year.

I realize there is a tendency to find evidence of disastrous escalation of crime rates under every rock, but crime doesn't quite work that way. It's irregular and periodic, and not all that uncommon to have a clump of violent crimes, followed by months of relatively low activity, that no one bothers to notice.

Let's wait at least 6 months before declaring some kind of trend, hmm?

Yes I am sure about that.

Jan 2013: Non-fatal Shootings 6 Fatal Shootings 1 = Victims 7
Feb 2013: Non-fatal Shootings 2 Fatal Shootings 1 = Victims 3

Jan 2014: Non-fatal Shootings 8 Fatal Shootings 1 = Victims 10
Feb 2014: Non-fatal Shootings 1 Fatal Shootings 0 = Victims 1

Jan 2015: Non-fatal Shootings 3 Fatal Shootings 0 = Victims 5
Feb 2015: Non-fatal Shootings 1 Fatal Shootings 0 = Victims 1



Now 2016 hasn't been updated to the statistics yet but 9 more victims then the available years to compare it to seems like more than usual or more than a slight increase no?

I was pointing out actual shootings going up not homicides. Of the 4 homicides you brought up from 2016 only two of them were shooting victims. I don't know if you are aware but shootings have went up two years in a row and I was just pointing out 20 victims being unusually high in less then two months during the coldest time of the year. If I included January to March this year has already passed the total for those three months in previous years.



Posted on: 2/21 1:54
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Re: 4 injured in 3 separate Jersey City weekend shootings
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JerseyCityNj wrote:
Their is a map in the link. JC already has at least 26 shootings so far with 20 victims, 17 are non-fatal and 3 are fatal. This is alot for the coldest months of the year that usually see much less then warmer months. According to statistics available going back to 2013 the highest number recorded was 11 victims total for January and February. Keep in mind 2016 had more total victims then 2013 to 2015 but last year their were very few shootings at all in the winter.

You sure about that? From COMPSTAT:

Jan 2012: 1 homicide
Jan 2013: 1
Jan 2014: 1
Jan 2015: 1
Jan 2016: 1
Feb 2012: 2
Feb 2013: 1
Feb 2014: 0
Feb 2015: 0
Feb 2016: 3

3 homicides for Jan and Feb is not exactly an outlier. In fact, it's the same as last year.

I realize there is a tendency to find evidence of disastrous escalation of crime rates under every rock, but crime doesn't quite work that way. It's irregular and periodic, and not all that uncommon to have a clump of violent crimes, followed by months of relatively low activity, that no one bothers to notice.

Let's wait at least 6 months before declaring some kind of trend, hmm?

Posted on: 2/20 21:32
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Re: 4 injured in 3 separate Jersey City weekend shootings
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Not a big deal; more murals will come, and JC will be a sanctuary city too!

Posted on: 2/20 20:40
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Re: 4 injured in 3 separate Jersey City weekend shootings
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Their is a map in the link. JC already has at least 26 shootings so far with 20 victims, 17 are non-fatal and 3 are fatal. This is alot for the coldest months of the year that usually see much less then warmer months. According to statistics available going back to 2013 the highest number recorded was 11 victims total for January and February. Keep in mind 2016 had more total victims then 2013 to 2015 but last year their were very few shootings at all in the winter.

Posted on: 2/20 19:23
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4 injured in 3 separate Jersey City weekend shootings
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By Caitlin Mota | The Jersey Journal
on February 20, 2017 at 6:15 PM

JERSEY CITY -- Four people were injured in three separate shootings in Jersey City over the weekend, officials said.

The three shootings all occurred within 18 hours, city spokeswoman Jennifer Morrill said.

At about 11:50 p.m. on Saturday, a 31-year-old man was shot in the chest on Martin Luther King Drive near Woodlawn Avenue. He was brought to Jersey City Medical Center where he remains in critical condition, Morrill said.

Then at about 1 a.m. a 42-year-old man was shot in the hip and ankle near Rutgers Avenue and Wade Street. His injuries were not considered life threatening, she said.

Sunday evening, a man and woman were shot on Bergen Avenue near the Clendenny Avenue intersection.

The victims, a 23-year-old Bergen Avenue man and a 21-year-old Duncan Avenue woman, were treated for their injuries, which were not life threatening, Morrill said.

No one was arrested in any of the weekend shootings and the investigations are ongoing.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... incart_river_mobile_index

Posted on: 2/20 19:07
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