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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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heights wrote:
Maybe that's why most of these new property developments are not going condo but being rented out as apartment buildings. And I thought real estate was a sure fire bet.


Just like any other type of investment - timing, and your time horizon, is key. If someone brought in DTJC 20 years ago, I'm sure they'll tell you it was a great investment. And for those people under water today, 20 years from now, I'm pretty sure they'll say it was a good investment too (at that point).

Posted on: 2015/10/22 13:51
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I wonder if you have to further break down the statistics, by ward or neighborhood. For instance, in NYC there are lots of foreclosures in outlying, less gentrified areas like Flatbush but practically none in Manhattan. The average may not show the full picture

I know many of my fellow owners in our building in the Heights are either underwater or equity neutral, because the Heights is still stuck in the doldrums. I bet the picture for prime downtown neighborhoods is very different.
I have two personal friends downtown who are under water. Their condos are nit worth what they paid in 2006.

Maybe that's why most of these new property developments are not going condo but being rented out as apartment buildings. And I thought real estate was a sure fire bet.

Posted on: 2015/10/22 13:40
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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I wonder if you have to further break down the statistics, by ward or neighborhood. For instance, in NYC there are lots of foreclosures in outlying, less gentrified areas like Flatbush but practically none in Manhattan. The average may not show the full picture

I know many of my fellow owners in our building in the Heights are either underwater or equity neutral, because the Heights is still stuck in the doldrums. I bet the picture for prime downtown neighborhoods is very different.
I have two personal friends downtown who are under water. Their condos are nit worth what they paid in 2006.

Posted on: 2015/10/22 13:19
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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I wonder if you have to further break down the statistics, by ward or neighborhood. For instance, in NYC there are lots of foreclosures in outlying, less gentrified areas like Flatbush but practically none in Manhattan. The average may not show the full picture

I know many of my fellow owners in our building in the Heights are either underwater or equity neutral, because the Heights is still stuck in the doldrums. I bet the picture for prime downtown neighborhoods is very different.

Posted on: 2015/10/22 13:02
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Is it only me, or do others also feel that the Gannon is priced very high? I understand the high rises with amenities (door man, pool, etc) can ask for a premium, but I don't think the Gannon has a pool? Or doorman???

Just curious, and want to understand.

Posted on: 2015/10/22 12:54
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Posted on: 2015/10/22 12:45
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Exactly. The ads they released a few months ago stated "Starting in the $700's"

Posted on: 2015/10/22 1:20
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prices the same as the website if it is the oakman.

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jcwalkingman wrote:
It appears that one of the most active developers downtown thinks there may be a bubble. Prices were slashed by about 30% on units in one of the few new condo buildings downtown yesterday.


So - which building/developer is it???


All I can say here is check Trulia for listings posted within the past few days, then compare listings posted yesterday to websites of new condo buildings in downtown You'll see it...I didn't think they'd be doing this so soon but I guess they see where the market is heading.

Posted on: 2015/10/22 0:49
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jcwalkingman wrote:
It appears that one of the most active developers downtown thinks there may be a bubble. Prices were slashed by about 30% on units in one of the few new condo buildings downtown yesterday.


So - which building/developer is it???


All I can say here is check Trulia for listings posted within the past few days, then compare listings posted yesterday to websites of new condo buildings in downtown You'll see it...I didn't think they'd be doing this so soon but I guess they see where the market is heading.

Posted on: 2015/10/22 0:19
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It appears that one of the most active developers downtown thinks there may be a bubble. Prices were slashed by about 30% on units in one of the few new condo buildings downtown yesterday.


So - which building/developer is it???

Posted on: 2015/10/21 23:55
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jcwalkingman wrote:
It appears that one of the most active developers downtown thinks there may be a bubble. Prices were slashed by about 30% on units in one of the few new condo buildings downtown yesterday.


Always seemed a bit ridiculous to me that SO MUCH new construction has been going up years in advance. I figured the first couple developers who finish will easily sell out, the ones in the middle may take longer but will achieve decent occupancy, but the ones at the end will be stuck holding the bag.

Posted on: 2015/10/21 23:26
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It appears that one of the most active developers downtown thinks there may be a bubble. Prices were slashed by about 30% on units in one of the few new condo buildings downtown yesterday.

Posted on: 2015/10/21 22:47
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I think the "think long term" approach is definitely correct in regards to Real estate. however, for anyone with limited money in the bank, a 1-bedroom costing $350K (circa 2010) is very different than what it could cost today (around $500k+), and a brownstone in the same period (probably $500K+ difference in purchase price)?

As much as I'd like to buy a brownstone today, I don't have the down payment, nor the ability to pay monthly mortgage payments for a $1.5mil property. However, if it's "only" $1mil, then perhaps there's some hope for me...





You will be buying a very old house don't forget to budget more $$$ for the "incidentals" that need to be fixed or replaced such as roofs, electrical wiring, plumbing, floors, etc.

Posted on: 2015/10/21 20:00
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Depends on where you buy this "brownstone" there are brownstones all over Jersey City. You can still find a brownstone in the JSQ area for 325K and the further up you go the less expensive it is.


I think you need to back that up with listings. Brick single families in the Heights passed that mark a few years ago.

Posted on: 2015/10/21 19:55
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Depends on where you buy this "brownstone" there are brownstones all over Jersey City. You can still find a brownstone in the JSQ area for 325K and the further up you go the less expensive it is.

Posted on: 2015/10/21 18:55
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I think the "think long term" approach is definitely correct in regards to Real estate. however, for anyone with limited money in the bank, a 1-bedroom costing $350K (circa 2010) is very different than what it could cost today (around $500k+), and a brownstone in the same period (probably $500K+ difference in purchase price)?

As much as I'd like to buy a brownstone today, I don't have the down payment, nor the ability to pay monthly mortgage payments for a $1.5mil property. However, if it's "only" $1mil, then perhaps there's some hope for me...




Posted on: 2015/10/21 18:40
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Totally agree with Brewster's comment of "Think long term or don't play" and with 07310's comment below.

Investing is one thing, home ownership of your personal residence is another. I've done both over the past 30 years here in DTJC.

My neighbor bought the biggest coolest house on my block in the mid-70s for 25k. I bought a narrow brick 4-story 1-family on 8th St. in 1986 for 160k and moved in. Later that year I bought a 3-unit wide brick rowhouse on 4th St for 180k which I rented out. Then I moved the family to a larger house in 1999, which cost a (then-whopping) 375k.

Am I glad I did? Oh yeah. Were there any guarantees? Nope-

Only death and taxes are sure bets-

Posted on: 2015/10/21 14:59
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Frequently what happens is people sell after the market has already gone down a ton, in order to "cut their losses" and ensure they won't lose more. But when the market starts going up again, they don't trust it. They only begin to trust it once it's been up for a while, at which time they buy back in. Selling low and buying high, that's how you lose your retirement.


I'm certain I've told this story, maybe even in this thread, but in 1996 the 1st properties we ever saw in JC were owned by an investing group that wanted out after the market had tanked in 89 and not come back. He showed us a condoed 6U on 8th between Monmouth & Brunswick. $190k, for the whole thing. Now each unit is probably double that. Think long term or don't play.


I agree, unless you are a professional investor you will get burned if you try to time the market. If the market does tank lets hope it happens about a year before the reval.

Posted on: 2015/10/21 14:18
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Frequently what happens is people sell after the market has already gone down a ton, in order to "cut their losses" and ensure they won't lose more. But when the market starts going up again, they don't trust it. They only begin to trust it once it's been up for a while, at which time they buy back in. Selling low and buying high, that's how you lose your retirement.


I'm certain I've told this story, maybe even in this thread, but in 1996 the 1st properties we ever saw in JC were owned by an investing group that wanted out after the market had tanked in 89 and not come back. He showed us a condoed 6U on 8th between Monmouth & Brunswick. $190k, for the whole thing. Now each unit is probably double that. Think long term or don't play.

Posted on: 2015/10/21 3:17
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SRhia, the last time we had a major downturn, the stock market plummeted. Do you know if the people you are referring to also took their money out of the market?


The husband told me (1) not to go into bonds (coming from a bond guy); (2) not time for commodities yet either; (3) stock market is still the place to be for the long run. I think what he meant (if I understood him correctly) is that the stock market may/probably will tank (along with everything), but once that happens, between bonds and stocks, he'd still put his money in stocks as that would still outperform bonds in the loooooong road to recovery.

I'm shifting my portfolio to cash (not just based on what he told me, but from all the reading I've done), and is waiting for that opportunity that I'll be set for retirement. Fingers crossed!!!!!

PS I just hope I'll pull the trigger at the right time. Otherwise, the bet could go very wrong, and I'll lose my pants and say bye bye to retirement


Thanks for the info and good luck. Just know that you can't go wrong unless you sell when the market is low. If you move to cash, the worst that happens is you miss out on continued gains that everyone else in the market will get. But that's not the same as losing money.

Frequently what happens is people sell after the market has already gone down a ton, in order to "cut their losses" and ensure they won't lose more. But when the market starts going up again, they don't trust it. They only begin to trust it once it's been up for a while, at which time they buy back in. Selling low and buying high, that's how you lose your retirement.

Posted on: 2015/10/21 0:55
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I've been in the market to buy a condo and looking at units in the newer buildings downtown (Grove Pointe, Waldo Lofts, Gulls Cove, and Sutton) and pretty much every single one bedroom that's been for sale since at least August was being held as an investment unit prior to being listed. If the investors are all cashing out now, it doesn't seem like there's much confidence in prices appreciating too much further. I've put my search on hold & plan on riding this one out...

I won't go into the risks of buying now in this post because I've been posting about them for at least a year in this thread, but I will say that this is a really really bad time to buy downtown (just look at all the things propping the market up right now...)




I thought the same - I noticed that there's a larger than usual number of brownstones/whole buildings coming onto the market in the last 2 months or so, where in the previous 2 years, there were very few. My thoughts were same as yours - people are trying to cash out before the market tanks...

Posted on: 2015/10/21 0:45
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I've been in the market to buy a condo and looking at units in the newer buildings downtown (Grove Pointe, Waldo Lofts, Gulls Cove, and Sutton) and pretty much every single one bedroom that's been for sale since at least August was being held as an investment unit prior to being listed. If the investors are all cashing out now, it doesn't seem like there's much confidence in prices appreciating too much further. I've put my search on hold & plan on riding this one out...

I won't go into the risks of buying now in this post because I've been posting about them for at least a year in this thread, but I will say that this is a really really bad time to buy downtown (just look at all the things propping the market up right now...)

Just like hotelier Sam Chang talked up Flushing's hot market a month ago and then flipped property he had there, later revealing that he "suddenly" lost confidence in that neighborhood, alot of real estate agents are talking downtown up as a hot market right now without talking about the risks it faces.

Resized Image


(article about McSam's sudden loss of faith in Flushing here: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/10/2 ... g-flip-flops-on-flushing/)

Posted on: 2015/10/21 0:18

Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:35:27
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:36:34
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:37:23
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:37:58
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:39:02
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:40:57
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:41:47
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:43:49
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:47:27
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/10/21 0:48:06
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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SRhia, the last time we had a major downturn, the stock market plummeted. Do you know if the people you are referring to also took their money out of the market?


The husband told me (1) not to go into bonds (coming from a bond guy); (2) not time for commodities yet either; (3) stock market is still the place to be for the long run. I think what he meant (if I understood him correctly) is that the stock market may/probably will tank (along with everything), but once that happens, between bonds and stocks, he'd still put his money in stocks as that would still outperform bonds in the loooooong road to recovery.

I'm shifting my portfolio to cash (not just based on what he told me, but from all the reading I've done), and is waiting for that opportunity that I'll be set for retirement. Fingers crossed!!!!!

PS I just hope I'll pull the trigger at the right time. Otherwise, the bet could go very wrong, and I'll lose my pants and say bye bye to retirement

Posted on: 2015/10/21 0:05
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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@jcguy05 - how long do you think it'll take prices to come down? We've been dreaming to upgrade from an apartment to brownstone, and is now saving money. I know no one can predict the future, but I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on how long it will take to deflate this time around.

Just as an anecdote, I have a friend who lives in Brooklyn Heights. Her husband is in finance (a "bond" guy), and have told his wife (my friend) to sell their apartment there. He sees a major downturn (worse than 2008), and for much longer, and therefore does not want their assets tied to illiquid real estate. Her apartment was sold in 2 days, in cash, above asking price. She also said that a lot of her neighbors have sold as well in the area.



SRhia, the last time we had a major downturn, the stock market plummeted. Do you know if the people you are referring to also took their money out of the market?

Posted on: 2015/10/20 21:52
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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@jcguy05 - how long do you think it'll take prices to come down? We've been dreaming to upgrade from an apartment to brownstone, and is now saving money. I know no one can predict the future, but I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on how long it will take to deflate this time around.

Just as an anecdote, I have a friend who lives in Brooklyn Heights. Her husband is in finance (a "bond" guy), and have told his wife (my friend) to sell their apartment there. He sees a major downturn (worse than 2008), and for much longer, and therefore does not want their assets tied to illiquid real estate. Her apartment was sold in 2 days, in cash, above asking price. She also said that a lot of her neighbors have sold as well in the area.


Posted on: 2015/10/20 21:47
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jcguy05 wrote:
We are definitively in a price bubble now, you can mark this post. Small 1100sqf 2BRs in 77 hudson are above 1.5mil and getting sold. Rest 2BRs in highrises are closing in on 1mil.

With the fed rate set to go up starting next year (at the latest), the money supply will dry up, and those prices will not be sustainable.

My advise to existing home owners is to refinance your mortgage to leverage up and take out the max amount of cash allowed using today's property valuation and low rates. Cash will be king again in the next 2-5 years.

You can compare to nyc/brooklyn and point out dtjc is still cheaper, but at near 1mil for 2brs, 600k for 1br, and flat wages. It's just not sustainable growth, the bubble will deflate although slower than 08 as the buyers this time are higher quality not junk, but it will deflate nonetheless.

Get ready for a reality check in 2-3 years.


I'm not sure of the demographics here, but in NYC, it is not Americans who are paying these ludicrous prices. It is rich foreigners who are using the real estate as a place to park their money. Cash is indeed King and many of them are paying in all cash.

So in this context, is this a bubble? The easy money supply created by the Fed does not matter when foreigners are paying loads of cash. I'd think even if their home economies get worse, that will be even more reason for these foreign rich to place their money in the "safe haven" of American real estate.

Posted on: 2015/10/20 20:39
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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We are definitively in a price bubble now, you can mark this post. Small 1100sqf 2BRs in 77 hudson are above 1.5mil and getting sold. Rest 2BRs in highrises are closing in on 1mil.

With the fed rate set to go up starting next year (at the latest), the money supply will dry up, and those prices will not be sustainable.

My advise to existing home owners is to refinance your mortgage to leverage up and take out the max amount of cash allowed using today's property valuation and low rates. Cash will be king again in the next 2-5 years.

You can compare to nyc/brooklyn and point out dtjc is still cheaper, but at near 1mil for 2brs, 600k for 1br, and flat wages. It's just not sustainable growth, the bubble will deflate although slower than 08 as the buyers this time are higher quality not junk, but it will deflate nonetheless.

Get ready for a reality check in 2-3 years.

Posted on: 2015/10/20 20:34
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Dumbo the most expensive place to live on the planet LOL who knew.

Posted on: 2015/10/12 20:31
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Posted on: 2015/10/12 20:27
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Some observers were skeptical that new residential townhouses in Red Hook, Brooklyn, would sell for $2 million plus, yet they are.

http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/10/0 ... ners-red-hook-townhouses/

Another illustration that, IMO, Jersey City is far from being in a real estate bubble, and in fact may just be normalizing with the larger metro area.

Transit-starved, artists, "chill vibe" sounds a lot like - the Heights! If only more affluent potential homeowners would take a similarly less restricted approach as they do in Brooklyn, then this bubble might be seen as more of a trend for the better.

Posted on: 2015/10/2 18:28
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