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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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So, I have been watching the single family market in dwntn for the past couple of months. Here's what I saw. (I might have missed others.)

Only one sold, 614 Jersey Av, listed for $999, now pending.

Two were taken off the market, for whatever reason.
656 Jersey, about $1.6m
332 York, $1.7m

Two reduced prices.
243 Marin from $2m to $1.6
12 Mercer from $1.8 to $1.67

There are a few others that are still out in the market for the same price, but doesn't seem to be selling as quickly as 614 Jersey, which was listed for less than $1m.

Seems to me like there's a cooling off. Maybe there was pent up demand last year and early this year, but buildings are not being snapped up at the prices they are asking now. Maybe the condo market is a different story, but supply is definitely looking greater than demand in the single family market.

Posted on: 2015/7/30 17:55
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Another Dixon leasing rental at 268 Barrow, 5 Bed/ 5 BATH.

Yours for only $12,000 per month!!!

Posted on: 2015/7/30 16:34
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Quote:

SRhia wrote:
I also understand the law of demand and supply, and asking price vs purchase price. But the fact that someone *dared* to even list with such a price, what does that say of the people's mentality right now?

Not much.

Some of the units in 88 Morgan are asking around $780/sq ft, which seems to be above the DTJC average.

The penthouse is going for $1700/sq foot. That's not too surprising, as it has 22 ft high ceilings, garage parking, doorman, gym, pool, hot tub, a terrace etc.

It's also been on the market for about 3 months. It's entirely possible the developers are pricing it high, to make the $1 million units seem cheap.


Quote:
I noted in my original post that there are several 3 bed units in 65 2nd street is in the $1.2+ million range.... etc
and that's just a handful of examples. Look at the trulia listings: so many are now asking 30%, 40+% more than just 4-5 years ago.

Yes, that's because DTJC is hot, and there isn't much inventory. The shortage is especially acute for those looking for older low-rise buildings and townhouses.


Quote:
Hence, is JC market currently a bubble?

No.

It's just a hot market. Again, the fundamentals are strong, the banks are still using strict lending guidelines, the area is getting lots of good press, the area is getting gentrified and adding amenities.

I.e. it takes a little more than "prices look high" and even "units sell quickly" to declare that a market is in a bubble.

Posted on: 2015/7/30 14:47
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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mrasg1 wrote:
Can anyone recommend a realtor? Looking
to buy. And also, any thoughts on the
Bergen-Lafayette area? Thanks.


We recently used (for the 2nd time) Sawyer Smith and highly recommend him & his team:

http://sawyersmith.com/

Posted on: 2015/7/29 19:57
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Here's another fun example:

219 Brunswick - 1br

DATE EVENT PRICE $/SQFT
07/29/15 Listed for sale $345,000 +56.8%
02/11/15 Sold $220,000

Posted on: 2015/7/29 19:37
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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jcguy05 wrote:

I saw that listing too, the asking price is just wishful thinking. Noone is going to pay close to 1.2m for a low rise building with minimal amenity and no view.

I can ask 2mil for my 1br, doesnt mean it will be sold. Look at the monmouth tax record site with filter on sold = last 90 days, that's the real market. (there is 1-2 month delay between closing and it showing up on that website usually, but still give you the most accurate picture of price)


Wow

This home has a pending offer.
99 Montgomery St PH 3, Jersey City, NJ 07302

DATE EVENT PRICE AGENTS
07/26/15 Listing removed $1,175,000
07/19/15 Listed for sale $1,175,000+51.2%

Posted on: 2015/7/28 19:06
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Hey maybe if one of those Hudson tunnels fail, Jersey City real estate will get a boost from people relocating.

Posted on: 2015/7/28 16:30
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mrasg1 wrote:
...any thoughts on the Bergen-Lafayette area?


http://jclist.com/modules/newbb/viewt ... order=DESC&status=&mode=0

Posted on: 2015/7/28 16:25
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Can anyone recommend a realtor? Looking
to buy. And also, any thoughts on the
Bergen-Lafayette area? Thanks.

Posted on: 2015/7/28 15:36
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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JGJDNYCJC wrote:
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devilsadvocate wrote:
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vindication15 wrote:
Same thing gets said about manhattan year after year yet demand stays high and vacancy is low.

Re: DTJC real estate, which is extremely different than other parts of JC, it is not a bubble. If you compare luxury high rises, 1brs in DTJC are going for the same rental prices as studio apts in manhattan, 2brs in dtjc are around the 1br pricing for manhattan.

When such a bargain still exists, there is much catching up to do..


I don't understand why you think this is a "bargain." Jersey City is an inferior good to living in Manhattan, and you're absolutely kidding yourself if you think otherwise. If you could get a comparable place in Manhattan, then I would immediately sell my JC home and acquire a similar property in Manhattan on Central Park or Riverside (two parks that are better than anything JC has to offer).


You're missing the point.

First, there's DTJC, and there's the rest of JC. The two are very different and have evolved differently. It's a bit like UES and Spanish Harlem. Close but far apart.

Second, DTJC is appealing precisely because it's not Manhattan. You can have your space, a car, quiet, some decent retail, and some transit. I liken it to a mix of Brooklyn and Queens and heckuvalot cheaper than both, with better quality and newer real estate.

The folks attracted to DTJC are often seeking a more affordable, lower scale, but proximate alternative to Manhattan, who found Brooklyn too costly.


Just FYI - I hate it when people pretend like you can't have a car in Manhattan. I lived in Manhattan for years and always had a car. Parking was a bit more, but that's about it. Space - yes, that is ultimately what we're talking about here: crappier location in exchange for cheaper space. But when you talk about prices rising, you're undermining the very thing that makes Jersey City worthwhile to those comparing to Manhattan.

Posted on: 2015/7/27 18:14
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

JcDevil wrote:
Quote:

BobNesta wrote:

Right, and as Somerman mentioned it's not just the young desiring to live in urban areas.


Indeed - it's just an anecdote, but I've talked with a number of boomer-aged family friends about their plans to downsize to places like Weehawken or Edgewater in the next couple years. They don't quite want the full city experience of living in Manhattan, Hoboken, or DTJC, but they want proximity to the restaurants and arts that bring them into the city without the two hour drive.


Exactly. But, the point raised by ianmac47 is definitely true. There is no doubt an increased "reverse" exodus happening with people flocking to cities (the trend can be seen all over the country, not just in our area) but the point he was making is that a good part of the increase in real estate value is actually due to tech sector people being flush with cash and willing to pay inflated prices. If you were to factor out that money from the market (not really possible, since it would be speculation to arrive at a number, etc) I am sure you would still an increase in values (a natural result of increased demand) but the increase would not be as steep as it is now. You have kids coming out of college, or perhaps with a few years of experience since finishing school, that command 6 figure salaries. It's a great industry: fun and exciting, with great salaries, and ever expanding. If you were to conduct a survey of the young residents in any of the local luxury buildings, I am sure a good portion of them are in the IT industry.


Here's a factor that I've never read about; inheritance and gifts. I can honestly say that I don't know anyone who didn't get money from their family towards buying a home. Use to be that you signed a statement as part of a mortgage app. that no part of the downpayment was borrowed. Not any more, I've been told. Right now I can give $14,000 a year to a child or other relative with IRS blessing. Three or four years and that becomes an interesting sum. If I croak, some relatives will be rich. It happens often - grandparents, parents, aunts and uncles. How is this accumulated generational wealth accounted for in real estate pricing models? Anyone?

Posted on: 2015/7/27 17:06
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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JcDevil wrote:
Quote:

BobNesta wrote:

Right, and as Somerman mentioned it's not just the young desiring to live in urban areas.


Indeed - it's just an anecdote, but I've talked with a number of boomer-aged family friends about their plans to downsize to places like Weehawken or Edgewater in the next couple years. They don't quite want the full city experience of living in Manhattan, Hoboken, or DTJC, but they want proximity to the restaurants and arts that bring them into the city without the two hour drive.


Exactly. But, the point raised by ianmac47 is definitely true. There is no doubt an increased "reverse" exodus happening with people flocking to cities (the trend can be seen all over the country, not just in our area) but the point he was making is that a good part of the increase in real estate value is actually due to tech sector people being flush with cash and willing to pay inflated prices. If you were to factor out that money from the market (not really possible, since it would be speculation to arrive at a number, etc) I am sure you would still an increase in values (a natural result of increased demand) but the increase would not be as steep as it is now. You have kids coming out of college, or perhaps with a few years of experience since finishing school, that command 6 figure salaries. It's a great industry: fun and exciting, with great salaries, and ever expanding. If you were to conduct a survey of the young residents in any of the local luxury buildings, I am sure a good portion of them are in the IT industry.

Posted on: 2015/7/27 16:50
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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BobNesta wrote:

Right, and as Somerman mentioned it's not just the young desiring to live in urban areas.


Indeed - it's just an anecdote, but I've talked with a number of boomer-aged family friends about their plans to downsize to places like Weehawken or Edgewater in the next couple years. They don't quite want the full city experience of living in Manhattan, Hoboken, or DTJC, but they want proximity to the restaurants and arts that bring them into the city without the two hour drive.

Posted on: 2015/7/27 14:56
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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HelenaJC wrote:
Aren't real estate increases in places like Queens, Brooklyn, Jersey City partly reflective of people moving out of the suburbs and into urban areas? Jobs are now predominately in cities, and increasingly, this is where young professionals want to build their lives: http://www.thewire.com/national/2014/ ... e-suburban-exodus/359714/

As long as this trend continues (and the market isn't completely flooded with new housing stock), it's hard to imagine a serious real estate bubble in NYC and its environs.


Right, and as Somerman mentioned it's not just the young desiring to live in urban areas.

Posted on: 2015/7/25 21:31
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Aren't real estate increases in places like Queens, Brooklyn, Jersey City partly reflective of people moving out of the suburbs and into urban areas? Jobs are now predominately in cities, and increasingly, this is where young professionals want to build their lives: http://www.thewire.com/national/2014/ ... e-suburban-exodus/359714/

As long as this trend continues (and the market isn't completely flooded with new housing stock), it's hard to imagine a serious real estate bubble in NYC and its environs.

Posted on: 2015/7/25 18:23
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Time4JC wrote:
Nobel Prize winning Economist and Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller:

The Housing Market Still Isn’t Rational

The bottom line is that there is no reason to assume that the real estate market is even close to efficient. You may want to buy a house if you love it and can afford it. But remember that you cannot safely rely on “comparable sales” to judge that the price is fair. The market isn’t efficient enough for that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/26/ups ... .html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1


Interesting article. He makes an error in his example of SF RE though. He says appreciation expectations there don't take into account the supply response to high prices. But SF housing isn't cotton, there's no more land in SF and the codes make it extremely difficult to add density.

In general it seems supply increases in RE are so slow to take effect it lets these bubble gain the respectability of age. It's not as easy as planting your wheat field in cotton next year to take advantage of high demand.

I say again, look at the rent/purchase price ratio to see if there's a bubble. People don't speculate on their rent, like if they pay too much now it'll be a much better deal by the end of the lease.

Posted on: 2015/7/25 16:37
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Jersey City's real estate is yoked to Manhattan's. Manhattan's is being pulled upward by Brooklyn right now. That the trendy areas of Brooklyn are averaging higher price points than Manhattan should be a pretty good sign that something isn't right in the marketplace. There is definitely a bubble. Whether that is going to burst soon or whether its still continuing to grow is a lot like wondering whether the the Pacific Northwest is going to get wiped out by a massive earthquake tomorrow or in twenty years. Its going to happen, its just a matter of when.

The other question is whether or not its going to burst or whether the decline will be more gradual. Problematically, one of the bigger drivers of prices at this point seems to be the rise of the tech sector in New York. Those companies are paying well, and those tech people are willing to pour a lot of their money into rent. The tech sector is experiencing a great boom, a lot like it did in the late 90s. But then people started launching apps that didn't make business sense, except they called them websites, not apps. Things like pets.com and kozmo.com are pretty similar to new ones like Handy.com, Instacart, Task Rabbit. I suspect very soon the venture capital on some of these projects will dry up, and then pretty quickly the venture capital on all of them will evaporate, much like it did the last two times the tech sector collapsed. That I think will lead to a very fast collapse of real estate.

I would bet that we go through two more spring seasons of ground breakings before construction slows, but that as early as fall 2016 we start seeing an increase in available inventory and a decline in purchases. Brooklyn and LIC will probably be hit hardest, Manhattan more gradually, and places like Jersey City and Astoria will see the older properties and less desirable properties grow closer in price to the new properties (in the same way that used car prices rises in down markets because car buyers, looking to save money, shift from buying new to buying used)

Posted on: 2015/7/25 15:30
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Hoboken is an island in itself. Hoboken doesn't get the same crowd as Jersey City when it comes to the PATH. The influx JC gets, is from the burbs to people in Staten Island down to the city folks. The headache is huge. I know so many renters have left for NY, preferably, Queens and Brooklyn, if they dont want the prices in Manhattan.

Downtown Jersey City is another. I've lived in both areas, with JC living longer for years off and on, the other being NYC. I've takened the 1, E, N, R, D, F, M trains. At least in NYC when one or two is down there are other ways to get to where you need to get in the city. In Jersey is only 2. The PATH and NJ Transit trains. Good luck with the buses when the PATH has problems. If you actually had to commit to work be that in Jersey City financials or NYC I dont need to describe you the headaches. But of course if you're the owners you'll paint a perfect picture to get renters. But they'll realized sooner or later and will move out. Why you think so many For Rents lately. PATH better get their act together.

Posted on: 2015/7/25 15:13
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Dolomiti wrote:
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JCorNYC wrote:
no convenient grocery store like Shop Rite (must take car to schlep miles away for food shopping)

Thanks for the sour persimmons.

The supermarket situation in DTJC is no different than Hoboken before the Kings opened up. There was one market towards the north end of town -- and plenty of small shops with good produce and a surprisingly useful selection. Somehow, neither issues with the PATH, nor distance from the only supermarket in town, stunted Hoboken's gentrification.

In fact, the market situation got a bit better a few years ago, when Key Foods replaced C-Town >>shudder<<

Meanwhile, JC's gentrification has continued unabated for several years in a row, and shows little sign of slowing down. There is no indication that people who move to JC are fleeing immediately, either.


Most of the grocery stores in JC have on line shopping and delivery service to compete with Fresh Direct and other on line market delivery services.

If you think the PATH is bad at rush hour try getting on the 1, 2, or 3 train during rush hour, it feels like rush hour in Tokyo with people pushing to get on the trains.

Posted on: 2015/7/25 14:38
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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JCorNYC wrote:
no convenient grocery store like Shop Rite (must take car to schlep miles away for food shopping)

Thanks for the sour persimmons.

The supermarket situation in DTJC is no different than Hoboken before the Kings opened up. There was one market towards the north end of town -- and plenty of small shops with good produce and a surprisingly useful selection. Somehow, neither issues with the PATH, nor distance from the only supermarket in town, stunted Hoboken's gentrification.

In fact, the market situation got a bit better a few years ago, when Key Foods replaced C-Town >>shudder<<

Meanwhile, JC's gentrification has continued unabated for several years in a row, and shows little sign of slowing down. There is no indication that people who move to JC are fleeing immediately, either.

Posted on: 2015/7/25 14:26
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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moobycow wrote:
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JCorNYC wrote:
Once new residences realized the PATH is horrible with so many delays and suspensions, no convenient grocery store like Shop Rite (must take car to schlep miles away for food shopping) they will leave Jersey City. Just you watch.


I've lived here for about 7 years and haven't once had to schlep miles away for food. There are 4 large grocery stores downtown (not sure if any are closing with the A&P bankruptcy), Key Foods and multiple bodegas etc.

How is 4 large grocery stores not convenient? Should we have one every block? Add in Fresh Direct and Pea Pod and I can't imagine a scenario where getting groceries is an issue.

As for the PATH, no doubt it can be bad, but the alternative is oftne NJ Transit. I know which one I prefer.


Totally agree with you. As a retired senior citizen (I prefer Elder Hottie) I find the neighborhood very in sync with my current needs and think that some suburban empty nesters would too. Walkability, amenities, access to Manhattan, etc. can't be beat if you can live in a 'luxury' building with a car an elevator ride away. The idea of locking a door and taking a month long vacation is awfully appealing when there is no house to worry about. If older people start moving in, I think, the price of two or three bedroom condos will be significantly
impacted. Just you wait.

Posted on: 2015/7/25 13:34
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JCorNYC wrote:
Once new residences realized the PATH is horrible with so many delays and suspensions, no convenient grocery store like Shop Rite (must take car to schlep miles away for food shopping) they will leave Jersey City. Just you watch.


I've lived here for about 7 years and haven't once had to schlep miles away for food. There are 4 large grocery stores downtown (not sure if any are closing with the A&P bankruptcy), Key Foods and multiple bodegas etc.

How is 4 large grocery stores not convenient? Should we have one every block? Add in Fresh Direct and Pea Pod and I can't imagine a scenario where getting groceries is an issue.

As for the PATH, no doubt it can be bad, but the alternative is oftne NJ Transit. I know which one I prefer.

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Once new residences realized the PATH is horrible with so many delays and suspensions, no convenient grocery store like Shop Rite (must take car to schlep miles away for food shopping) they will leave Jersey City. Just you watch.

Posted on: 2015/7/25 2:08
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Nobel Prize winning Economist and Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller:

The Housing Market Still Isn’t Rational

The bottom line is that there is no reason to assume that the real estate market is even close to efficient. You may want to buy a house if you love it and can afford it. But remember that you cannot safely rely on “comparable sales” to judge that the price is fair. The market isn’t efficient enough for that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/26/ups ... .html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

Posted on: 2015/7/24 23:44
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JCorNYC wrote:
Jersey City housing especially downtown and near the waterfront is over inflated.

It's expensive (as is housing all over the metro NYC area). And yet, prices do seem to be sustainable, and are likely to go up. As pointed out already, DTJC is still much more affordable than NYC.

Meanwhile, DTJC continues to improve, we've got better amenities than ever (including the "beach" in Newport), restaurants opening and packing the house right off the bat, Liberty State Park is practically empty compared to Central Park


Quote:
The Path Trains giving problems almost every work week

Please.

PATH is far from perfect, and can't communicate their way out of a paper bag, but it's doing OK lately.

How about that MTA? Yep, they're doing fantastic!
http://gothamist.com/2015/07/24/summer_fridays.php
http://gothamist.com/2015/07/23/is_higgins_robin_masters.php
http://gothamist.com/2015/07/17/in_russia_change_spares_you.php

There is no sign whatsoever that people are giving up JC for NYC. But YOU are welcome to do so, if you don't like living here. ;)

Posted on: 2015/7/24 23:44
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Jersey City housing especially downtown and near the waterfront is over inflated. The Path Trains giving problems almost every work week are sending people out of the State and flocking to NYC! If you work in Jersey City you're ok but the majority work in NYC and the commute thanks to the Path Trains have driven many to move to Brooklyn, Queens etc..

Posted on: 2015/7/24 21:06
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Posted on: 2015/7/24 13:50
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bodhipooh wrote:

OK, I wasn't very clear on what I was trying to convey. My point was that two decades ago, Brooklyn was not on anyone's radar. Around mid 1990s, it was still derided as being "B&T"

As for the claim that low inventories were found in many areas, it's actually the opposite. Your statement is true for our area, which is "unique". Across the country, the issue is the complete opposite: there was TOO MUCH inventory. Most (all?) economists agree on this point: the glut of housing has dragged the recession and it is what kept all of this going for so long. Too much housing that the market couldn't absorb.


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/23/bus ... -exceeds-supply.html?_r=0

Posted on: 2015/7/24 12:54
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
You make valid points all around, but the fact remains that just over a decade ago, and certainly within two decades ago, NO ONE would have spent a million dollars for anything in BK.

I'm pretty sure lots of people did. Brooklyn Heights and Prospect Park were certainly on the upswing in 2005; I'm pretty sure that even DUMBO was well on the way to gentrification by then.

E.g. here's a random town house for sale in Park Slope. If you look at the history, it sold for $1m in 2002:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/45- ... n-NY-11217/30581953_zpid/

It also seems, as someone who admittedly is not part of the industry, that the banks and mortgage issuers are still maintaining very strict standards. They aren't going to loan to people who they don't think can make the mortgage paments, and I'm pretty sure they've improved their risk models since the last crash. IMO this is a critical bulwark against a bubble.

We should also note that after the crash, new home construction rates fell, and were well below normal rates for several years. This has contributed to low inventories in many areas.

By the way, I'm mildly amused that you slag the NYT's real estate section, and then assume that what they say is absolutely true. ;) I'm not quite convinced that people who are getting priced out of Brooklyn are moving to Manhattan. Though I have heard that people who are getting priced out of Jersey City are looking at Hoboken.... o_O



OK, I wasn't very clear on what I was trying to convey. My point was that two decades ago, Brooklyn was not on anyone's radar. Around mid 1990s, it was still derided as being "B&T" and properties could be had for very little. Things started to change fast, and within a decade it just started to blow up. I remember going to BK in mid and late 90s and meeting friends and acquaintances there who had gotten into brownstones (entire ones) for a song. You couldn't possibly do that now.

Believe it or not, the mortgage requirements and "standards" are already being loosened again. So, we went from "liar's loans" that required little to no documentation, and mortgages that only required 3% to banks going to the previous "safe" level of requiring 20% to again banks loosening standards and now "suggesting" 20%, but allowing as little as 10% for "well qualified buyers". Banks are in it to make money, they came out of the bubble burst and recession relatively unscathed (well, the small ones got swallowed up by the big ones, but the big ones did OK all things considered) so to them, the "temporary pain" of the recession/correction were just that: temporary. I truly believe that if I was to walk into a bank, and offered to put down 10% of a high value property, they would sign the paperwork and give me the loan. Do not assume that banks are looking to prevent another bubble. To them, it is all the same: they hold the slip on the property if there is a loan, so they lose VERY LITTLE, if any.

As for the claim that low inventories were found in many areas, it's actually the opposite. Your statement is true for our area, which is "unique". Across the country, the issue is the complete opposite: there was TOO MUCH inventory. Most (all?) economists agree on this point: the glut of housing has dragged the recession and it is what kept all of this going for so long. Too much housing that the market couldn't absorb.

As for my slogging the NYT RE section and then "believing" their claims, I just so happen to have several friends, and have anecdotally heard of many others, who have chosen to leave BK and moved to the Lower East Side, and the Upper East Side, because it was MORE AFFORDABLE than staying in BK. Small apartments in BK Heights are commanding 5K. You can get a great place in a nice building in the UES and even the UWS for that kind of money. I went to see places not too far from Central Park (within one block in the UWS) that were priced in that range. If I had to choose between BK and being one block away from CP, I would definitely choose Manhattan. Each person is different, of course. But, like I said, I do know several people that have left BK for Manhattan because of rents.

Posted on: 2015/7/23 12:57
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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I never know how much of this global warming/climate change stuff is true and how much is just fearmongering.

However, if NASA's former Climate Chief is correct, the real estate "bubble" will burst, big time.

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2015/0 ... ea-levels-climate-change/

Posted on: 2015/7/22 19:54
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