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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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As you know from my previous posts, I live at the Beacon. Here is the reality of values at the beacon: I could sell my place right now for 10% less than I paid for it. In the crazy real estate world we currently live in, that is good news because I bought at the height of the RE Bubble. This is also the first year since I bought my apartment that I could say that.

I have to agree with the poster who said that the Beacon Complex was designed against neighborhood revival. It's unfortunate, but given the pace of "revival" in Jersey City, and the additude of local businesses, it was a practical move.

We also have the problem that area stores don't carry the things that Beacon residents like to buy. We are in a 'Catch 22" situation. We will not patronize their stores until they improve them from dump to neighborhood asset, and they will not improve their stores until we shop in them.
er.


Posted on: 2013/8/2 18:27
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Montgomery St / McGinley Sq Redevelopment? Any chance of area improving?
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Was unable to make meeting on the latest McGinley Sq redevelopment effort (http://photos.nj.com/jersey-journal/2 ... housing_authority_11.html).
Any feedback from those who may have been at meeting? Any chance of this having any more success than the past McGinley Sq. redevelopment project which looks to be dead since St Peter's backed-out? From what I read, only 3 projects will get funding, so seems like a long shot just based on odds.

Curious if the area around Bergen / Monticello between Montgomery and Communipaw Avenues will have a chance of getting better. Seems like there has been a rash of shootings there over the past couple of weeks. Any feedback is appreciated.

Posted on: 2013/7/31 3:56
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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That McGinley Square is gentrifying seems incredibly obvious to me, even if the clearest, hit you over the head frills of revitalization are not yet here.

I've lived in this neighborhood for five years and the reason I moved here is the same as the reason half my neighbors moved here. We were looking for a place to buy that was reasonably safe, reasonably convenient in terms of transport to our mid-level NYC jobs, and in a price range that's actually affordable for your average yuppie who has finally tired of paying rent. More and more and more yuppies will come, until it is no longer affordable. They will not come for a Trader Joes, though that would be nice. They will not come for the big towers and cookie cutter condos at JSQ, which I personally hope never come, those kinds of neighborhoods always strike me as soulless and ultimately flimsy in terms of long term value. They will come for what is already here. Yuppie businesses serving this community will, toward the END of this process, finally be able to sustain themselves, and presto chango. At that point the area is obviously revitalized, visible even to those people with only passing familiarity with the neighborhood, replete with all the bells and whistles and frills of gentrification, for those who like that sort of thing.

Is it happening quickly? Lord no. It seems to be happening glacially. But more important than the speed of the change (unless you are an investor just looking to flip stuff) is that it is happening inexorably. Better government management might speed things up, but it's not really necessary in the long run because the fundamentals - convenient access to NYC, reasonable safety, affordability - are here.

How quickly will it happen? I think anyone who says they can tell you that has an over-inflated ego or is full of hot air - the most brilliant economic minds in the world have trouble predicting the world's economy and markets, or New York's, or Jersey City's - though plenty of them will do their best to make you think they can predict the future, just like a few of your JCListers. What is self-evident to the people reading this list who live in the McGinley area, however, is that young professionals are moving here from NYC because they've been priced out of every other comparable neighborhood, and they're going to keep coming. This is literally self evident because I scoured every neighborhood on the subway lines within an hour of Manhattan for a year before eventually buying an apartment that I saw on the first day I visited my affordable, my convenient transport into NYC, my good space and quality for the money, my reasonably safe, my oh-thank-you-lord McGinley Square.

I honestly think the reason it is affordable despite these amazing amenities is that NYCers are scared to cross the Hudson River. I don't know why. Maybe they haven't discovered the PATH and think they would have to canoe. Maybe they were scarred early in life by bon jovi, or malls. Whatever the reason, I'm thrilled. I'd like to present the Hudson River with a thank you card. I've been successively priced out of the Upper West Side (110th and broadway and then amsterdam ave and 120th, pretty darn grimy when I was living there - now all starbucks and banana republics, which is worse than grimy in my view), Park Slope (lincoln place between 7th and 8th. gorgeous neighborhood, amazing park, lots of nightlife options, bike into nyc . . . would still live there if I was a millionaire!), and Prospect Park (trendy now but seven years ago it was sketch city. All of the bodegas around the corner had these bullet proof windows installed in their doors. They closed the shop after dark and you had to pass your money through the glass if you wanted to buy anything, the selection being bad candy, bad cigarettes and bad beer. The local little St. Peter's shops are dean and deluca in comparison.)

The difference of opinion about whether McGinley is a 'nice' neighborhood or not is really just that - a difference of opinion. The citing of facts on every side has been very interesting but if your opinion of a place is already set, facts on either side of the argument don't really matter - they don't address what you personally need to be fact in order for a place to meet your personal definition of nice. For me and for the rest of the desperate yuppie hoards, which along with booming economies tend to drive the more commercial aspects of gentrifying neighborhoods, nice is affordability, reasonable safety, and convenience, and McGinley has those three things.

All that said, I do hope that whatever happens with Montgomery Gardens makes that area safer in the not too distant future. I don't give a fruit fly's behind about big ugly towers going into Journal Square or even the shiny new student center at St. Peter's College. But Montgomery Gardens/Montgomery Ave isn't an area that I feel comfortable walking by after dark, as a woman on my own, and personally I think that being able to walk to downtown jersey and the water at any time of day would be a practical bonus for the neighborhood. Well, fingers crossed on that one - I'm sure it will happen eventually.

Posted on: 2013/3/9 6:17
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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An $899,000 brownstone just South of McGinley Square just went under contract in 43 days. Prince Pizza in McGinley Square...the best. Soliel Lofts...stunning...McGinley Square. Quiet at night, McGinley Square. Excellent transportation and still affordable housing? McGinley Square. The Beacon? Stunning and better than so many complexes Downtown. I truly wish I could afford to live there.
To the person who wrote about the loss in housing values after 2007,DOH! You're kidding! You mean housing values dropped during the housing crisis??
Some people think the Square stinks because it's not white. Grow up. It's a fine neighborhood. Better in fact because prejudiced ash holes don't live in it.

Posted on: 2013/3/9 2:12
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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As a "non-downtown" resident, I enjoy reading these threads, and mostly pay attention to the people who actually live in these neighborhoods. But I also pay attention to careful and persuasive stats (thanks, getz).

I'm posting, though, because I want to call your attention to this article about what's going on in Brooklyn in terms of the spreading of gentrification. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/10/rea ... ower-home-prices.html?hpw

It reminds me of what is going on here in JC. If you substituted JC for Brooklyn in this excerpt, it would describe how I feel about my decidedly non-downtown neighborhood of Lafayette. “What many clients have told me is that they like the old Brooklyn vibe of these up-and-coming areas,” said Kristen Larkin, an agent with TOWN Residential. “They like the sense of community, friendliness of the neighbors, and the mom-and-pop shops that come along with it.”

I wasn't looking for the type of development that some perceive as necessary for a "good neighborhood." I was looking for what is here now, and if we get a bit of development (e.g., a coffee shop, a dry cleaner), that's cool but not necessary for me to love my neighborhood. When I walk through McGinley Square, I get the same vibe.

Posted on: 2013/3/8 22:28
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Quote:

moxiebaby wrote:
Vindication: I live in McGinley Square and walk to PATH daily. I've only been killed 4 times. You don't live there. You're info isn't accurate.


Only 4 times? You are one lucky resident. I think the average is 2 killings per block, or 2kpb for short.

I asked getz for some of the purchase and sale prices but no response yet. I'm waiting to be shut up. I've seen those stats and they don't look good. Again, when you look at those who purchased when beacon first began selling in late 2005 and early 2006 and sold in 2008, 2009, 2010 - you'll see drops as steep as a six flags roller coaster.

getz's data is confounded by those who purchase and sell in the same year and who purchased after significant depreciation already happened.

In any case, forgive me for labeling MS ghetto or rough around the edges, I meant it is a pristine example of urban living. lLet's go back to bashing Newport and how successful...errr I mean bland it is.


Posted on: 2013/3/8 22:04
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Vindication: I live in McGinley Square and walk to PATH daily. I've only been killed 4 times. You don't live there. You're info isn't accurate.

Posted on: 2013/3/8 21:50
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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user1111: I think the awkward thinking starts with the governor and just flows down. JC is just a few minutes from one of the greatest cities in the world and the City and state can't seem to or don't want to capitalize on this other than giving on abatements which smacks of the Wal-Mart or Dollar Store approach as opposed to the Nordstrom or Saks approach of focusing on quality or even freaking Target approach.

Posted on: 2013/3/7 20:31
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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vindication15 wrote:
I am not so much a basher as giving potential residents a realistic expectation of what will happen to them in regards to safety, their money that they invested, etc.


Anybody who would presumably make home buying decisions based on anonymous JCList postings has bigger problems than his or her finances. Worse, the ease at which you throw the word ghetto around, the presumptuous declaration that the Beacon is a “failed development,” and your conspicuously high level of protest doesn’t lend your opinion much credibility.

Posted on: 2013/3/7 18:47
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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hero69 wrote:
even downtown JC is lacking. There should be carefully thought, world class development but instead the City and state keep coming up with the same old tired ideas. Even the buildings at Newport suck!

Hoboken seems to get it, but its small. Healy seems to think he works for the developers first and voters second.

Exactly my point, I moved to my area less than two years ago, and not one person thought to have a block association? Really? it took the BK transplants to get Bayside the way it is. It took the Bk transplants to start cleaning up Ocean ave.

Over half of the new restaurants in GV are being started by Brooklyn and Manhattan transplants. The residents that been in GV for 40 years just seem lazy and have the mind set it is what it is... With all the new money dtjc has attracted, Newark ave still resembles MLK drive but with a few restaurants. Lacking is an understatement.

Posted on: 2013/3/7 18:00
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Yes, I believe a good part of Broolyn's gentrification is due to the fact that it is NYC and has access to the subway...but even downtown JC is lacking. There should be carefully thought, world class development but instead the City and state keep coming up with the same old tired ideas. Even the buildings at Newport suck!

Hoboken seems to get it, but its small. Healy seems to think he works for the developers first and voters second.

Posted on: 2013/3/7 17:45
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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One last post before I leave the country for a couple of weeks.

I live (and own) at The Beacon and love my condo as well as the community we're situated in.

The idea that, in any way, it is a failed project is simply not true. As soon as the Mercury's 126 rental units were complete last year, new residents poured in. The 157 units at the "Orpheum" are nearing completion and I'm certain will rent out in record time. The Paramount's 231 units are also under construction and, subsequently the "Tower" (East Hall) will be developed with 120 rental units. The 800-car multilevel garage should be ready before the summer. In what way is this a failed project?

Posted on: 2013/3/7 15:41
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Look, forget about the beacon for a second. MS has absolutely nothing going for itself. Not within walking distance to the PATH


The Beacon to JSQ is less than a mile (it's 2/3 mile)...it’s closer to the PATH than parts of Hamilton Park. The Beacon is toward the bottom center of MS, a lot of MS is closer to the PATH than the majority of DTJC, MS practically runs into the JSQ PATH station.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, it’s what makes the world such an interesting place. Vindication doesn’t have all the hard facts lined up, but he doesn’t need to, he has a right to his own perceptions and opinions. He doesnt like it in MS, we like it better here than when we lived in Paulus Hook or Grove St. My wife and I are looking to move into a rowhouse here when/if we decide to have kids. There is no right answer, only opinions and preferences. Think how boring and cookie-cutter it would be if everyone liked the same stuff:)

On the lighter side...there was a comment about people in the Beacon not being seen in the neighborhood. We apologize you havent been able to pick us out. We keep forgetting to wear our name tags and Beacon uniforms, we will start immediately so you can pick us out, we request you also wear yours...lol!

Posted on: 2013/3/7 2:48

Edited by JCSHEP on 2013/3/7 3:04:47
Edited by JCSHEP on 2013/3/7 3:05:26
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Quote:

user1111 wrote:
Quote:

SammyTheT wrote:
There's a couple of hundred million dollars of development going on at The Beacon right now - this is McGinley Square.

The new Saint Peter's University Student Center is a great new amenity for McGinley Square.

The Jersey City Housing Authority's redevelopment of Montgomery Gardens will be a major change in the feel of McGinley Square.

Why do people say that nothing is happening?


Agreed. I arrived in JC right after college in 95... and MS was a Hot A$$ Mess, now its just a mess, but it looks a whole lot better than 1995. The difference with JC folks and NYC folks no one in NYC waits for the city to fix up areas they invade them and the people begin to fix up the areas.

I grew up in the slums of Williamsburg and when the first Israelis (they arrive before the hipsters and artist) arrived it was not because of some new condos that were being built, it was because it was cheap and close to Manhattan and they came in large numbers.

Developers came way later to Williamsburg when it was already happening. My dad six unit building went from 330k to 3 million in a 5 year span. JC residents are very passive with an entitlement attitude and they wait for developers to decide their faith.

Lastly To all who have moved to other areas of the city other than dtjc good for you. F*ck the haters who trash your choice, they are just looking after their investment so trashing you is only way they know how, we don't want to give potential buyers or renters ideas that there is more to JC than just downtown.

God forbid a jclister post that he or she loves living in MS, they are condemned, called poor, or they must be black, insane or all the above.

I saw how Williamsburg change vs JC and things changed in WB quickly because people got involved, stayed involved. JC gov't and residents are lazy and if there is no money in it for them they can care less, this is why the city does not push development in other areas of the city.

Good luck to you all in MS!


I actually found the opposite to be true. I am not so much a basher as giving potential residents a realistic expectation of what will happen to them in regards to safety, their money that they invested, etc.

Look, forget about the beacon for a second. MS has absolutely nothing going for itself. Not within walking distance to the PATH, no good restaurants, project housing, crime, lack of a decent safe park, and failed developments.

I'm looking out for my investment in dtjc? I could care less if people moved to dtjc. If you have the money, move to NYC, it's the sure bet.

However, praising people for being "unique" and moving to the beacon to lose money, that is just wrong.

Getting back to the beacon for a second, I do believe there was a 26% drop in sales...when people purchased AFTER the bubble (purchase 2008) and sold the next year or two. In cases where they purchased in 2005 (when beacon first began selling for outrageous prices) and in early 2006 and sold in 2008,2009,2010, you'll see the 40-60% drops. Show me that data getz and I'll gladly take back everything. Unit number and purchase price and sold price please. We don't need any fancy math.

You people keep propping up these failed developments. Can't wait to see the "Hey, there's no more rats in Dixon Mills" thread.

I've shown, with numbers might I add, that you get more of a return and increase in home price in dtjc than other parts of jc but whatever -go buy in beacon, you'll be able to afford a penthouse for the price of a 2br in a similar establishment in downtown. Just don't leave the beacon and never sell and you'll be happy!






Posted on: 2013/3/6 22:38
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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User1111, there is no fundamental difference in the people who have changed JC versus the people who have changed Williamsburg, that is ridiculous. The difference is, in all parts of Brooklyn (and all of the outer boroughs) there are multiple subway stations that connect residents to Manhattan 24 hours a day. In JC, unfortunately there are only 4 stations, 3 of which are Downtown.

That is the reason why you see fairly far-out sections of Brooklyn that are WAY more gentrified (Lefferts Gardens, Prospect Park South, Crown Heights) than JC Heights and Greenville, McGinley Square, etc. Those areas of Brooklyn are further out from Manhattan than almost every part of JC as the crow flies.

Is it because people are terrified of crossing the NJ state line? Heck no, it's because those areas in JC lack a 24-hr connection to Manhattan. It truly is that simple.

My guess is you will see the South Bronx gentrify WAY before any area of Jersey City outside Downtown. Guess why?

Posted on: 2013/3/6 19:52
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Wow -- I wish my Dad made $3 mill on a 6 family -- how did he get it out of rent control? BTW we lived in Williamsburg for many years before we got priced out of buying there -- we spent a year looking all over Brooklyn & Queens as well as Harlem before we landed here -- and I can honestly say you do get a lot more house for your money in other parts of town -- but you do have other issues to face.

Posted on: 2013/3/6 18:49
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Quote:

SammyTheT wrote:
There's a couple of hundred million dollars of development going on at The Beacon right now - this is McGinley Square.

The new Saint Peter's University Student Center is a great new amenity for McGinley Square.

The Jersey City Housing Authority's redevelopment of Montgomery Gardens will be a major change in the feel of McGinley Square.

Why do people say that nothing is happening?


Agreed. I arrived in JC right after college in 95... and MS was a Hot A$$ Mess, now its just a mess, but it looks a whole lot better than 1995. The difference with JC folks and NYC folks no one in NYC waits for the city to fix up areas they invade them and the people begin to fix up the areas.

I grew up in the slums of Williamsburg and when the first Israelis (they arrive before the hipsters and artist) arrived it was not because of some new condos that were being built, it was because it was cheap and close to Manhattan and they came in large numbers.

Developers came way later to Williamsburg when it was already happening. My dad six unit building went from 330k to 3 million in a 5 year span. JC residents are very passive with an entitlement attitude and they wait for developers to decide their faith.

Lastly To all who have moved to other areas of the city other than dtjc good for you. F*ck the haters who trash your choice, they are just looking after their investment so trashing you is only way they know how, we don't want to give potential buyers or renters ideas that there is more to JC than just downtown.

God forbid a jclister post that he or she loves living in MS, they are condemned, called poor, or they must be black, insane or all the above.

I saw how Williamsburg change vs JC and things changed in WB quickly because people got involved, stayed involved. JC gov't and residents are lazy and if there is no money in it for them they can care less, this is why the city does not push development in other areas of the city.

Good luck to you all in MS!

Posted on: 2013/3/6 17:55
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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What was Burger King's promise to revitalize the neighborhood? What did they have in mind in order to accomplish this? I'm just curious how a fast food restaurant can impact a neighborhood, either positively or negatively.

Does anybody know why the nabe is called McGinley Square? Is there an actual "square", or plaza, as in Journal Square?

Posted on: 2013/3/6 17:23
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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PlainSlice wrote:

The second failure, which I won't put on the Beacon, is how low our sights have fallen. When built, it was not a vision of luxury residences for NY commuters and global business trekkers. It was a vision of accessible medical care for the community.


http://www.njcu.edu/programs/jchistor ... edical_Center_Complex.htm

With the assistance of the Works Progress Administration during the Depression, new buildings were added to the Jersey City Medical Center Complex. Hague's interest and pride in the medical facility resulted in the inclusion of an office in Murdoch Hall, which served as a second office away from City Hall. It is described as a mahogany paneled office with a concealed door to leave by the back hallway in the complex.

The Medical Center became the pride of the mayor and the city. Free health care was provided to those residents who could not afford to pay. It is claimed that during the Hague years, the hospital cost $3 million to operate annually, but in a year, such as 1929, it brought in less than $15,000 in payments. By 1934, it had 750 employees and treated approximately 900 patients daily. The formal dedication of the Medical Center Complex was on October 2, 1936, with President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Mayor Hague in attendance before a reported crowd of 200,000.

From the completion of the Medical Center in 1941, it was considered to be larger than necessary for the city's population, overstaffed, and fiscally irresponsible.

Posted on: 2013/3/6 16:55
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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PlainSlice wrote:

4. Home to what is probably the city's least visible, least effective SID.


There, I corrected it for you.

Instead of arguing over the Beacon, we should be talking about this. It pains me walking down Bergen every day that millions of dollars were spent on sidewalks, trees, facades, etc, and they just let it all go to crap and not require repairs and new construction to match. Weeds grow rampant, faulty installation of pavers is never corrected, trees are allowed to die and never replanted, and on and on. I forget the name of the woman who "manages" the SID, but she should have been fired years ago. There are some bright spots -- Valerie at Lee Sim's Chocolates in particular is a saint for her commitment to the neighborhood -- but someone with vision and drive needs to clean house in that commercial district.

Posted on: 2013/3/6 16:37
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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As interesting as all this statistical bickering is (getz011 wins), it misses the original question about McGinley Square.

Maybe some of the Beacon folks have a different opinion, but down on the streets of the McGinley area, Beacon residents are not known or identified as such, and nobody really sees any significant effect on the neighborhood. The same for JCHA plans at Montgomery Gardens. Those do not seem connected to McGinley Square, and I sure don't see anything happening in the area until something happens AT the Square.

The Burger King has also not realized its promise of neighborhood revitalization. Please forgive me for not holding my breath.

Posted on: 2013/3/6 15:35
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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It's not entirely accurate to assume that the owners lost that much of their investments since a very large percentage of the recent sales have been short sales. I bought a short sale there myself. The owners lost their deposits, which may have been as low as 5% for FHA backed loans (remember the good old days). From what I have witnessed many of them stopped paying their mortgages and HOA fees long ago had have lived essentially for free for a long while. The owner I bought from hadn't paid his mortgage or HOA in nearly two years. This represents a form of claw-back in which some of the money is reclaimed if the owner is living for free in the unit or continuing to receive rent checks for an tenant. In order for us to close on the property the bank had to pay all sums owed to the condo association plus penalties. ... just saying.

Who really loses in these cases, I think we all do since the banks then turn to the government to recoup their losses for these FHA backed loans. i.e. BAIL OUT!!

Posted on: 2013/3/6 15:25
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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getz011 wrote:
Hi vindication,

I had a bit of free time to pull sales records from the Beacon from 2006-12 and ran some analyses. The data substantially replicate those that were used in the production of the nj.com article you cited. Data validation, methods and outcomes are summarized below. Let me know anytime if you'd like a copy of the dataset used to run these numbers, or if you're interested in any specific data cuts.

Based on a sample of more than 300 sales records, the data suggest that sales values have decreased by about 26% on average, but that varies substantially based on initial sales price. The sales cost of lower priced units (units that sold for $399,000 or less) decreased the most, roughly 32%. Units priced higher than that seemed to hold their value much better; on average, sales costs for these dropped only about 14% or so after the crash.

Conclusion: There's nothing to suggest a drop of 40%-60% in any unit type/size, much less the across-the-board drop for everything at the Beacon you asserted earlier: "most [Beacon] units lost 40%-60%...."

I went to this effort because I find it profoundly offensive that you accuse me of "lying... that the beacon and other similar type of condos are in good locations, good investments, etc." I've done no such thing - I've only pointed out the errors in your math and analyses, which in this case fit a pattern of extreme hyperbole in your claims. You've also accused me in the past of claiming that Lafayette is better than other parts of JC, which I've never done (and which assertion you retracted, to your credit).

These steps outline my analysis and outcomes:

Step 1: Replicate and prepare the data

I pulled all the Beacon sales records from Hudson County Public Records and recorded the following variables: month and year of sale; square footage; recorded sales price. Based on the latter two variables, I calculated the property value per square foot at time of sale.

The public records have a number of records for which the square footage is listed as zero; these cases were excluded. Also excluded were outliers with a square foot value that fell below or above a certain range based on standard deviation, which is the accepted practice in statistics. I also eliminated a handful of cases before sales began in earnest in 2006, and a single recorded sale in 2013. This resulted in a sample of n=305 cases, ranging from $102/ft2 at time of sale to $760/ft2.

The dataset includes both individual cases mentioned in the article: Leon Potts ($484,600 purchase / 1000 ft2) and Bill Matsikoudis ($335,500 / 1176 ft2).

The dataset is in SPSS format and I'm happy to share it with anyone upon request.


Step 2: Validate the data

My goal was to use a dataset as identical as possible to the one used in the nj.com article you cite as your source. That article cited these numbers:

2007: 191 sales, when "most buyers paid $458 a square foot or more." The dataset I built has 173 sales in 2007, with 54% of those having a per-square-foot value of $458 or more. The average per-square-foot value for that year in my dataset is $465.

2010: 26 sales, with an average price of $339 per square foot. My dataset has 29 sales in 2010, with an average per-square-foot value of $323.

So far, so good - these are very similar, which increase my confidence in the results I came up with.


Step 3: Run the numbers

I ran a number of analyses and would gladly report them all. In the interest of brevity, I'll focus on analysis of two main time periods: 2006-2007 (i.e., pre-crash) and 2008-12 (post crash).

Overall sales values for all properties across these periods (dollar values represent cost per square foot):

2006-07: $460
2008-12: $341
Reduction in value: 26%

But wait - vindication has pointed out repeatedly the nj.com article's anecdotal observation ("Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000") means that property values at the Beacon are actually down 40% to 60%. In fact, he used this quote in his earlier post to argue that not just some properties lost this much value, but a majority: "most units lost 40%-60%... beacon homeowners lost 40%-60% of their value"

I wanted to test this hypothesis. It's definitely not reasonable to look at all sale values at the Beacon and draw conclusions about properties in a specific price range, so I narrowed my analysis only to properties within the range of $450,000 to $549,000. Here's what I got:

Per-square-foot values for Beacon properties selling for $450,000 to $549,000:

2006-07: $473
2008-12: $424
Reduction in value: 10%

10% - wow! That's a far cry from 40%-60%. This made me think I was too restrictive with the properties I selected, and I decided to cast a wider net. In this analysis, I used properties that sold within the range of $400,000 to $599,000:

Per-square-foot values for Beacon properties selling for $400,000 to $599,000:

2006-07: $473
2008-12: $406
Reduction in value: 14%

That's still an unusually low drop. So I got curious: what was the biggest drop? Not surprisingly, it was in properties at the lowest end of the sales range, those that sold for up to $399,000. Unfortunately for 85 buyers in that range in 2006-07, these are the outcomes:

Per-square-foot values for Beacon properties selling for up to $399,000:

2006-07: $440
2008-12: $301
Reduction in value: 32%

Step 4: Conclusion

Based on these outcomes, there appears to be reasonable evidence of a general reduction in Beacon property sales values of about 26% between 2006-07 and 2012 across all units, not controlling for variables such as amenities, level of renovation, view, etc. There is considerable variability based on original sales price, suggesting that units that sold for $400,000 or more lost far less value than those priced lower.

However, there is insufficient evidence at this time to suggest an across-the-board reduction in property values of 40%-60% between 2006-07 and 2012.


Lots of words, loads of bull. You say you have the data, great. Show me sales of those who bought for outrageous prices in 2005, 2006 when Beacon first opened and sold in 2008, 2009, even 2010 for 40-60 percent drops.

I know people who bought and sold at the beacon, it's an insult to them that you suggest they didn't lose that amount of money.

btw, these per square foot values mean nothing and was not what I was talking about...at all actually. And you don't have to send me data, post it on the forum. Unit number and prices please

Posted on: 2013/3/6 14:48
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Hi vindication,

I had a bit of free time to pull sales records from the Beacon from 2006-12 and ran some analyses. The data substantially replicate those that were used in the production of the nj.com article you cited. Data validation, methods and outcomes are summarized below. Let me know anytime if you'd like a copy of the dataset used to run these numbers, or if you're interested in any specific data cuts.

Based on a sample of more than 300 sales records, the data suggest that sales values have decreased by about 26% on average, but that varies substantially based on initial sales price. The sales cost of lower priced units (units that sold for $399,000 or less) decreased the most, roughly 32%. Units priced higher than that seemed to hold their value much better; on average, sales costs for these dropped only about 14% or so after the crash.

Conclusion: There's nothing to suggest a drop of 40%-60% in any unit type/size, much less the across-the-board drop for everything at the Beacon you asserted earlier: "most [Beacon] units lost 40%-60%...."

I went to this effort because I find it profoundly offensive that you accuse me of "lying... that the beacon and other similar type of condos are in good locations, good investments, etc." I've done no such thing - I've only pointed out the errors in your math and analyses, which in this case fit a pattern of extreme hyperbole in your claims. You've also accused me in the past of claiming that Lafayette is better than other parts of JC, which I've never done (and which assertion you retracted, to your credit).

These steps outline my analysis and outcomes:

Step 1: Replicate and prepare the data

I pulled all the Beacon sales records from Hudson County Public Records and recorded the following variables: month and year of sale; square footage; recorded sales price. Based on the latter two variables, I calculated the property value per square foot at time of sale.

The public records have a number of records for which the square footage is listed as zero; these cases were excluded. Also excluded were outliers with a square foot value that fell below or above a certain range based on standard deviation, which is the accepted practice in statistics. I also eliminated a handful of cases before sales began in earnest in 2006, and a single recorded sale in 2013. This resulted in a sample of n=305 cases, ranging from $102/ft2 at time of sale to $760/ft2.

The dataset includes both individual cases mentioned in the article: Leon Potts ($484,600 purchase / 1000 ft2) and Bill Matsikoudis ($335,500 / 1176 ft2).

The dataset is in SPSS format and I'm happy to share it with anyone upon request.


Step 2: Validate the data

My goal was to use a dataset as identical as possible to the one used in the nj.com article you cite as your source. That article cited these numbers:

2007: 191 sales, when "most buyers paid $458 a square foot or more." The dataset I built has 173 sales in 2007, with 54% of those having a per-square-foot value of $458 or more. The average per-square-foot value for that year in my dataset is $465.

2010: 26 sales, with an average price of $339 per square foot. My dataset has 29 sales in 2010, with an average per-square-foot value of $323.

So far, so good - these are very similar, which increase my confidence in the results I came up with.


Step 3: Run the numbers

I ran a number of analyses and would gladly report them all. In the interest of brevity, I'll focus on analysis of two main time periods: 2006-2007 (i.e., pre-crash) and 2008-12 (post crash).

Overall sales values for all properties across these periods (dollar values represent cost per square foot):

2006-07: $460
2008-12: $341
Reduction in value: 26%

But wait - vindication has pointed out repeatedly the nj.com article's anecdotal observation ("Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000") means that property values at the Beacon are actually down 40% to 60%. In fact, he used this quote in his earlier post to argue that not just some properties lost this much value, but a majority: "most units lost 40%-60%... beacon homeowners lost 40%-60% of their value"

I wanted to test this hypothesis. It's definitely not reasonable to look at all sale values at the Beacon and draw conclusions about properties in a specific price range, so I narrowed my analysis only to properties within the range of $450,000 to $549,000. Here's what I got:

Per-square-foot values for Beacon properties selling for $450,000 to $549,000:

2006-07: $473
2008-12: $424
Reduction in value: 10%

10% - wow! That's a far cry from 40%-60%. This made me think I was too restrictive with the properties I selected, and I decided to cast a wider net. In this analysis, I used properties that sold within the range of $400,000 to $599,000:

Per-square-foot values for Beacon properties selling for $400,000 to $599,000:

2006-07: $473
2008-12: $406
Reduction in value: 14%

That's still an unusually low drop. So I got curious: what was the biggest drop? Not surprisingly, it was in properties at the lowest end of the sales range, those that sold for up to $399,000. Unfortunately for 85 buyers in that range in 2006-07, these are the outcomes:

Per-square-foot values for Beacon properties selling for up to $399,000:

2006-07: $440
2008-12: $301
Reduction in value: 32%

Step 4: Conclusion

Based on these outcomes, there appears to be reasonable evidence of a general reduction in Beacon property sales values of about 26% between 2006-07 and 2012 across all units, not controlling for variables such as amenities, level of renovation, view, etc. There is considerable variability based on original sales price, suggesting that units that sold for $400,000 or more lost far less value than those priced lower.

However, there is insufficient evidence at this time to suggest an across-the-board reduction in property values of 40%-60% between 2006-07 and 2012.

Posted on: 2013/3/6 5:04
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Quote:

getz011 wrote:
You continue to miss the point about what anecdotal evidence is. Here’s a nice overview:

In all forms of anecdotal evidence, its reliability by objective independent assessment may be in doubt. This is a consequence of the informal way the information is gathered, documented, presented, or any combination of the three. The term is often used to describe evidence for which there is an absence of documentation, leaving verification dependent on the credibility of the party presenting the evidence.

In science, anecdotal evidence has been defined as:
"information that is not based on careful study”
"casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis"


No one is saying that the newspaper is printing “fake news.” The evidence provided is insufficient to back the assertion of a 40% to 60% drop. “Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000…” is anecdotal evidence; there’s no indication of:

- How many units comprise the sample
- What the mead/median purchase prices were
- What the mean/median sales prices were

That’s what T-bird said, and that’s what I continue to say. The evidence is insufficient to back the assertion. Where the article does provide mean values and a sample size, it backs a claim of a 26% drop.

Quote:
You people propping up areas in the ghetto are doing a disservice to potential jc residents - lying to them that the beacon and other similar type of condos are in good locations, good investments, etc.


All I’m doing is pointing out a glaring mistake in your reasoning and interpretation. I’ve taught a university level class in statistics/regression analysis, and this is a mistake that an undergrad wouldn’t make after the first 3 days of class. I don't care how rude or unpleasant you choose to be if you at least show reasonable evidence to back what you're saying.

Quote:
a person sees my post and decides not to buy in the beacon and lose their life savings. A person sees your post and buys in the beacon and loses their life savings


How many people have you saved? And how many lives have I ruined?


I think my last post on the subject. Can't explain it anymore than I have....That sentence (UNLESS YOU THINK IT IS FAKE)

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

Means MORE THAN ONE UNIT (yes we don't know how many, but we know it's more than one unit cause of residents) lost an amount of CLOSE TO BUT NOT OVER 500k to CLOSE TO OR EQUAL TO 200k. That could be anywhere from a 40-60% drop, hence my stat.

Whether that is the majority of sales or not is not given. However, that combined with the other data point given and the prices of condo units compared to other luxury condos in downtown leads me to believe they fell much greater than the downtown market and that 40-60% is common, not an extreme.

Who have you ruined? I think anyone who read your post and bought at the beacon can be considered ruined.

Posted on: 2013/3/5 18:19
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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vindication15 wrote:
That is why I am so "nasty" Although seriously, I'm an online poster on a forum you most likely have never and will never meet. My words shouldn't have any affect on you, at all.


Incidentally, I didn't refer to your post as nasty. That's especially rich, given your observation that "reading comprehension is not [my] strong point."

Posted on: 2013/3/5 0:55
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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You continue to miss the point about what anecdotal evidence is. Here’s a nice overview:

In all forms of anecdotal evidence, its reliability by objective independent assessment may be in doubt. This is a consequence of the informal way the information is gathered, documented, presented, or any combination of the three. The term is often used to describe evidence for which there is an absence of documentation, leaving verification dependent on the credibility of the party presenting the evidence.

In science, anecdotal evidence has been defined as:
"information that is not based on careful study”
"casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis"


No one is saying that the newspaper is printing “fake news.” The evidence provided is insufficient to back the assertion of a 40% to 60% drop. “Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000…” is anecdotal evidence; there’s no indication of:

- How many units comprise the sample
- What the mead/median purchase prices were
- What the mean/median sales prices were

That’s what T-bird said, and that’s what I continue to say. The evidence is insufficient to back the assertion. Where the article does provide mean values and a sample size, it backs a claim of a 26% drop.

Quote:
You people propping up areas in the ghetto are doing a disservice to potential jc residents - lying to them that the beacon and other similar type of condos are in good locations, good investments, etc.


All I’m doing is pointing out a glaring mistake in your reasoning and interpretation. I’ve taught a university level class in statistics/regression analysis, and this is a mistake that an undergrad wouldn’t make after the first 3 days of class. I don't care how rude or unpleasant you choose to be if you at least show reasonable evidence to back what you're saying.

Quote:
a person sees my post and decides not to buy in the beacon and lose their life savings. A person sees your post and buys in the beacon and loses their life savings


How many people have you saved? And how many lives have I ruined?

Posted on: 2013/3/4 21:02
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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getz011 wrote:
Hi vindication,

though I often disagree with you, I do think you often make some good points. What I tried to point out was that your claim of 40%-60% drops in value at the Beacon wasn't supported by the data in the article you quoted. T-Bird pointed out below, much more articulately than I, the reasons why.

If you have data based on sales between 2007-10 at the Beacon, or McGinley Square, or wherever that show a 40%-60% drop in square-foot value for comparable properties, please post it. I'd love to see it and promise to be the first to admit my error. (BTW, in analysis we usually look for a minimum sample of 30 cases before trying to draw any meaningful conclusions, but 20-25 cases in this context would certainly seem enough to suggest a trend.)

True story: for the past few years a raccoon has been showing up on my deck and eating food that I put out for feral cats. I've written up the fake newspaper story below to be analogous to the snippet of the nj.com article you quoted:

When getz looked out the back window of his home in Lafayette one night in 2009, he was alarmed to see, for the first time, a feral raccoon foraging dementedly for food on his deck. Four years later, he says, it's sometimes possible to look out and see a feral raccoon there 5 times a month. Asked if it was the same raccoon foraging on his deck all these years, getz said, 'You know, I can't tell. Feral raccoons look pretty similar to me.'

"Other residents of Lafayette had almost never seen a feral raccoon foraging in their yard; now, however, some say they spot one about 2 or 3 times monthly. They're pinning their hopes on Jersey City animal control to end the pattern of feral raccoon foraging in their neighborhood.


Based on these two paragraphs, one might argue that there's sufficient data there to prove that the feral raccoon population of Lafayette is up 500% since 2009, and that my neighbors and I are now overrun. That's not the case, of course. The raccoon has learned where there's food and he keeps coming back; some others on my street have seen him, too.

Enjoy the weekend!



quite simple, you don't have an article about racoons on nj.com. Either you are saying:

1) The article on nj.com is fake news

OR

2) a loss from 500k-200k is not over 50%

Pick one. Please refer to my response to tbird. You people propping up areas in the ghetto are doing a disservice to potential jc residents - lying to them that the beacon and other similar type of condos are in good locations, good investments, etc. That is why I am so "nasty" Although seriously, I'm an online poster on a forum you most likely have never and will never meet. My words shouldn't have any affect on you, at all.

Posted on: 2013/3/3 22:21
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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Quote:

T-Bird wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:

Really? Really? It's one single data point from paragraph 2 because it's ONE example from ONE paragraph of the MANY paragraph article...

Let me re-paste another paragraph because even though you might do data analysis, reading comprehension is not your strong point:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

Residents is plural meaning more than a single resident which implies more than a single unit.

500k to 200k is more than a 50% decrease in value hence my earlier stats.

Look, either you think the paragraph I am talking about is FALSE or there is no help for you.


Why be nasty? I've found Getz to be a thoughtful poster who is considerate in his/her treatment of others. Why not return the kindness? I'm not interested enough to do a tax records search but based on the article you put up, I don't see how you can argue with Getz.

"Some residents" is FOX News-type laziness/overstatement. The article cites only two actual sales. So of the 28 sales that are discussed, you have 26 with an average drop of 26%, one at 38% and one that fits your claim but is suspect because they are using the purchase price of one unit and comparing it to the sales price of another. Even better, the one sale you cite might be included in the 26 sales that experienced a 26% drop because there is no date given for its sale!

The fact is, a 26% drop during the timeframe they focused on (2007 to 2010) is not really that different from what the downtown condo market experienced in general - but that would make for a much less interesting article. Fortunately, the market has rebounded pretty sharply over the past year+ and hopefully the Beacon will experience a similar recovery.


rofl. Anecdotal would be something like, "I have heard that some people eat mice everyday" Giving figures from 200k to 500k is pretty concrete unless you think it's fake and then nj.com is posting fake news.

Look, You think The Beacon, given its location, had the same price drop as those condos in downtown jersey city during ANY PERIOD, then you shouldn't be talking about real estate. The Beacon, as the article states, experienced a 40-60 percent price drop during the roughest times. AND NOW, CURRENT DAY, trails a downtown condo in price with similar type of amenities. Just look at what a NYC view 1 BR in shore club or crystal point or 77 hudson will get you and look at the beacon 1 br prices. It's a joke.

The beacon is a failed project. They can give out free pots of gold there but unless you transplant the beacon from its current crime ridden location, it will fail.

You might think I'm being nasty? I think you're being nasty because a person sees my post and decides not to buy in the beacon and lose their life savings. A person sees your post and buys in the beacon and loses their life savings. Who's nasty now?

I'm looking out for jc residents. What are you and getz doing?

Posted on: 2013/3/3 22:16
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Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?
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JCRealist wrote:
None of these areas will be developed unless the city stops these abatements downtown.


That's a realistic assessment. Why develop a "new" area when you've got a more certain bet downtown with the same financial advantage?

In Jersey City, abatements have long been removed from any kind of land-use planning policy. Instead, they have become a tool of political influence-peddling.

You kind of wonder why taxpayers have taken so long to vote their pocketbook.

Posted on: 2013/3/3 15:39
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