I concede. You are wiser than I. Thank you.

Steve, your ?6 factors? would have been handy for tulip merchants to assess the value their product in early 17th century Netherlands. I Substituted ?tulip? for ?property.?

1. Has the tulip previously had numerous FULL PRICE offers
2. The value of tulips in the neighborhood recently sold or for sale
3. The location
4. What a comparable tulips ... would sell for
5. The unique characters of the tulip?.
6. The sophistication of the potential buyer?(many of the traders were intelligent and sophisticated, but still lost their shirts)

There are three methods that appraisers use to assess the value of a property:
* Cost approach
* Comparison Approach
* Income Approach (used primarily for commercial properties)

Steve? factors cover the first two, but not the third. The comparison approach provides a ?snapshot? of the value. The income approach is useful for assessing the longer term value -- for folks that wish to live in their homes, instead of immediately ?flipping? them.

A formula that I learned in business school that demonstrates the income approach is as follows:

Monthly rental income * 100= fair market value.

For example, a house that could be rented for $2,000 per month has a market value of $200,000. In our current market a condo that could be rented for $2,000 has a selling price of well over $400,000. This is an indication that something is amiss.

IMHO, this is NOT a good time to invest in real estate. I could be wrong! Prices could double, even triple, but I don?t think they will. Time will tell.

See: Tulipmania

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The model is extremely sophisticated and way too complex for simple num nuts to comprehend; fundamentally it's based around the share price of 4-year old tech stocks, the posiition of the Moon, what I had for lunch, and the strength of the stench of my socks. Patent Pending.

I never, never ever take into account:
1. Has the property previously had numerous FULL PRICE offers
2. The value of property in the neighborhood recently sold or for sale
3. The location
4. What a comparable property in NYC and/or Brooklyn, etc. would sell for
5. The unique characters of the property, i.e. is it a one of its kind rowhouse or a 1000sqft condo, and the supply of said properties.
6. The sophistication of the potential buyer: i.e. is the buyer able to either qualify for a $1M mortgage with $1M in cash or might possibly have $2M in cash, (usually a strong indicator of a financial idiot or "fool" lacking the ability to make a calculated judgment as to whether a property is correctly priced). Or are they a wise property shark taking a 100% $400K mortgage on a pre-construction condo "cuz it's gotta to be worth $800K when me flips it".

What valuation model are you using? Was Exodus worth $90 because other fools bought it for $90?

See chart

A stock is NOT the same as real estate, but they are both subject to cycles and bubble.

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Do you know which house it is?

And another one ($150K less than $2M), but this one has a car parking space.

http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/84240107.html

I was trying to find the ad on craigs list and was unsuccesful. Any tips?

I haven't seen the property and am not sure of its exact location but depending on its condition and size, asking price of $2M is not all that crazy. We JC people tend to downplay the greatness of our neighborhood. I for one prefer to live here than many parts of Brooklyn, Queens and even some parts of Manhattan. So, there are townhouses and brownstones that go way above $2M in Carrol Gardens, Windsor Terrace, Green Point, Fort Green, Hoboken and Prospect Heights, why not in Paulus Hook, Van Vorst Park and Hamilton Park of JC? The $ per sqf of condos in all these areas are very similar anyway.

Maybe a year back there was a $1.75M brownstone listing on Van Vorst. I have no idea if it sold, or what the final price may have been.

How bout a $1M duplex near Van Vorst Park? Actually there are 2 of them they are trying to sell.
See crazy prices here

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The brownstone in question is on Sussex Street, the block between Washington and Greene, directly facing Pronto Cena.

My wife and I went into the building when it was originally on the market about 12 months ago. The owner was asking $1.3M, and received THREE full price offers.

So why didn't the owner sell then? Basically, the guy has owned the building for 20+ years. The ad on Craiglist is a little misleading, he has spent a lot on the place, none of wisely or to my taste. He's cut the interior up pretty badly, i.e. the parlor level is one unit, the second and third is a duplex unit (where the owner lives) and the top floor is another unit. The basement is nice, but again not done to my taste. There is very little original detail, even the staircase isn't original.

The owner's accountant talked the guy out of selling for $1.3M, because the owner doesn?t have a mortgage on the property and it?s generating about $4K a month in rental income. Anyway, he had original listed it for $1.3M thinking it was a high figure, then got the three full price offers, had second thoughts and took it off the market for 6 months and has put it back on the market for $2M.

Is it worth $2M? To me, no. It needs $350K+ spending on the interior to turn it into a beautiful single family brownstone. However, it's in the best area of Jersey City, on probably the best street, and probably the best block of the street.
Is it worth $1.3M? Obviously it is ? 3 full price offers confirms that.
Is it worth $1.5M? Probably when you compare the fact that 1800sqft in The Sugar House, with no view and no outdoor space is listed for $1.4M.
Is it worth $1.8M? Maybe, there's a brownstone on VVP which again needs $300K+ spending on the interior and the $2M brownstone is arguably in a better location.

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I still see it there:

http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/82915519.html

This listing has been deleted. The seller or agent must've gotten a good dose of reality

Can the 14 foot sub-basement be used as a swimming pool after a heary rain???

I must be dreaming. I saw this listing on Craigslist for a brownstone in Paulus Hook on the market for $2M.

Anyone know which house it is?

Here is the listing.
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................ The Finest Brownstone in Paulus Hook...Totally Redone.............
.............................................TWO MILLION DOLLARS..........................................
.........HUGE REDWOOD DECK...HOT TUB...5 MARBLE FIREPLACES......... ..................................A PATIO LARGE ENOUGH FOR 50...............................

Rarely does a property this remarkable come to market. A 4-Family Brownstone built in 1860 and updated with the care and attention to detail by it's perfection obsessive owner. 5 original marble-mantle fireplaces. 5 marble baths with jacuzzis. A redwood deck so large, you could invite the office over for cocktails.(It also has a hot tub and Wolf Stainless grill system.) And a huge backyard that is all patio and all party.

This brownstone is currently home to 4 families. It can be converted to a duplex for the owner and 2 rental units or remain as it is today - a remarkable property on the grandest street in Jersey City's Paulus Hook. Build your own roof deck and you have a lookout tower over Manhattan, Jersey City and beyond.

Just enter the 14 ft entrance foyer and you'll get your first idea of what care and attention can bring to a property. And this property is remarkable. Nothing has to be done to it - except move in.

This is a true brownstone with something no other brownstone in this area even thought to design. A sub-basement. 14 feet below ground. Designed by the owner and dug from the sandy soil 14 feet below --to create a gym/entertainment room. Marble floors, granite bath with jacuzzi. A spectacular and remarkable space. The steel beams to support this undertaking could hold up an apartment house.

Next ... the deck. A redwood deck between the parlor and 2nd floors - with a hot tub for those sultry summer nights and weekends. With a stainless steel Wolf outdoor grill system. And all the room - plus all the strength-- to hold up any gathering.

And then there are the apartments. Each has its own unique personality. But all share the same care and attention that ithe owner has given to the entire property. From marble baths to excpetional kitchen. The owner has scrimpted at nothing. And redone everything. From roof to electrical to
you name it.