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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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My highly inexpert advice would be now's not the time to flip condos in JC. There are so many being built at once, and people are already nervous about the market.

Course, I don't think I'd personally flip a condo as an investment under any circumstances.

I do think people have made some persuasive arguments here that, in the long run, the Jersey City market will remain strong due to demand from the Wall St. folk and NYC in general. But I have a feeling we're going to see a period where buyers really take their time because they have so many new options to choose from.

Posted on: 2006/9/17 6:12
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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Quote:

mike_s55 wrote:
I wrote this on the kannekt message board regarding all those who think they are geniouses by explaining exactly where the market is, truth is you never know, here is my post:

So for the last few years I visit the message boards from time to time and read the media, and all these "brilliant" opinionated people perdicting the direction of where and when and how much housing is going to crash and why you shouldnt own a home, as they crunch all the numbers. Ok so yes I do agree that housing is expensive and yes it is getting even more expensive over the last few years. So I definitely am real about expectations, am not a fool to thing prices will appreciate year over year etc.

What I wanted to point out though, in 2001 right after the dot com crash I decided to buy stock in Toll Brothers (TOL) and Hovnanian (HOV) both home builders. I didnt buy it because i had a crystal ball and crunch all these magical numbers being able to predict the future, i decided to buy this stock because in investors business daily i read about them because their relative strength looked good, P/E looked cheap, balance sheet etc. Absolutely no speculation at all. After i purchased the stock i would get caught up in reading the Yahoo Finance message boards. The boards were full of these "genious" predictors theorizing all these magical and fabulously complicated reasons as to why you should short the stock or sell all your shares because we are in a housing bubble and the real estate world was going to collapse. After reading those messages I got nervous and sold the stock. Unfortunately for me, the next 4 years proved to be an incredible time to own a home and the stock as i watched TOL and HOV go up in value both by almost 1000%.

I decided to revist those message boards the other day and got a huge kick out of how almost erriley similar those messages that back then scared me out of owning the stock are in 2001 about the housing bubble that exists and that everyone will be running for the exits, and the messages i read today in 2006. Here is a link to those message boards so that you can see what i am talking about.

Now i am not discrediting either sides arguments it is just appropriate for those doom sayers to step back, take a deep breath and observe how strickingly similar their arguments in 2001 were to today.


TOLL BROTHERS STOCK MESSAGE BOARD 2000-2002 with word bubble

http://betasearch.messages.yahoo.com/ ... Month=9&eDay=1&eYear=2002


HOVNANIAN STOCK MESSAGE BOARD 2001-2002 with word bubble

http://betasearch.messages.yahoo.com/ ... Month=9&eDay=1&eYear=2002


You can't take anything you read on the yahoo message boards very seriously. I'll bet half the people who post there don't even own the stocks they are posting about! No offense, but shame on you for taking your investment cues from them!

Posted on: 2006/9/17 4:59
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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JoyOfSound wrote:
i checked out gull's cove online and spoke with their realtor.

you can buy a condo at pre-construction for 10% (of $380k for a 1-bedroom; $38,000), and not pay any mortgage or taxes until the unit is occupiable, which would be fall of 2007.

for flipping purposes, it seems that by the fall of 2007, the same unit could be worth maybe 100k MORE than the original purchase price.

it seems like a good investment to just flip the property, but i've never done such a large investment (i live in a unit i bought 2 years ago in journal square).

anyone have any experience with flipping condos? i was really considering buying one at gull's cove.

also, the realtor said it's four blocks from grove street path, though the original post said it was too far from the PATH....


Do you really believe the unit will increase 26% within a year? In this market?

You would be lucky if it increases 5%, but then closing costs, capital gains, and tranfer taxes will cut into any profit you might make.

Posted on: 2006/9/17 4:54
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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if you saved 100,000 why wouldn't you invest in a house downtown that you could actually add additions and stuff?
i guess some people prefer a view and not having to handle maintenance and stuff?
there are houses for sale close to the liberty state park light rail cheaper than the beacon condos.
i just can't see investing in a condo. but then again i have a cranky dog and couldn't really do condo living.

Posted on: 2006/9/16 21:55
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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I wrote this on the kannekt message board regarding all those who think they are geniouses by explaining exactly where the market is, truth is you never know, here is my post:

So for the last few years I visit the message boards from time to time and read the media, and all these "brilliant" opinionated people perdicting the direction of where and when and how much housing is going to crash and why you shouldnt own a home, as they crunch all the numbers. Ok so yes I do agree that housing is expensive and yes it is getting even more expensive over the last few years. So I definitely am real about expectations, am not a fool to thing prices will appreciate year over year etc.

What I wanted to point out though, in 2001 right after the dot com crash I decided to buy stock in Toll Brothers (TOL) and Hovnanian (HOV) both home builders. I didnt buy it because i had a crystal ball and crunch all these magical numbers being able to predict the future, i decided to buy this stock because in investors business daily i read about them because their relative strength looked good, P/E looked cheap, balance sheet etc. Absolutely no speculation at all. After i purchased the stock i would get caught up in reading the Yahoo Finance message boards. The boards were full of these "genious" predictors theorizing all these magical and fabulously complicated reasons as to why you should short the stock or sell all your shares because we are in a housing bubble and the real estate world was going to collapse. After reading those messages I got nervous and sold the stock. Unfortunately for me, the next 4 years proved to be an incredible time to own a home and the stock as i watched TOL and HOV go up in value both by almost 1000%.

I decided to revist those message boards the other day and got a huge kick out of how almost erriley similar those messages that back then scared me out of owning the stock are in 2001 about the housing bubble that exists and that everyone will be running for the exits, and the messages i read today in 2006. Here is a link to those message boards so that you can see what i am talking about.

Now i am not discrediting either sides arguments it is just appropriate for those doom sayers to step back, take a deep breath and observe how strickingly similar their arguments in 2001 were to today.


TOLL BROTHERS STOCK MESSAGE BOARD 2000-2002 with word bubble

http://betasearch.messages.yahoo.com/ ... Month=9&eDay=1&eYear=2002


HOVNANIAN STOCK MESSAGE BOARD 2001-2002 with word bubble

http://betasearch.messages.yahoo.com/ ... Month=9&eDay=1&eYear=2002

Posted on: 2006/9/16 21:38
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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whook wrote:
what are the heights like? better or worse than the neighborhood the beacon is in


A lot better than where the Beacon is

Posted on: 2006/9/16 15:47
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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what are the heights like? better or worse than the neighborhood the beacon is in

Posted on: 2006/9/16 15:09
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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The real estate market in the UK was twice as hot as ours in the last 5 years - it took a dip - but now that their fed cut rates it's coming back.

http://www.businessweek.com/print/glo ... 006/gb20060516_070520.htm

Posted on: 2006/7/14 2:33
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

JoyOfSound wrote:
i checked out gull's cove online and spoke with their realtor.

you can buy a condo at pre-construction for 10% (of $380k for a 1-bedroom; $38,000), and not pay any mortgage or taxes until the unit is occupiable, which would be fall of 2007.

for flipping purposes, it seems that by the fall of 2007, the same unit could be worth maybe 100k MORE than the original purchase price.

it seems like a good investment to just flip the property, but i've never done such a large investment (i live in a unit i bought 2 years ago in journal square).

anyone have any experience with flipping condos? i was really considering buying one at gull's cove.

also, the realtor said it's four blocks from grove street path, though the original post said it was too far from the PATH....


Well, if it sounds too good to be true....

Just have a plan B in case it's not worth more than you paid, and a plan C in case it's worth less. In Florida the prebuild condo market was resembling the tech stocks of the late 90's, there was even an exchange for flipping still prebuit, then it went fizz recently.


The flipping exchange is still there....

http://www.condoflip.com/

"Bubbles are for bathtubs!".....

Posted on: 2006/7/13 22:18
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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JoyOfSound wrote:
i checked out gull's cove online and spoke with their realtor.

you can buy a condo at pre-construction for 10% (of $380k for a 1-bedroom; $38,000), and not pay any mortgage or taxes until the unit is occupiable, which would be fall of 2007.

for flipping purposes, it seems that by the fall of 2007, the same unit could be worth maybe 100k MORE than the original purchase price.

it seems like a good investment to just flip the property, but i've never done such a large investment (i live in a unit i bought 2 years ago in journal square).

anyone have any experience with flipping condos? i was really considering buying one at gull's cove.

also, the realtor said it's four blocks from grove street path, though the original post said it was too far from the PATH....


Well, if it sounds too good to be true....

Just have a plan B in case it's not worth more than you paid, and a plan C in case it's worth less. In Florida the prebuild condo market was resembling the tech stocks of the late 90's, there was even an exchange for flipping still prebuit, then it went fizz recently.

Posted on: 2006/7/13 21:57
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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i checked out gull's cove online and spoke with their realtor.

you can buy a condo at pre-construction for 10% (of $380k for a 1-bedroom; $38,000), and not pay any mortgage or taxes until the unit is occupiable, which would be fall of 2007.

for flipping purposes, it seems that by the fall of 2007, the same unit could be worth maybe 100k MORE than the original purchase price.

it seems like a good investment to just flip the property, but i've never done such a large investment (i live in a unit i bought 2 years ago in journal square).

anyone have any experience with flipping condos? i was really considering buying one at gull's cove.

also, the realtor said it's four blocks from grove street path, though the original post said it was too far from the PATH....

Posted on: 2006/7/13 21:24
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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Yikes!! Looks like "The Donald" is having some second thoughts about the JC condo market.

http://www.nj.com/search/index.ssf?/b ... 0.xml?jjournal?njc&coll=3

Posted on: 2006/7/10 19:53
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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alb wrote:


You're talking about Class A (or whatever it's called in residential) apartments, right? I think there are a lot of what I'd call Class B apartments (sort of frowzy, no rats, little or no gunfire) for less than $1,500 per month.


That's my apartment! Spacious 2 bedroom with lots of light, vintage kitchen, elegant sloping floors. Walking distance to PATH, chicken carry-outs, trendy steakhouse/lounges.

We've only heard gunfire twice in eight months, and one of them was just an off-duty cop drunkenly missing someone.

Posted on: 2006/7/10 19:49
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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20% drop in a year is not realistic unless something catastrophic happens. It's pretty much certain the market is going for a soft landing. Most likely the prices will continue to flatline in the next year then drop slowly over the next 5 years. And the rates right now are still very low compare to historic values.

Another point is new inventory doesnt ALWAYS mean lower prices. I found in many cases, a luxury building like the new trump condo will actually RAISE property value in the surrounding areas. (Although in today's market, it probably wont have much impact either way).

wibbit
ps i stopped reading anything with nickl on it a long time ago. why are you guys still wasting time with him?

Quote:

drgoogle wrote:
Hello,

In the last week or so, I have been to sales offices and received prices for remaining units at these new construction buildings:

A - $600-$800/sqft (very nice building but overpriced)
Fulton's Landing - $550/sqft (terrible quality, poor layout)
Gulls Cove - $500-550/sqft (views wont last, far from PATH)
Montgomery Greene - $580/sqft (great finishes)
Waldo Lofts - $500/sqft (about to be engulfed by Liberty Harbor)
The Beacon - $465 - $500/sqft (location is in the projects)
Gove Point - $690/sqft (price point is ridiculous, renters comon!)
Schroeder Lofts - $475/sqft (too far from Path)

Most buildings are between 45-75% sold. I can report to everybody prices were $40-$100/sqft cheaper only 4 months ago, as most of these buildings instituted prices increases in just the last 3 months. These price increases exist despite agents getting desperate to sell the units that are remaining. I personally witnessed developers negotiating on upgrades, financing, and yes even price. There is CLEARLY a slowdown underway. With current prices not reflecting this slowdown and interest rates at 4 year high, I have to conclude that this is a TERRIBLE time to buy a condo in JC. I wanted to buy a condo very badly, and had saved up $100,000 to do so this year. BUT with my analysis, I have decided to calm my excitement and wait for prices to reflect the rising inventories and lack of demand. I see prices coming in at 20% lower in the next 12 months and that Trump's new 1000 units will only put more downward pressure on others prices as his units will not sellout.

Thoughts anybody?

Posted on: 2006/7/10 18:05
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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JSalt wrote:

Yes, but you see there's this word in the name of our city that reflects the state it's located in. Kind of a mental barrier for certain people who think they are too good to live anywhere but NYC. Now, if we change our name to Brooklyn Heights West, we might have a few more takers.


Don't give anybody any ideas.

On an unrelated note, I heard that you can't touch third-floor walk-up studio apartments in Greenville for under $3000 a month. I think I heard it from a guy called Nick something.

Posted on: 2006/7/10 18:00
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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NickL wrote:
This is not the time to buy. At todays prices, you need to make in the low six figures to be able to afford to buy anything in any part of Jersey City at todays prices.

The cheapest part of Jersey City (and probably Hudson County as a whole) is in the Heights, Journal Square & Greenville where your average one bedroom 650 square foot condo (Huge & Loftlike by NYC standards) starts in the Mid 300'Ks and HOA fees are another $200 a month or so.

What do need to make to be able to afford (and qualify under any lending scenario with less than 50% cash down)?? to buy in any of the buildings that the OP listed in the first thread?? Not everyone is going to pay $3,000 - $5,000 a month in total PITI (including maintenance) to live in Jersey City after putting the required 20% down as required by these developers.

Actually it makes more sense to rent BUT rents are soaring as well and my observation by looking at the ads and also by driving around and taking a walk in the Heights & Downtown is that there is significantly less rental inventory available than last year and you can't touch a one bedroom anywhere in the county for less than $1,500 a month in rent, but still it is about $1,000 a month LESS than buying and you don't need to put down 20% + another 7% of the loan in closing costs.


The Heights is not in the 300s yet, unless you are buying Bakery Lofts. There are still deals up here.

However, one point made which I think most people neglect: down payment is everything. For people (like us) who could barely squeeze the 10%, buying is not always the win-win everyone makes it out to be. With all the taxes, PMI (although we did negotiate not having that slapped on), maintenence, etc., owning can be pretty pricey.

Tax write offs can also be overrated. Standard deductions are sometimes just shy of tax and mortgage interest deductions, unless you've got other stuff to write off.

Posted on: 2006/7/10 17:00
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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NickL,

I truly don't understand why you would assert what you're asserting here regarding real estate in Jersey City when it just isn't true.

The prices that you've indicated as the norm for condos in the Heights, Journal Square & Greenville are not the standard/norm.

As for it being "not the time to buy"...could you tell us all when it will be the time to buy? According to your posting, it doesn't sound like a good time to rent either.
Regarding "today's" prices, will tomorrow's be better?

Here are a few points I'd like to make before ending my posting:

1. Your numbers are way off regarding pricing for the most part.

2. Your numbers regarding what is required to attain a mortgage (a conventional...not exotic mortgage) are wrong.

3. Neither I, nor anyone I know, has paid the amount of closing costs that you suggest one will need.

Lastly: why in the WORLD would someone who lives in Queens continually obsess over, and pretend to be a guru regarding, real estate in Jersey City? I've lived in this city my entire life and have bought three times and sold twice, and I truly don't know what tomorrow's market will bring.

Newsflash: neither do you.

Posted on: 2006/7/10 16:57
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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NickL wrote:
that there is significantly less rental inventory available than last year and you can't touch a one bedroom anywhere in the county for less than $1,500 a month in rent,


You're talking about Class A (or whatever it's called in residential) apartments, right? I think there are a lot of what I'd call Class B apartments (sort of frowzy, no rats, little or no gunfire) for less than $1,500 per month.

So, if someone who's reading this thread thinks you need to pay $1,500 for a crummy 1-bedroom apartment with a crumbling ceiling on a scary street: I really don't think it's that bad. Just accept that you won't end up living in the Marbella.

Posted on: 2006/7/10 14:03
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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NNJR wrote:
I personally think people are kidding themselves if they think there will be a 20% decline in a year from now. bookmark this thread, won't happen.


Although, given that people have gotten used to 20% annual increases in prices, it might seem to some owners as if prices had fallen 20% even if prices merely increase, say, 2 percent rather than 20%.

Posted on: 2006/7/10 13:57
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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You're STILL in Queens right? Dude, get on your meds, your perception of our reality is pretty wild.


Hey Brewster.....good call on NickL. About a year ago, I was unloading one of my Ogden Avenue rental properties at a very reasonable starting price point (already gut-renovated, by the way), and I corresponded privately with this kid endlessly. For all of time he spends venting about how expensive and prohibitive the market is here, one wonders why he's still looking here.

For what little it's worth, I got my asking price, and the other condo in the building that was virtual twin of mine sold for 15% more only nine months later. Another great JC investment that NickL let pass by because he'd rather vent.

Sometimes you just can't help these people.

Posted on: 2006/7/10 2:44
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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Yes, but you see there's this word in the name of our city that reflects the state it's located in. Kind of a mental barrier for certain people who think they are too good to live anywhere but NYC. Now, if we change our name to Brooklyn Heights West, we might have a few more takers.



I agree with you. That is why you, me and a whole lot of us live here. We are not turned off by the 6 letter word. I don't believe that word and a small distance constitutes a ~$500/sqft difference.

Posted on: 2006/7/10 0:40
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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NNJR wrote:
Gulls Cove looks nice, doesn't look far from the grove street path. I think those prices are pretty reasonable considering that just over the water prices are more than 2x the price.


Yes, but you see there's this word in the name of our city that reflects the state it's located in. Kind of a mental barrier for certain people who think they are too good to live anywhere but NYC. Now, if we change our name to Brooklyn Heights West, we might have a few more takers.

Posted on: 2006/7/9 17:51
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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NickL wrote:
This is not the time to buy. At todays prices, you need to make in the low six figures to be able to afford to buy anything in any part of Jersey City at todays prices.


You're STILL in Queens right? Dude, get on your meds, your perception of our reality is pretty wild. Craigslist isn't all there is to JC realty. whatever you're looking at is a small segment of the overall market.

I'm not disagreeing about the timing of the market, just your claims about sales and rentals.

Posted on: 2006/7/9 4:55
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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This is not the time to buy. At todays prices, you need to make in the low six figures to be able to afford to buy anything in any part of Jersey City at todays prices.

The cheapest part of Jersey City (and probably Hudson County as a whole) is in the Heights, Journal Square & Greenville where your average one bedroom 650 square foot condo (Huge & Loftlike by NYC standards) starts in the Mid 300'Ks and HOA fees are another $200 a month or so.

What do need to make to be able to afford (and qualify under any lending scenario with less than 50% cash down)?? to buy in any of the buildings that the OP listed in the first thread?? Not everyone is going to pay $3,000 - $5,000 a month in total PITI (including maintenance) to live in Jersey City after putting the required 20% down as required by these developers.

Actually it makes more sense to rent BUT rents are soaring as well and my observation by looking at the ads and also by driving around and taking a walk in the Heights & Downtown is that there is significantly less rental inventory available than last year and you can't touch a one bedroom anywhere in the county for less than $1,500 a month in rent, but still it is about $1,000 a month LESS than buying and you don't need to put down 20% + another 7% of the loan in closing costs.

Posted on: 2006/7/9 4:00
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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badgirl wrote:
My observations: there is a concerted effort on the part of some brokers to maintain a certain (extremely high)level of prices. These are the properties that languish...listed for a long time, and draw the most complaints and criticism...

Other brokers smartly price to attract a sale.

(as a seller, I've learned) if you are a buyer, place a bid. WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE...???

If you're a seller, think of your equity.

unuf said...R/E is getting tedious... can't wait til it drops off the radar screen...


Actually, it's unlikely its the brokers rather than reality impaired sellers holding the price high. As described in Freakonomics, a broker has a huge incentive to make a deal fast for a lower price rather than show a property a zillion times. Their time is money. A 5% difference on a $500K place will only change their take by $750, assuming they're splitting it with a buyers broker. If they have to show it many more times to get that extra 5%, they're losing other sales.

Basically, brokers will always underprice if they can, to get a quick buck.

Posted on: 2006/7/9 2:14
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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My observations: MUTUAL BENEFIT RULES...!!!

there is a concerted effort on the part of some brokers to maintain a certain (extremely high)level of prices. These are the properties that languish...listed for a long time, and draw the most complaints and criticism...

Other brokers smartly price to attract a sale...GOOD FOR BOTH B & S...

(as a seller, I've learned) if you are a buyer, if you like the place than put in a MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL BID!!!WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE...???

If you're a seller, think of your profit margin (and cut someone a break...) PX AT A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL PRICE.

IT'LL KEEP THE MARKET FLUID...

enuf said...R/E is getting tedious...can't wait til it drops off the radar screen...

whatta u think...?

Posted on: 2006/7/9 1:55
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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Quote:

drgoogle wrote:
Schroeder Lofts - $475/sqft (too far from Path)


Schroeder Lofts is on 10th street which really is only about a 10 minute walk to the Newport Path station. I walk to that area every day - you can cut through Newport mall to get to the Path.

Posted on: 2006/7/8 15:07
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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Gulls Cove looks nice, doesn't look far from the grove street path. I think those prices are pretty reasonable considering that just over the water prices are more than 2x the price.

I personally think people are kidding themselves if they think there will be a 20% decline in a year from now. bookmark this thread, won't happen.

Posted on: 2006/7/8 13:59
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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My thoughts are that condos are for saps. Just like leasing a car. Ya got 100g's to put down. Buy a house and really own the property. As far as timing the market goes, you might be dead by the time it's in your favor. Life ain't all $$$, just do what ya gotta do. But never pay retail.

Posted on: 2006/7/8 5:34
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Re: Condo Shopping Observations
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(cynical bd wonders if drgoogle is a landlord)

In all seriousness though, I had never been happy about renting a living space- until I moved down here and started to see where this market is going.

Now, I figure even if my monthly rent is higher than it should be, I am not in an overpriced mortgage for an overpriced property in a community with arbitrary zoning and less than responsive government.

Spend twenty minutes, half an hour with SimCity building and financing the way JC has built and see where it gets you.

Incidentally, does anyone know when Grove Pointe changed market approach? They were initially supposed to be all rentals from what I recall...

Posted on: 2006/7/8 5:27
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