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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
#1
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Excerpt from WSJ commentary today:

The report by Credit Suisse estimates mortgage originations could drop 21% during the next year or two because of tighter credit standards. Coupled with high inventories of unsold homes and the additional supply likely from distressed sellers, this drop in demand could produce an unprecedented nationwide decline in home prices.

Merrill Lynch estimates prices could drop as much as 10% this year. A price drop of this magnitude would lead to a vicious cycle in the housing market and pose a major risk to economic growth. And, of course, it would create a raging political firestorm.
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And it's a Great Time to Buy a House, as any Realtor(R) will tell you.
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Posted on: 2007/3/21 20:40
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
#2
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The last downturn went from roughly 1988 to 1996 and there were a number of Jersey City residential projects famously underwater.

To state the obvious, real estate investors and developers are more stupid and corrupt than the average business person. Brokers are even worse. This may heighten cyclicality.

The underlying economic fundamentals in the downtown JC market haven't changed much at all in recent years, and they're only likely to slowly deteriorate along with those of downtown Manhattan.

Another obvious point: Jersey City is mostly a rat-hole.

Posted on: 2007/3/6 1:56
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