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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#61
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
The Najjar Group mails out JC/Hoboken summaries of MLS data, which indicates that for all of 2014, 935 condos were listed and 624 sold.


Is this just for zipcode 07302? Or all of Jersey City? Because this thread has centered around zipcode 07302, and those 1,350 units are being (or planned to be) built in zipcode 07302.

Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
IIRC the Gannon is only 16 units, and the general agreement here is that the units weren't optimally designed, and they're asking too much. It's not a good bellwether.


Just FYI - the Gannon has 25 units.

Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
You also don't recognize that in many cases, adding units will make an area more desirable. E.g. right now, JSQ is not a particularly hot real estate market, but once a big luxury tower opens, the people who live there will want fancy markets and shops and other amenities. This gentrifies the neighborhood, which in turn increases interest and demand.


Just because property values in JC went up considerably after the first sprouts of gentrification blossomed doesn't mean that they'll continue on an upward linear or exponential trajectory of price growth. For one thing (as others have already mentioned), prices may already have the value of many years of future gentrification factored into them. For another, alot of residents liked the JC of 2008, where there was a "comfortable" number of nice new buildings all over downtown, meaning that there were quite a few new buildings but roads, PATH stations (with the exception of Newport), and parks weren't overcrowded. I think it's safe to say that people generally like neighborhoods where they can get to know others more than they like overcrowding. If you look at Manhattan, the priciest neighborhoods aren't the most crowded ones lol (with the exception of billionaire's row perhaps, but those new buildings are selling for their one-of-a-kind views of Central Park).

Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
I'm fairly confident JC's real estate market will do just fine in the long term, even with all the units coming on the market. At worst, prices will flatten for a few years.


I agree with you on this. But that doesn't mean prices right now accurately reflect current value and aren't going to drop. For the long-term, however, most of the key fundamental factors that encouraged people to flee to the suburbs are becoming a thing of the past (smog, a high rate of violent crime, abandoned graffiti-covered buildings, an abundance of cheap land in suburbs close to NYC). And for these reasons I agree that yes, JC real estate will do fine in the long term (but not in the short-term for reasons already mentioned many times).

Posted on: 2015/5/7 0:20
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#62
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Quote:

07310 wrote:
Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:


Does anyone know how many condos were sold in downtown in the first quarter of 2015?


You can look it up on Zillow. There's a pull-down menu that will list "Recently Sold"


Is that info pulled from public records? Were there really only 14 sales downtown in the past 30 days? (remember this is peak season) If that's true, I'm not sure how 1,350 additional new condos are going to sell in just 2 years...I know there are supply constraints right now that are distorting sales figures, but I don't see that ending well if the Toll and 99 Hudson towers do in fact break ground in the coming months.

Posted on: 2015/5/6 1:28
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#63
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:

The Oakman will not be ready for move ins until December 2016, so I doubt they will start selling units any time soon. They will start previewing units for current residents of the sister property (The ArtHouse JC) in the coming weeks and months.

Construction of The Oakman building structure should conclude by the end of July. They will then work on the interiors.


I just realized that my last post was deleted....so I'll repeat what it said:

The Oakman will be launching sales shortly (actually just got an email today asking me to contact the Oakman Sales Office to learn more about a 'pre-construction opportunity'...which I'm assuming includes pricing). Between the Gannon, the Oakman, 99 Hudson, and Toll Brothers' first condo tower (expected to break ground Q4 2015 and launch sales about 14 months from now), there will be (roughly) 1,350 new condo units added to the downtown Jersey City condo market.

Does anyone know how many condos were sold in downtown in the first quarter of 2015?


Posted on: 2015/5/6 0:37
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#64
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

Bubble_Tea wrote:
Quote:

I think they *know* there is a dearth of condo options in DTJC and hoping to capitalize on that.


Yes--developers are indeed aware of the law of supply and demand.


Ha! Of course, that was an overly obvious statement. What I was trying to convey is that the pricing is completely out of line because they KNOW that they are (essentially) the only game in town for at least another year in the segment of new construction, for sale condos. I really hope more options come online in the next year or two, but looking at the list of proposed developments, it seems like there is nothing other than The Oakman in DTJC proper. Over in Newport, there is The Laguna.


The Oakman has had a teaser page up for at least a month now and will probably be putting units up for sale within the next month or two. The first Toll Brothers condo building is supposed to break ground by Q4 of this year and put its units up for sale about 14 months from now.

Not sure how many units they'll be releasing in each sales "phase", but altogether the first Toll Brothers building, the Oakman, and 99 Hudson will add about 1,350 +/- new condos to the for-sale condo market downtown. And another 450 +/- are planned for the second Toll condo building.

Anyone know how many condos sold downtown in the first quarter of this year?

Posted on: 2015/5/5 2:20
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#65
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I'm not going to argue anymore, I've pointed out some figures but haven't seen any others do the same. I am convinced that there will be a market correction by late 2016, and as I've said before, time will tell.

Anyone have sales figures for the Gannon??

Wait until the Oakman starts sales...or maybe they'll just decide to go rental too and further add to that tidal wave of rental units coming online.

Also btw - although this is only loosely related since it's about a Gold Coast building where many of the units were being snatched up by foreign investors, the Avenue collection in Weehawken's sales are apparently struggling, with the building complete and many units still unsold. Starting prices appear to have dropped from $1.1 million to $900k (down ~20%).

Posted on: 2015/5/3 4:44
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#66
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Quotes of the day, from Barbara Corcoran, founder and owner of one of the most prestigious real estate firms in New York City:

NYC real estate may be in "a new bubble right now"
The current market "is fueled by foreigners more than anyone else".

As anyone who knows anything about area real estate knows, the NJ Gold Coast market is very heavily dependent on a trickle-down effect from NYC transplants. Many people who sell homes in Manhattan move to Brooklyn. And many people who sell homes in Brooklyn move to Jersey City. If I had to guess, I'd expect that a majority of the new condos sold in waterfront buildings over the last decade were either sold to NYC transplants (moving as a direct or indirect result of foreign investor purchases in NYC) or sold directly to foreign investors.

Link to interview: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/ ... w-bubble-barbara-corcoran

In any case, my prediction is that around Q3 2016 we start to see prices erode in downtown JC. Time shall tell.

Posted on: 2015/5/2 6:37
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#67
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Here's a question: how many condo units (or what percentage) downtown are investor-owned?

Here's another: How many that are investor-held were purchased in 2006-2008? or within the last two years?

I think it's important to keep in mind that the combination of low interest rates, tax abatements from the city, and massive NJ EDA credits from the state will allow the developers of many of the large buildings currently under construction to drop net effective rents quite significantly while still being able to make a decent profit.

Posted on: 2015/5/1 2:47
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#68
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Quote:

JcDevil wrote:

Think of it this way: there are condos in freaking Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy that are going for $900-1000/sqft. And I'm not even talking about super-luxury buildings, here. If you don't think that DTJC will get at least there (unless there's a huge economic crash or something of that nature), you're just not paying attention.

Is anyone saying that you're going to see $2500/sqft average sales like in much of Manhattan anytime soon? Of course not. But there's a long way to go until then.


....okay, and there are newer-construction 4 bedroom homes in areas with much better schools and much lower crime than Jersey City has, selling for ~$200 per square foot within an hour's commute of Manhattan. The prices in Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy are what you call irrational exuberance (based on pure speculation).

Posted on: 2015/4/30 5:49
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#69
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Quote:

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.


You are absolutely correct about prices being artificially inflated right now. There are really 3 main factors that will deflate them (not to beat a dead horse...): 1. increased inventory from investors divesting of units earning a poor return due to competition with new rental buildings; 2. reduced demand from capital heading for real estate opportunities overseas instead of here due to a strong dollar; 3. rising interest rates

As for new condo construction - there are several small condo buildings along the Newark Avenue corridor under construction already, along with two larger ones in the Grove Street PATH station area (the Gannon, which has 25 units and is basically complete; and the Oakman with 159 units and delivery projected for late 2016). Toll Brothers (as of Q1 of this year) is expecting to break ground on 501 units in the fourth quarter of this year for delivery in Q4 2017.

In response to what brewster wrote earlier, yes the market is being driven right now by market speculation (call it irrational exuberance). But investing 101 tells us never to buy an asset when its price is at a record high (unless you want to fail). I don't think investors who paid near top dollar for JC real estate are dumb enough to settle for returns lower than a bank account would yield for several years while assuming all the risk that you wouldn't have with the bank account. They'd be better off selling at a loss and putting the money into something (such as European real estate) that has fallen significantly from peak pricing.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 4:06

Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/4/29 4:24:21
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/4/29 4:25:58
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/4/29 4:28:45
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#70
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:
When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.


LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.

Posted on: 2015/4/28 22:50
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#71
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To determine whether there is a bubble at this specific point in Jersey City history, you really need to know how many CONDO units are owned by investors. I believe it's a fairly high percentage from what I've read & heard.

There were an average of 150 rental units added to the downtown market per year from 2008 through 2013. From mid-2015 to mid-2016, there will be that many units added, on average, every 2 weeks.

When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units. Many investors who own condos that they are renting out may begin to lose money on their properties due to competition from a drop in net effective rents at large rental buildings, and this may prompt them to sell. This could potentially cause a flood of investor-owned condos to come onto the for-sale market, and the increased competition may burst the bubble.

Posted on: 2015/4/28 0:50

Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/4/28 1:06:34
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Re: $141M residential tower planned for Jersey City waterfront; developer seeking tax abatement
#72
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Does a single delivery of building materials count as a 'job'? How did they come up with 1,000 jobs for this project? I've never seen more than about 50 or so construction workers at a site at any given point in time on any of the largest construction projects.

Posted on: 2015/4/10 1:05
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Re: Multiple Fights at Pershing Field Carnival - JJ
#73
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Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
I'm sure there's absolutely no connection between the "juveniles" engaged in massive fighting here, and the 75-100 "teens" who were brawling with each other at Journal Square last week.

Other than the fact that barely anyone got arrested. Nope, nothing to see here.


They were all just having some good old fashioned fun. What's wrong with adding a little extra excitement to the family fun atmosphere?

Posted on: 2015/4/8 23:02
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Re: Sohowest neighborhood
#74
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Quote:

caj11 wrote:
Quote:

07310 wrote:
The only business in the Taint worth mentioning is the 14th Street Garden Center.


Somehow, the developers of this project think their apartment building(s) is in the same neighborhoods of several restaurants in Hoboken, several more restaurants in Manhattan, Amelia's, Park & Sixth, Marco & Pepe and so on. Amazing! I didn't know Hoboken, Manhattan and Jersey City were all in the same neighborhood.

The "shopping" in the neighborhood they tout is even more laughable. Oooh! Right by Best Buy, Pier 1, Target and Home Depot. Just a little further to Staples and Modells. Woohoo! Sign me up.


You forgot to mention drug dealing businesses in Holland Gardens. The same developer is putting up over 400 more units now DIRECTLY across the street from the Holland Gardens public housing projects. Literally about 50 ft away. How are they going to advertise those units as "Luxury"? lolol

Posted on: 2015/4/8 22:58
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Re: 75 to 100 Teens Fight Today in Journal Square - JJ
#75
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What a perfect location to build a brand new 53-story luxury apartment tower! Maybe the street brawls can be pitched as a neighborhood amenity that the yuppies and hipsters can partake in.

Posted on: 2015/3/28 3:54
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Re: The Gannon, on First Street
#76
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Does anyone know what's being built across the street from the Gannon? Rental apartments or is this another new condo building? Rather small - two lots wide.

Posted on: 2015/3/17 4:23
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Re: Anybody know the GRM (price/yearly rent) of typical Downtown condos?
#77
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I totally agree with you. Besides, prices are artificially high right now downtown because there have been so few units on the market. Not sure exactly who's been buying them, but perhaps alot of the pricier ones have gone to uninformed overseas investors who weren't aware of the impending surge of rentals that will be flooding the market between Spring of this year and Spring of next year. That's going to put downward pressure on rents for sure and make it difficult to carry investment condos as rentals at the prices that are being asked.

Posted on: 2015/2/19 1:37
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Re: Anybody know the GRM (price/yearly rent) of typical Downtown condos?
#78
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If you (or your friend) are looking to buy, Harrison might be a great bet - it's pretty much the last frontier on the PATH system. There's so much empty land around the PATH station that the entire thing has been master-planned. There are three completely new neighborhoods already taking shape and it's looking phenomenal so far (low-density, urban like Hoboken). It's a hard market to tap into right now (seems like everyone's waiting for prices to pop) but you might find a deal here or there still.

Posted on: 2015/2/18 1:09
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Re: What's going there?
#79
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Quote:

jcman420 wrote:
What about the empty lot near Van Vorst St. and Sussex St.? Behind St. Peter's Prep's football field. They knocked down an old warehouse there and completely flattened out the lot at least a year or two ago. Since then, nothing.


That's the Madox II site, a Fields Development project. They've had to do environmental cleanup but other than that I'm not sure what the hold-up may be.

Posted on: 2014/6/11 1:26
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Re: New tax break for Hyatt Hotel
#80
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Is that really the best they could do for a waterfront site that's going to represent Jersey City in the eyes of people in Manhattan? What a piece of garbage...between that and URL Harborside the waterfront is beginning to become a collection of terrible architecture. Why can't the JC waterfront get something at least somewhat vibrant and/or imaginative? Ugh.

Posted on: 2014/6/10 4:45
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Re: PRESERVATION OF POWERHOUSE TO BEGIN
#81
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All joking aside, I can tell you as someone who has been involved with this project that there will be a roughly 80' tall building on the triangular plot of land between Athena and Portofino. The current plans call for the building to be clad in a small-gauge mesh that will have vertical ribs in it, contemporary look but still industrial. The roof will be a green roof and the building itself will contain all of the gear that will replace the equipment currently sitting next to the powerhouse on Washington Street. That gear will be taken down to make way for a pedestrian plaza. I believe construction is supposed to start in 2015.

Posted on: 2014/5/16 23:24
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Re: Fields Development Reports Waldo Lofts Now 90% Sold in Jersey City's Powerhouse Arts District
#82
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I'll suggest that whoever wants to agree to disagree with me for now do so (as no one here has a crystal ball, including myself), and perhaps we can revisit this issue in 6-12 months when the situation plays out.

...and I'll agree with FAB. It's obvious that realtors are having a bit of a tough year so far due to the lack of inventory being put on the market.

Posted on: 2014/4/2 3:29
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Re: Fields Development Reports Waldo Lofts Now 90% Sold in Jersey City's Powerhouse Arts District
#83
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-I didn't state that foreign investors are no longer buying in NYC. First of all, I was talking about Manhattan specifically, second, I was suggesting that the number of foreign investors in the Manhattan condo market has dropped substantially, which it has.
-Prices ARE up in 07302 y-o-y, but that's because there's virtually nothing for sale by historical standards. This situation can only last so long. If you want to see sales volume numbers, look at Trulia, RealtyTrac, or Property Shark (which you need a subscription to). All show y-o-y drops in total sales volume (although they don't all show the same numbers).
-If you want to see a stalled project, go to the intersection of Morgan & Greene streets (right next to Trump Plaza). There you'll see two excavators sitting idle with no signs of excavation for a 69-story tower that had a highly-publicized "ground breaking" on January 13th (the ground breaking itself was delayed by 15 months).
-Lower interest rates absolutely DO mean developers can afford to have alot of vacant units. Ironstate Development virtually cut the interest rates on a slew of buildings in Hoboken & Jersey City in half by refinancing them. These are loans of $50 to $150 million. You can do the math (interest savings of about 3.5% with the refi). Take the result of 0.035*150 million and divide that by 12 to get monthly savings. Then take that number and divide it by average monthly rent of around $2700 to get number of units that can stay vacant while maintaining profit.
-Brooklyn sales: "Home Sales in Brooklyn Plunge": http://therealdeal.com/blog/2014/03/2 ... lyn-plunge-propertyshark/

Posted on: 2014/3/31 3:44
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Re: Fields Development Reports Waldo Lofts Now 90% Sold in Jersey City's Powerhouse Arts District
#84
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Many people who moved across the Hudson from Manhattan in the 2000's were people who had sold condo/co-op units in Manhattan and were looking for more space at a lower price. Prices actually reached record-highs in Manhattan over the past few years as foreign investors parked their money in Manhattan real estate. That factor started to disappear toward the end of 2013 as foreign markets began to stabilize, and now foreign investors are putting their money elsewhere (namely, outside the U.S.). This means less buyers in the pool of potential buyers of property in places like Brooklyn and Jersey City (since unit owners in Manhattan are starting to see a less desirable selling market than they did a year ago). Couple this with thousands of units starting to flood the market toward mid-2014 (and as I mentioned below, many years to come) and other emerging markets such as Journal Square, Harrison, and downtown Newark diverting investment from downtown JC, and you have alot of elements that will reduce sales numbers in zipcode 07302. Younger couples and single folks simply can't afford the prices being asked for downtown JC condos; many married people in their late 30's/early 40's who can afford to buy at current asking prices want to move to the suburbs because JC's schools are terrible.

The coming real estate dip in downtown JC is bad enough that even projects that are heavily subsidized and have already "broken ground", such as URL Harborside, are stalled. Banks know that there's already too much product and not enough demand to swallow it coming online. Developers rushed to get shovels in the ground to lock in very long-term, record-low interest rates. The low interest rates meant they could have high vacancy rates in their new buildings for a few years and not worry about their balance sheets.

Numbers simply won't work for investors at the prices being asked for condos after a dip in rents takes place, hence why investor interest is plummeting (investors have made up a significant percentage of downtown buyers over the last few years FYI).

More infill/amenities might draw more residents to downtown, but those new residents will overwhelmingly be renting, not buying.

btw - there's been alot of chatter over the past two months about how sales in Brooklyn have fallen off a cliff too.

Posted on: 2014/3/31 2:15
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Re: Fields Development Reports Waldo Lofts Now 90% Sold in Jersey City's Powerhouse Arts District
#85
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http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/07302-Jersey_City/

Sure, there are fewer units being posted for sale, and that is part of the problem. But investor purchases are way way down due to the sharp increase in prices and the fact that there are literally thousands of rental units about to come online. The ROI on rental units in downtown JC is down and is expected to continue to decline persistently over the coming years as these new units come to market.

Posted on: 2014/3/30 17:30
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Re: Fields Development Reports Waldo Lofts Now 90% Sold in Jersey City's Powerhouse Arts District
#86
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I hate to point this out to you, but sales are down 63% y-o-y in downtown right now. Following that should be a drop in prices. Prices went up way too fast and now is not the time to buy...

Posted on: 2014/3/30 0:49
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Re: 40-story tower planned for site of old JJ office (prj #3)
#87
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Looks very late 60's / early 70's architecture..



But at least it fits in really well with the Port Authority office tower above the PATH station! lol

Posted on: 2014/3/15 3:06
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Re: Jersey City to sue Port Authority for $400 million
#88
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Fulop made JC look like a brat who doesn't want to follow the rules at school saying to his teacher that he's going to tell Daddy if the teacher doesn't let him do whatever he wants to do. If the city agreed to the lower taxes, tough sh!t, that's the way the real world works. If there are legal agreements in place, that's an unfortunate loss for the city but it's what the city agreed to, whether the current administration likes it or not.

Besides, raising taxes on PA properties is just going to translate into higher fares for those who ride the PATH and/or an extended delay in the expansion of Grove Street station (among other things).

Posted on: 2014/2/19 3:43
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Re: 400 Unit Development in Hamilton Park
#89
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Just saw the renderings, and all I'm going to say is that building makes Grove Pointe look like a royal palace. Looks very industrial...sort of like one of the uglier warehouses that was torn down over the past decades. But maybe that's precisely what they were going for (?)

Posted on: 2014/1/15 5:45
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Re: Harborside Development Receives $33 Million Tax Credit
#90
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I'm praying to God that if they do build that first building, they stop there. This design looks like an enormous stack of dirty garbage piled way high. Is this really the best thing they could come up with for their $33 million tax credit? Ugh. Here comes the end of Jersey City's skyline...

Posted on: 2014/1/10 7:03
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