jcwalkingman wrote:
-I didn't state that foreign investors are no longer buying in NYC. First of all, I was talking about Manhattan specifically, second, I was suggesting that the number of foreign investors in the Manhattan condo market has dropped substantially, which it has.
-Prices ARE up in 07302 y-o-y, but that's because there's virtually nothing for sale by historical standards. This situation can only last so long. If you want to see sales volume numbers, look at Trulia, RealtyTrac, or Property Shark (which you need a subscription to). All show y-o-y drops in total sales volume (although they don't all show the same numbers).
-If you want to see a stalled project, go to the intersection of Morgan & Greene streets (right next to Trump Plaza). There you'll see two excavators sitting idle with no signs of excavation for a 69-story tower that had a highly-publicized "ground breaking" on January 13th (the ground breaking itself was delayed by 15 months).
-Lower interest rates absolutely DO mean developers can afford to have alot of vacant units. Ironstate Development virtually cut the interest rates on a slew of buildings in Hoboken & Jersey City in half by refinancing them. These are loans of $50 to $150 million. You can do the math (interest savings of about 3.5% with the refi). Take the result of 0.035*150 million and divide that by 12 to get monthly savings. Then take that number and divide it by average monthly rent of around $2700 to get number of units that can stay vacant while maintaining profit.
-Brooklyn sales: "Home Sales in Brooklyn Plunge": http://therealdeal.com/blog/2014/03/2 ... lyn-plunge-propertyshark/

jcwalkingman wrote:
Many people who moved across the Hudson from Manhattan in the 2000's were people who had sold condo/co-op units in Manhattan and were looking for more space at a lower price. Prices actually reached record-highs in Manhattan over the past few years as foreign investors parked their money in Manhattan real estate. That factor started to disappear toward the end of 2013 as foreign markets began to stabilize, and now foreign investors are putting their money elsewhere (namely, outside the U.S.). This means less buyers in the pool of potential buyers of property in places like Brooklyn and Jersey City (since unit owners in Manhattan are starting to see a less desirable selling market than they did a year ago). Couple this with thousands of units starting to flood the market toward mid-2014 (and as I mentioned below, many years to come) and other emerging markets such as Journal Square, Harrison, and downtown Newark diverting investment from downtown JC, and you have alot of elements that will reduce sales numbers in zipcode 07302. Younger couples and single folks simply can't afford the prices being asked for downtown JC condos; many married people in their late 30's/early 40's who can afford to buy at current asking prices want to move to the suburbs because JC's schools are terrible.

The coming real estate dip in downtown JC is bad enough that even projects that are heavily subsidized and have already "broken ground", such as URL Harborside, are stalled. Banks know that there's already too much product and not enough demand to swallow it coming online. Developers rushed to get shovels in the ground to lock in very long-term, record-low interest rates. The low interest rates meant they could have high vacancy rates in their new buildings for a few years and not worry about their balance sheets.

Numbers simply won't work for investors at the prices being asked for condos after a dip in rents takes place, hence why investor interest is plummeting (investors have made up a significant percentage of downtown buyers over the last few years FYI).

More infill/amenities might draw more residents to downtown, but those new residents will overwhelmingly be renting, not buying.

btw - there's been alot of chatter over the past two months about how sales in Brooklyn have fallen off a cliff too.

jcwalkingman wrote:
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/07302-Jersey_City/

Sure, there are fewer units being posted for sale, and that is part of the problem. But investor purchases are way way down due to the sharp increase in prices and the fact that there are literally thousands of rental units about to come online. The ROI on rental units in downtown JC is down and is expected to continue to decline persistently over the coming years as these new units come to market.

jcwalkingman wrote:
I hate to point this out to you, but sales are down 63% y-o-y in downtown right now. Following that should be a drop in prices. Prices went up way too fast and now is not the time to buy...

jklm wrote:
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Maise wrote:
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jklm wrote:
I see the Reserved Parking and Zone 4 parking surrounding Trump, A-Condos and 50 Columbus - all fill up at night and over the weekends - after the commuters leave for the day. There are no open spots near the Grove Path station until after 11p.
Trump offers no discount for people who live in the building. A-Condos is private parking. There are four high rises under construction in this area as well - and when they start to fill up, I suspect the parking spaces will continue to disappear.
And new construction on First near Marin - 12 stories - has no parking built for this building so every resident will be entitled to zone 4 permit parking.

I live in 50 Columbus (without a car) and while the while there are cars parking in the spaces on the nights / weekends, I would say than more than 50% of the spots in the area are available on nights / weekends.

18 months from now - when the most recent high rise construction in this area is completed - the spaces will fill up.

It takes a few years to get anything changed within the government - and changing the Permit Parking enforcement hours could take two years. I think the 8a-5p (really 3p) parking restrictions should be extended to later in the evening. - Non-permit cars can still park up to two hours, just extended the hours to, say, 10p.

jklm wrote:
I see the Reserved Parking and Zone 4 parking surrounding Trump, A-Condos and 50 Columbus - all fill up at night and over the weekends - after the commuters leave for the day. There are no open spots near the Grove Path station until after 11p.
Trump offers no discount for people who live in the building. A-Condos is private parking. There are four high rises under construction in this area as well - and when they start to fill up, I suspect the parking spaces will continue to disappear.
And new construction on First near Marin - 12 stories - has no parking built for this building so every resident will be entitled to zone 4 permit parking.

maybeMoving wrote:

The PATH still has plenty of capacity. I take the WTC line at 8am every morning and it isn't even near as crowded as even the least crowded NYC subway lines. I know the trains in the evening back from 33rd can be a little rough and weekends are abysmal but thats on the PA to schedule more weekend service.

corybraiterman wrote:
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Monroe wrote:
Be happy the Shop Rite on Marin is actually pretty good.

Wait a couple of years til they tear it down and put up condos on that lot. It'll be real interesting to see where we should do our grocery shopping then

Bike_Lane wrote:
+2 for iTrans PATH

zimbu1234 wrote:
I use CooCoo. What isn't simple about it? I go from Grove to 33rd every day. When I check it its always on that search, and if I want to reverse it, I just click the reverse route button. It also saves your previous searches.

I used to love http://nynj.net/ but whoever maintains that has not updated it since Sandy altered the PATH schedules.