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Re: You know your neighborhood is gentrifying when...
#31
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Quote:

JerseyCityNj wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

MDM wrote:
The multiple $0.99 stores are slowly replaced with the likes of Dulce de Leche bakery coffee shop.


Palisade is getting strange. Hipster bars and fancy coffee but not one pizza joint from Newark ave to the city line. Still plenty of Spanish food.


What about Pizza Vita on Palisade?


When did that open?? It's not there in street view from 11/17. I'll have to check it out, thanks. I most often go to Marco's, but it's good to have another option.

Posted on: 9/1 15:58
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Re: You know your neighborhood is gentrifying when...
#32
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Quote:

La_Verdad wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:

Yup, that's what tells me we're in a bubble, when you'd have to be insane to buy instead of rent. Would anyone spend more than $10k/mo in mortgage on 7th st? Taxes would be almost 2.2k/mo! Could you actually rent it for >$10k? I doubt it. Most houses DT seem to peak at around $6-7k.


Seems comparable


That's a sample of 1 on a site with few listings. If you use the tools to search Zillow for SFH in 07302 there's 20 hits. 2 are over $9k, by #4 you're down to $7500, by #8 it's down to $5750 and has been listed for 137 days!

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/Jersey-City-NJ-07302/house,mobile,land,townhouse_type/60639_rid/paymentd_sort/40.733665,-74.023691,40.707156,-74.06931_rect/14_zm/

Posted on: 8/31 18:43
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Re: You know your neighborhood is gentrifying when...
#33
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Quote:

hero69 wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

MDM wrote:
Christ... $1.85 million. What is the monthly rent equivalent?


Yup, that's what tells me we're in a bubble, when you'd have to be insane to buy instead of rent. Would anyone spend more than $10k/mo in mortgage on 7th st? Taxes would be almost 2.2k/mo! Could you actually rent it for >$10k? I doubt it. Most houses DT seem to peak at around $6-7k.
what makes you think this is bubble-licious?some people paying #$10K a month for 3-4 bedroom in Manhattan might find this a very good deal.


7th & Monmouth ain't Manhattan by a longshot. Why don't you look and see what houses in HP or VVP are renting for and compare that to what this house would cost per month to own, even after dropping $370k in downpayment.

Posted on: 8/31 13:01
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Re: You know your neighborhood is gentrifying when...
#34
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
The multiple $0.99 stores are slowly replaced with the likes of Dulce de Leche bakery coffee shop.


Palisade is getting strange. Hipster bars and fancy coffee but not one pizza joint from Newark ave to the city line. Still plenty of Spanish food.

Posted on: 8/30 23:06
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Re: You know your neighborhood is gentrifying when...
#35
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The obnoxious loud music from the neighbors is classic rock not salsa or rap.

You see window bars on the curb for pickup! (Today)

That funny smell from next door is the neighbor's industrial sized smoker.


Posted on: 8/30 21:44
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Re: Our Lady of Czestochowa Downtown Sex Abuse...
#36
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Quote:

JCman24 wrote:
It is insanely impressive how Yvonne is wrong about just everything in the world. Amazing.


Well, what's most amazing is how publicly vocal she is with her wrongness. There's plenty of wrong people who simply vote for idiots and fascists. She must prove it online, and in government meetings and newspapers.

Posted on: 8/30 17:12
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Re: You know your neighborhood is gentrifying when...
#37
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Christ... $1.85 million. What is the monthly rent equivalent?


Yup, that's what tells me we're in a bubble, when you'd have to be insane to buy instead of rent. Would anyone spend more than $10k/mo in mortgage on 7th st? Taxes would be almost 2.2k/mo! Could you actually rent it for >$10k? I doubt it. Most houses DT seem to peak at around $6-7k.

Posted on: 8/30 16:30
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Re: You know your neighborhood is gentrifying when...
#38
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Now if the tear-downs would stop being replaced with Bayonne boxes.


I wonder what the land price point for that is. Clearly DT reached it some time ago, there hasn't been a BB built here in a long time. There's some price that the BB developers say "nope", even though they probably could still outbid a nicer project because their construction is so damn cheap.

This is the DT infill: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/323 ... -NJ-07302/162085086_zpid/

Posted on: 8/30 15:15
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Re: Our Lady of Czestochowa Downtown Sex Abuse...
#39
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Why is the church so happy to fall on it's sword about this pedophilia problem rather than just let priests marry and have families like most other religion's clergy? Then you would get NORMAL people into the clergy, as celibacy IS a sexual deviance to begin with! As I understand it, it originated to keep medieval clergy from creating their own priestly dynasties, though it didn't stop the Borgias. Pre 1139 ce celibacy was not required of clergy.

I can't think of a better thing to bring that church into the 21st century than ending celibacy, except allowing women to be priests.

Posted on: 8/29 17:53
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Re: Lost Cat in Hamilton Park
#40
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Quote:

GrovePath wrote:
Happy to hear this! Just wish they would keep Gus inside - outside lives are usually very short for cats - average age is just 3 years. I know there are exceptions - but they are the lucky ones.


You've said this before, and it's still nonsense. Perhaps that's for feral cats, not pets permitted outdoors. Note gus is 14! My cat is 13, and has been going outside his whole life. His buddy who passed last year was around the same age.

Posted on: 8/29 15:26
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Re: Income Sorting
#41
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This is not really hard to parse. Great port cities have always been the most vibrant metropolises on earth, From Rio to Montreal to St Petersburg to Shanghai. There's far fewer great cities inland, and far fewer still if you eliminate river ports like Paris or Berlin.

Inland you find communities built around extraction and refining, whether it's corn or iron. Occasionally the elite of these cities have put serious money into making them livable places with art and culture, like Rochester or Pittsburgh. But mostly they're a place for young, educated people to leave.

The story of why we won't let builders build enough to equalize the housing market is another subject previously discussed.

Posted on: 8/21 22:06
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Re: Vandals Topple Hamilton Park Fountain
#42
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Perhaps this is an opportunity to get a properly sized fountain like in VVP instead of that ridiculous miniature. Somehow the specification was left to the contractor working from an old postcard! So they got the cheapest possible one that looked the same.

Posted on: 8/21 10:22
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#43
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
So, if you exit a real estate market 3+ years before there is a crash, based on a poor predictor (e.g. a few properties whose price is absurd), you may pay a steeper price than exiting shortly after property prices increase by 25% per year.


Problem is, there's no such thing as a perfect predictor, if there were there would never be a crash. People ignore warning signs, say they're poor predictors or "this time it's different" and drive up markets past all rationality, and I'm not just talking about JC RE. It's what happens, going way back to the legendary tulip craze and the Southsea Bubble. Big rewards rarely comes without risk, but people seem to forget that.

Posted on: 8/16 23:42
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#44
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Quote:

Ralph_Abutts wrote:
I think predicting a "crash" is a bit strong. Even at the last RE bubble, folks in downtown took a big hit, but not nearly as bad as others regionally or nationally .


There's more to JC than downtown. According to the appraisals I received in 2012, my 2004 Heights purchase lost 25% off the purchase price. Had I needed to sell rather than just trying to refi that would have been a really big deal. And had I bought it two years later the loss would have been far more significant.

Posted on: 8/15 11:34
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#45
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Someone who predicts doom for JC real estate, and gets the reasons totally wrong, and the timing totally wrong?


Look at it this way: in every market cycle there's going to be people who get out too early, and those who buy just before it crashes. Which would you rather be? Sure, you'd like to be the guy that times it perfectly, surely you know that's not easy or everyone would be doing it!

Winter is coming...this we know, because it always has. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. I don't think most fans of GoT really think about how weird and fucked up it would be if you didn't actually know when winter would come. You'd not know when to start saving food or preserving meat. Every cold snap would make you think it's coming and every Indian Summer heat wave would reassure you it's not. Market cycles are like that.

Posted on: 8/15 9:43
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#46
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
I have to point out that people on JC List (not the people posting in this thread so far) have seen "signs" of bubbles and bursts for at least 3 years now.


Sometimes, as last time, these thing have so many moving parts and outside forces it's hard to predict. Even a broken clock is eventually right! I see prices going sky high, but not rents or salaries. That spells trouble to me, but I already admitted to being too timid to buy in this market.

Did you read the article about the dude who had been predicting the economic disaster in Turkey for at least 6 years? He was right, it just took time.

Posted on: 8/14 22:14
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Re: Jersey City seeks to boost pay of department directors
#47
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That's an interesting anecdote that sure refutes my perception. And there's no doubt the city web presence sucks. I wonder if some fields like finance and IT are so saturated with money that the floor salary for competence really is that high. As a counter-example I know a social worker with 2 Ivy degrees who directs a major hospital clinic supervising dozens and doesn't break $100k. I'd argue that example is more relevant to most city govt positions.

Posted on: 8/14 18:45
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Re: Jersey City seeks to boost pay of department directors
#48
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
some positions would be hard to find a talented person to be able to discharge the duties and responsibilities without providing a competitive salary


Possibly, but I doubt it. My observation has been that the Metro area is so saturated in well educated talent in every field that the difference between the top and middle is mostly the opportunities they've had. It's easy to see this in the arts, but it extends to many other fields.

Posted on: 8/14 17:12
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#49
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
If you don't mind my asking: where would you normally draw the line?


I think I draw myself right out of the market! I have never considered buying a place with negative cashflow. My last purchase in 2012 was a 4U for $300k, and was fully rented at $3,600, making it 6.94 GRM. All indications are that it would sell for well over twice that. Even accounting for renovations and rent increases, it would lose money at that price.

It's sad but true what you say about foreign investment here. What those countries need desperately is domestic investments to grow their economies, but their governments are such a mess no one believes that if they build something it won't be taken away by corruption. So both the kleptocrats and the "investor class" send their cash offshore.

Posted on: 8/14 16:15
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#50
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Quote:

ILRie wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
What I'd also like to know about this property is how are they getting 4 floors in an R-1 zone? Did they get a variance?


It actually looks like it sits in the R-5 zone, according to the city's latest zoning map. 323 7th sits near the junction of Monmouth and 7th? So yeah, in that orange colored bit which is the R-5 (note: had to zoom in like 200% to see it clearly).

So they could have 4 floors, provided 7th St has a sixty feet or more right of way; if it's less, then they'd need a variance.


Huh, was that part of that rezoning shitshow last year about the Village? I'm now R-5! Surely that increases the value of a property as a teardown tremendously, no? I've been thinking for a while my lot value was higher as a scrape job. Maybe they'll scrape some of the hideous Bayonne Boxes!

Can you elaborate or reference the sixty feet or more right of way? Is that the street width or the street plus sidewalk setback? I believe the street is the standard 40' that most of the city is.

EDIT: searching the city ordinance https://library.municode.com/nj/jersey ... inances?nodeId=CHA352ENOR there's no explicit definition, but it appears sidewalks are a "public right of way", so that the width would include them.

Posted on: 8/14 14:37
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Re: Jersey City seeks to boost pay of department directors
#51
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Quote:

Stringer wrote:

Jersey City seeks to boost pay of department directors

JERSEY CITY — The city is proposing annual raises of $10,660 to $28,835 for nine department directors, citing a need to boost pay to keep top officials from fleeing city government for higher paying jobs.

The planned pay raises would be the first for the nine positions in more than a decade. The business administrator, clerk and corporation counsel would see their pay rise from $139,340 to $150,000. The directors of economic development, health, human resources, public works and recreation, plus the tax assessor, would get a pay boost from $121,165 to $150,000.

https://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... _of_department_direc.html



Let em flee, this "losing talent" crap is the biggest lie. There's plenty of competent people out there who would love those already well paying jobs. I know people with Ivy degrees who'd be thrilled to make $140k in the public sector with great benefits.

Posted on: 8/14 12:41
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#52
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Given the current DTJC market, I feel that a GRM of 100 is a little too conservative. Most of the new luxury developments in DTJC that provide a good reference point (say, developments in which condos and rentals are built by the same developer, in the same area, such as Oakman/ArtHouse or Provost Square) have GRMs of 200 - 300. Of course, that's a deep-pocketed developer, so probably not a very apt comparison.

The big question is does a property cashflow, or is it a speculation play. A bank would not lend on any of these if they were commercial and being appraised via their Cap Rate rather than comps.

FWIW, let me correct your GRM calc, it's usually done as price/(monthly rent x12), so something selling for 100x rent has a GRM of 8.3. The worst GRM I ever bought was a 10.7 3-family in 2004.

What I'd also like to know about this property is how are they getting 4 floors in an R-1 zone? Did they get a variance?

Posted on: 8/14 12:36
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#53
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Quote:

hero69 wrote:
why is this a bubble? please explain.


There's lots of signs. One is this kind of pre-construction sale where the seller is trying to get it sold while the market is still hot, and the buyers often think they can make money just holding the property with the downpayment till completion and then they can flip it for profit in a double closing. Another is the GRM of these properties, the rent/purchase ratio. This place would have to rent for $18k a month to make sense as a rental, so who in their truly right mind wants to own it?

Posted on: 8/13 21:36
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#54
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
The listing for 323 7th St popped up in my Zillow feed. 4br, 5 bath SFR, $1,850,000. Beautiful pics of interior and exterior, and currently an empty lot!


This is a sign we are approaching the next property crash.


One sign among many...

Posted on: 8/13 16:44
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Re: Recommendations- Dumpster Rental
#55
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
[quote]

I just called Interstate and they said the smallest they have is 10 yard. How do you have a 1 yard?


Maybe they only have the small ones for people who rent monthly? I keep one in my garage since I have so many small project going on that require me to get rid of stuff.


Is it possible they said that because it's construction debris not household crap? The Bagster is a bust, these morons require 5' clearance all around the 4x8 bag, so they need a 14x18 footprint next to the street! No one has a 14' wide driveway here!

Posted on: 8/13 16:42
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Re: Recommendations- Dumpster Rental
#56
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
I have a 1 yard I use to put old rugs and other stuff in (no cardboard allowed) as I am doing apartment refreshes. It gets picked up once per month. Costs me about $60 a month for the service.


I just called Interstate and they said the smallest they have is 10 yard. How do you have a 1 yard?

Just did some research on the "Bagster" from WM. $30 to buy the 3 yard bag, $175 to haul away, 3k lb limit. Perfect!!! Only issue is will having it the driveway for a few days till they collect attract a Buildings inspector nosing around. I don't think replacing a tile tub surround needs a permit but you never know with those pirates.

Posted on: 8/13 15:58

Edited by brewster on 2018/8/13 16:25:19
Edited by brewster on 2018/8/13 16:28:03
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I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#57
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The listing for 323 7th St popped up in my Zillow feed. 4br, 5 bath SFR, $1,850,000. Beautiful pics of interior and exterior, and currently an empty lot! Wow. They don't let the cat out of the bag till the final line of the long description: "Estimated completion late Spring/early Summer 2019. "

Posted on: 8/13 14:53
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Re: Recommendations- Dumpster Rental
#58
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Quote:

light12v wrote:
That's an outrageous charge tern [Robin].....I paid independent Roselle <$500 for each 40yd container with 5 TONS of Roof ripoff materials [my job required 2x] when I had my 135 year old Roof & Yankee gutters ripped & re-built in the Fall of 2016


You ain't seen outrageous. I demoed out and bagged about 90 sq ft of bathroom tile and 2 layers of wallboard. I was quoted by one of the "cleanout" companies $750 to carry it down 2 flights and take it away. Another wanted $450. I wanted to get some of those 1/2 yard rollaways that can fit in my alley, but I could not find anyone who did that after the one carter, Falesto, closed.

Posted on: 8/9 17:27
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Re: Hatfield and McCoy's on Astor Place!
#59
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I gotta agree the NA's vary by their leadership. When I moved to HP the NA was controlled by the dog people, the park was literally gone to the dogs, they wouldn't even allow discussion of a dog run. It was the classic Yvonne type "we like it as it is, it works for us, nothing should change, ever". They were even suspicious and negative when a new resident wanted to start a farmers market!
But the leadership changed and HPNA did a remarkable and professional job of resident inclusion on the park renovation planning.

Posted on: 8/8 22:47
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Re: seeking Art Replicator / Forger - odd request
#60
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Quote:

K-Lo2 wrote:
Quote:
It is suppose to be a 'Jackson Pollock'


Do you know any house painters from who you could borrow a drop cloth?


Better yet, find a 2 year old and give them some fingerpaint. Here's one of my daughter's, I'l license it to you for a reasonable fee. Powerful, huh?

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/8 14:43
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