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Please tell us about your extensive experience with the press and with unions.

TSmith, we know that you know Dan, but you don't know Jack.

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TSmith, (the T stands for "Troll," right?), we know that you know Dan, but you clearly don't know Jack.

First, the Healy poll they released was not a poll, but a push-poll, designed not to gather information, but to push people's impressions of candidates in a certain direction. The classic form is the question asked of South Carolina voters in 2000: "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?"

So the "Healy" poll was garbage.

Second, you cannot believe what ANY campaign tells you about polliing. They give selective results, they spin, and they outright lie. When Healy tells you he's ahead it means that he's ahead, or it's neck and neck, or that he's behind. You can only trust polls if they are independent, transparent, or if you can aggregate multiple polls.

Third, everybody wants endorsements. Few of them move the needle. The ones that have the potential to are:

1. Most important - the ones that come with real, countable, votes (like unions with local membership and good mobilization, or an issue organization like NRA or AARP). The Obama family is not registered in JC - zero votes there.

- or -

2. Maybe important - the ones that help you with a problem constituency. Healy's name is VERY low in Ward F. Barack Obama helps him way more than his no-name council candidate. How much? Who knows.

There's no objective measure of where the race stands right now. There are opinions, all of which are tea leaves. Some people can read 'em. Most haven't a clue.

TSmith, keep posting, pretty soon your total will make it look like...you've made a lot of posts.

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Two hours is an awfully long time to spend with a bottle of water.

It's hard to see what Healy gets out of this. He tried to work the ref, and have the City Clerk Robert Byrne disallow the nickname. If it worked, fine for Healy.

Assuming Byrne doesn't bite at that - and why would he given all the nicknames which have preceded Chico Ramchal on the JC ballot - then the Healy team has to go to court.

Where they would lose. Names are not titles. And nicknames are still names. Read the statute and the 2001 decision which they cite.

Or just ask ROSS C. (ROCKY) ANDERSON and ROBERT ?TURK? TURKAVAGE, candidates certified by the state for President and Senator in 2012, and appearing on your ballot several columns to the right of the major party candidates.

Aside from causing Mr. Ramchal some nervous moments, Healy wound up giving their opponent some free publicity. Not only is the name CHICO better known today than yesterday, now people are also clear that he's the non-Healy guy. And they stirred up Chico's volunteers something fierce.

Another brilliant move from the gang that couldn't run straight. Heck of a job, Jerry.

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Healy must be having trouble with his memory again, forgetting his defeated Council appointment and failed judicial appointment, who appeared on the ballot as "RADAMES RAY VELAZQUEZ,Jr."

I'm just gonna bet that "Ray" is not on his birth certificate.

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ROTFL! Healy must really be grasping at straws.

Healy's Ward B candidate is in trouble, so apparently they'll try anything. Chico is known throughout the ward, and known by his name - Chico. His opponent has much less reach, whether you call him Jerry or Gerald.

While we're on the subject of names, does anyone know what led the Mayor's parents to mis-spell Jeremiah on the poor kid's birth certificate?

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PACs and Super PACs are corporate entities, they just have different requirements than election funds.

The main practical reason for NOT using a PAC is that the campaign is not permitted to coordinate activities with it (wink, wink). If you can raise all the money you need, it's better to keep it in house so you can 100% control the message and the resources you're spending them on.

That's why your Super PAC is typically run by someone who knows what you would want done, and someone who follows your public statements.

The only real reason to use a PAC/Super PAC is to circumvent campaign finance limitations. Donors can give more to the PAC, and with fewer reporting requirements, even anonymity.

In this election you see Healy turning to Super PACs because he cannot count on his traditional funders. Fulop-sponsored pay to play reforms prevent him from getting money from people who hope to be rewarded with no bid contracts. Since there's no Solomon Dwek out there (so far as we know), he has to turn to other sources.

One of the Lee Atwater / Karl Rove tactics is to do something outrageous enough that you can get others to repeat your message, even if they're saying how nasty it is.

The message still gets out there, and the theme becomes part of the background. The originator of the slime sits back and smiles as free media and buzz distributes the message far and wide.

I'll bet that Healy did not print a lot of these, and is relying on others to spread the word. My guess is they sent at least as many of these hit pieces downtown, to attack the perception of Fulop as clean and with integrity, as they did to Ward F.

When you pick up slime, you can't help but get slimed yourself.

There are a number of interesting things.

First is the way he tries to tie himself to Glenn and Sandy Cunningham. He says he deferred running until it was clear that Sandy Cunningham was out of the race.

Second, he pretty much concedes that he is focused on African American votes.

Third is the amount of time devoted to a defense of his Jersey City residency. "I?ve been living here over a year."

And finally, he stakes out community policing as his signature issue. Although Fulop has been talking about this for some time and released a detailed policy paper on it, Walker says "that?s the one thing in my platform I really want to emphasize."

If anyone can point us to his platform, I'd like to see it. His website, under "Walker's Platform," links to a page called bio-2. This is a piece credited to Jennifer Gonzalez which talks mostly about his basketball career. The closest it gets to policy is talking about the value of "constructive alternatives to the negative influences of the inner city," and saying that education is important.

There's not much out there from Jerry Walker. This is the first thing of much substance I've seen. Jersey City mayoral candidate Jerry Walker: The PolitickerNJ.com Interview

SAMPLE:

Asked about how much money he has raised or will raise toward his Jersey City mayoral campaign and ex-Seton Hall basketball star Jerry Walker thunders against drugs on the streets, including what he calls the latest worst affliction to local youth called dip: PCP dipped in embalming fluid and smoked.

?It?s driving them crazy,? said Walker, who founded and runs his own after-school non-profit, Team Walker. ?It?s turning them into zombies.?

Overshadowed to date by incumbent Jersey City Mayor Jerry Healy and Downtown City Councilman Steve Fulop, Walker has raised little money to date in his quest to be the next mayor, but he claims that simply enhances his ability to resist special interests as he attempts to reconceive a people?s city hall.

Read more at http://www.politickernj.com/63976/jer ... m-interview#ixzz2NciaqWno
or sign up for a free trial of State Street Wire at http://www.politickernj.com/freetrial

Pastor Gonzalez has been saying that his "personal beliefs" are off-limits in his run for public office. He says (on the Jersey Journal blog) "I am not running on a 'religious' platform."

An individual's beliefs have never been off-limits in American political discourse. People have the freedom to hold beliefs, to state them, or to refuse to state them. But American voters have always understood a candidate's beliefs to say something about how they will govern. They have always been and always will be "fair game," and Pastor Gonzalez has the right to answer or not answer, as his conscience and judgment dictates.

But he also claims he is not running a religious campaign. Some of us might easily be confused on that point.

1. His wife, who is co-pastor with him, uses her personal Facebook page to urge people to vote for Pr. Gonzalez as a matter of Christian faith. "If you live in Jersey City Heights, and you are a Christian, Mario Gonzalez is the candidate that you should be voting for Councilman for Ward D." (Posted March 2 with a link to the campaign Facebook page.) That statement is linked directly to his campaign page. That sure sounds like a religious campaign.

2. That same campaign Facebook page interchangeably promotes his campaign and his church and his religious beliefs, and praises church members and ministers of the church for doing his campaign work. Pastor Gonzalez has one of his church's pastors coordinating campaign activities: "Would you volunteer just a few hours to get petitions signed? This is our chance to make a difference in our community. Let's take advantage of it Please call Pastor Donald (917)xxx-xxxx, or Luis (973)xxx-xxxx to volunteer." (Posted March 1, ten days before candidate nominating petitions were due.) That sure sounds like a religious campaign.

All of these things are his right to do. But they also open him up to questions. How does he understand the roles of church and state? What are his beliefs? How will they influence him as an elected representative of all the people in his district and the city?

When a candidate so easily blends his church and his politics, isn't it legitimate to ask how he would act sitting in the Council Chamber?

All fair questions. Ducking them by claiming the other side wasn't polite in raising the issue, or claiming it's "personal" not public, are just not convincing.

Forget the signs - not important. Everybody knows what's really important, and that's the burning question of the day. Who won the only competition that matters: the St. Patrick's Day Parade?

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Isn't that Healy's major problem?

We know that a bunch of them (1 Deputy Mayor/Campaign Treasurer, 3 Council candidates, 1 political advisor, plus a number of political allies and members of his administration) went to jail for public corruption. (I'm sure the mayor would like you to believe he knew nothing about it, and all the bad apples are gone.)

We know that Healy's team goes to sleep governing for 3? years, then awakens right before an an election to tell everybody what a great job they're doing.

We know that Healy's team continues to oppose government reform and skirt the law at every opportunity.

We know that Healy's team is composed of people paid through political patronage, with high-salaries, free cars, low-work jobs, poor performance, and padded pensions.

Jersey City already knows Healy's team. Crazy throws around vague threats about Fulop as some unknown quantity. But Fulop also has a brand, and has been working hard to improve the city and its government.

Crazy, you have put the finger on one of the major issues in the campaign.

Fulop has a track record, and Healy has a hack record.

To the extent that Fulop is practicing demographic politics, you'd have to say that women are first on his list.

1. The highest number of women ever on a Council ticket (4, all of whom have serious chances of winning)

2. Women make up a major part of his volunteer crew (remember those school board elections)

3. Coincidentally a Women's Day fundraiser tonight

You'd have to say that demographically, Fulop is the Obama Democrat in this race, while Healy is the McCain/Romney old white guy yelling "get off my porch" and hoping all the other old white guys will come along.

Bad electoral math in Jersey City.

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"City officials don't see a negative" that one of the centerpieces of its economic development "success stories" can't use 20% of its building. "The discount Goldman will be offering on this prime space offers a great opportunity for small business startups, and will finally allow traditional mom 'n pop enterprises to have that waterfront presence they have been lacking."

"City officials don't see a negative" in the spike in the murder rate since the first of the year, noting that it is really quite small when viewed against the huge increase in gun and ammunition sales.

"City officials don't see a negative" in Superstorm Sandy, citing all the positive economic activity the storm left in its wake.

"City officials don't see a negative" in anything, unless Steve Fulop said it, did it, or is working to make it happen.

Fulop hardly rips Healy - although he should. After seeing so many of his 2009 campaign team go to jail, Healy should be more careful when he's breaking the law.

It would be interesting to see Mayor Healy not simply promise to return what were clearly unlawful donations, but to have an independent certification that the donations were returned. Even better would be releasing the details of how much money he illegally steered to the PAC, and who the donors were. But that would take a commitment to integrity and transparency.

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Boggiano's got a decent chance at winning the race. It's between him and Lopez, and the question is who knows and brings out their voters better. HCDeadO votes for Chevres probably cut more into Lopez voters.

As a retired police officer, though, Boggiano should not be so sensitive to disappearing campaign signs. Last year "Boggiano 2013" signs appeared all over town, almost always in illegal locations, while he was making up his mind what he was going to run for. If people keep tearing down these illegal signs, maybe it will discourage candidates from breaking the law before they're in office.

"She can?t be bought," reads one of the signs. "Already under contract to Ray Lesniak."

it's a laughable attempt to keep her name out there without doing any work other than having an "unknown" friend print up a few signs. The JJ has now given her two stories for close to no money.

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That's a realistic assessment. Why develop a "new" area when you've got a more certain bet downtown with the same financial advantage?

In Jersey City, abatements have long been removed from any kind of land-use planning policy. Instead, they have become a tool of political influence-peddling.

You kind of wonder why taxpayers have taken so long to vote their pocketbook.

This is an interesting move by Fulop. Many llifelong residents remember their summer jobs with fondness. For Fulop, it's a subtle way to help discount Healy's "outsider" claims.

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Rumor has it that every union which has interviewed both candidates has chosen Fulop.

All the Healy endorsements come as insider deals.

Or so I've heard. Perhaps somebody from one of the unions or from the campaigns will go on the record about that.

I wonder if we are now at a tipping point.

The buzz and the feeling out of the two campaigns is completely different. Healy's Casino in the Park event had the air of nervous bravado, as do all the shrill press releases. Fulop's Zeppelin Hall event last night had his supporters pumped, maybe even over-confident.

Healy's team is having a lot of trouble getting their petitions done - not a good sign. Even the ward candidates who have a much lower threshold, really not a good sign. Fulop's team got out of the box early (4 years ago?) and has had their petitions in and full slate qualified for weeks now.

If former supporters are looking at the rising water level belowdecks (and they are), the next few weeks will be telling. Look for the Healy campaign to step up the press release war with announcements of ribbon-cuttings for projects without blueprints, and endorsements from all 3 members of the Amalgamated Union of Basketweavers. Oh, and did you know, he's a Democrat and a close personal friend of Barack Obama?

Look for the Fulop campaign to press their advantage in the opposite direction. There just might be another TV ad in the wings, and every time a former Healy loyalist jumps ship, look for the brass bands.

The big question for both campaigns, though, is not who wins the war of bluster, but who gets to the finish line. Healy hopes that the Fulop newcomers are all talk, and will spend the rest of the campaign on Facebook. It's up to Fulop to prove him wrong.

In this thread, one thing is clear. Jerry is still Jerry.

He fought pay to play reform because he knew it would hurt his money. He raised $3m last election because he and his team (both the indicted and the unindicted) communicated loud and clear that his administration was for sale.

You can now see that's true because his money has dried up, and he advertises in his campaign literature how his big money donors can avoid the laws that prevent him from rewarding his contributors.

Without the ability to play crooked, you have to wonder if he's got any ability to function.

I spoke too soon! Healy's hack did not sent out the entire article. The email made cuts from the original piece. What got cut?

CUT FROM HEALY'S VERSION:
"Fulop noted that he has the endorsement of prominent Democrats like Freeholder Bill O'Dea, Congressman Donald Payne Jr. and former Hudson County Democratic Organization chair Bernard Kenny.

CUT FROM HEALY'S VERSION:
While Weingart said such accusations can ?backfire? if it?s clear the target is not a Republican-in-Democratic-clothing, he noted that some candidates might want to register for the opposing party depending on where they want to run.

?If you want to be active in politics in Jersey City ? you would probably want to be a Democrat no matter what you thought,? he said.

There are a couple of points to take from this.

First is the degree of desperation it reflects from Healy's sinking ship. This is what he's got? Really?

Second is the underlying reality. Of course Fulop is a Democrat. Healy knows that Steve Fulop is a Democrat because Fulop, working with Bill O'Dea and Jeff Dublin, took over the Jersey City Democratic party, kicking Healy's guys out of the party leadership. Healy knows that Fulop is a Democrat , because Fulop has better access to Democratic leaders statewide and Democratic contributors statewide, that Healy does.

What frightens Healy is that Fulop's appeal is beyond partisan. He's attracted independents, and (gasp!) Republicans to support him because they see someone who is able to focus on the issues that matter to most voters. The past two days provide a great example. Fulop releases a plan to bring crime under control, something Healy has not been able to do after more than 8 years in office, and Healy releases a blast of sour "Republican" gas.

And third, we note that Healy's hired gun, David Parano, quickly blasted Healy's email list with the entire text of the story. Free JJ credibility for a bogus piece of lying campaign bulls#!t. Yo been played, Terrence!

The Mayor keeps asking folks if they'll run, and the answers coming back are "No," "Hell no," and "Get out of here!"

There's a reason why he has no Ward F candidate. Healy has pretty close to zero credibility on the Hill. It's not just the years of neglect for the whole ward. It's also a comment on how he deals with his black allies. Folks saw the kind of "support" he gave Michelle Massey in November. And people also see the handwriting on the wall. Joe Cardwell may have to start going door to door in order to find a candidate.

His inability to get anything going in the Heights is even more bizarre. Sean Connors' move to the Fulop team took the Mayor by surprise, that's a fact, but Healy's failure to come up with a Plan B, or Plan C, or Plan D is a sign of severe trouble.

Without question, Jerry Walker is fielding the sharpest dressing team.

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Let's try a dose of reality here. After 8 years of quiet inaction from City Hall, the Mayor now takes a stand which would result in very little change in NJ law or guns used in Jersey City. Sounds like he's running for re-election, taking a popular position which would have little impact. Better than nothing, but not much better.