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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#31
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Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not.

It isn't.

They're using a relatively new metric, which notes what percentages of homes go down. Real estate prices were rising steadily last year, yet around 20% of homes still lost value that year. (We also aren't looking at years of data, to get an idea about what is normal.)

We already know that prices have cooled a bit in 2015... and again, that's perfectly normal. No market goes up constantly. Few real estate markets go up uniformly across the board. Not every decline in value means that a bubble has burst, let alone formed in the first place.


I agree - def not evidence of a bubble. But if you compare rents in areas surrounding downtown to rents for comps in downtown, you'll see that the rents downtown are much lower relative to purchase prices than in those other areas; this is one thing that seems to suggest that asking prices are completely out of sync with reality and that they're being driven by speculation at this point - speculation that they'll keep going up at a relatively rapid pace. This speculation arose from the perception that downtown is rapidly changing, which is a false impression related to the surge in construction over the past two years, which itself was simply the result of a lack of construction over the previous 8 years (of course the Fulop administration's dozens of high-profile PR pieces and massive "Make it Yours" campaign had also contributed to the hype that is now dying off). Construction grinding to a halt once demand has largely been satisfied, or drop in rents due to oversupply of rental units - or both - will wake buyers up to reality. There's been a sort of hysteria in the market as it has oscillated from one extreme to another in the past several years and this isn't a healthy thing.

There are 3,500 additional new units downtown, 500 in JSQ, and another 1,000 (much cheaper for the same quality) in Harrison (total = 5,000) coming online by year-end, and this will definitely impact rents. Lower rents will make renting more attractive while the impending slowdown in construction will dull the perception that downtown is rapidly changing. Buyers are going to begin to pay more attention to the large undeveloped lots when cranes and other construction equipment disappear.

Also keep in mind that the inventory shortage has contributed to the price surge of the past 2 years, but there are now hundreds of new condos coming online for the first time in a decade; supply is about to surge and there's no evidence that demand is also about to surge (actually quite the opposite), which may definitely result in an oversupply of for-sale units.

One last note - I've gone to several open houses in the past few weeks and all the units I've seen were investor-owned. Seems like investors are starting to cash in.



Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"



By "no one" I assume you mean no one in your group of friends. I know many people who have moved from Newport and the Grove Street area to Harrison in the past year or so. Alot of young families who are looking for a safer & quieter neighborhood than you see in most parts of downtown.

Anyway, getting back on topic, the point is that there are many, many new rental units coming online in the next 3 months alone, and the competition is going to impact rents, which should encourage more people to rent and reduce buyer demand. At the same time there are all the condos I mentioned coming online (roughly 500 already U/C for late 2016 delivery). That supply/demand balance should be tipping back in the buyer's favor within a year or so.


Safer? No
http://www.areavibes.com/harrison-nj/crime/

http://www.areavibes.com/jersey+city-nj/downtown/crime/

Look at the chances of being a victim of violent crime and property crime in both areas.

If space is what you are looking for, I hear you can get a lot of space in tulsa oklahoma..

I know a colleague who moved from Manhattan back to the south with his family. I should mention that he got laid off...

So yeah, I guess it does depend on circumstances..

Posted on: 2015/9/4 16:47
 Top 


Re: The Beacon
#32
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Top 5 reasons why you should NOT buy a home at the Beacon

1) The area is not and for the foreseeable future, never will be gentrified. I'm not talking about soho gentrified - I am just talking about safe with decent restaurants and a decent grocer. Obvious it is not gentrified now but why not in the future? STill patches of land in dtjc (PAD for example) that are more appealing (Even if there are incentives for developers to build outside of dtjc, they are not stupid) and jsq (With the coming of the 3 towers) will now also attract businesses much better than that area around the beacon.

2) No one will ever visit you. Hell, you might not even want to go home yourself. Why? In addition to point #1, to get there via mass transportation, you have to wait for a specific bus to take you from grove to the beacon. The bus is tiny and in the winter or even summer, no one wants to wait in the cold or in the blistering heat - not even you.

3) You can do better for the money. Okay, you can't afford the sugar house but have you looked elsewhere in dtjc? Maybe dixon mills? It's not a great building compared to the other dtjc buildings but at least it's still in dtjc and walkable from the path.

4) You will be the first to lose money if the market goes down - even worse than in DTJC. Just google how during the last crash, no one was buying in the beacon. The developers almost declared bankrupty, or did - I forget. But just google it. They couldn't give those homes away for 50% off...

5) There is always a reason why things are cheaper. There is no free lunch my friend. The beacon is substantially cheaper than other buildings and there is a reason and this case, many reasons.

Posted on: 2015/9/4 4:42
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#33
Home away from home
Home away from home


Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not.

It isn't.

They're using a relatively new metric, which notes what percentages of homes go down. Real estate prices were rising steadily last year, yet around 20% of homes still lost value that year. (We also aren't looking at years of data, to get an idea about what is normal.)

We already know that prices have cooled a bit in 2015... and again, that's perfectly normal. No market goes up constantly. Few real estate markets go up uniformly across the board. Not every decline in value means that a bubble has burst, let alone formed in the first place.


I agree - def not evidence of a bubble. But if you compare rents in areas surrounding downtown to rents for comps in downtown, you'll see that the rents downtown are much lower relative to purchase prices than in those other areas; this is one thing that seems to suggest that asking prices are completely out of sync with reality and that they're being driven by speculation at this point - speculation that they'll keep going up at a relatively rapid pace. This speculation arose from the perception that downtown is rapidly changing, which is a false impression related to the surge in construction over the past two years, which itself was simply the result of a lack of construction over the previous 8 years (of course the Fulop administration's dozens of high-profile PR pieces and massive "Make it Yours" campaign had also contributed to the hype that is now dying off). Construction grinding to a halt once demand has largely been satisfied, or drop in rents due to oversupply of rental units - or both - will wake buyers up to reality. There's been a sort of hysteria in the market as it has oscillated from one extreme to another in the past several years and this isn't a healthy thing.

There are 3,500 additional new units downtown, 500 in JSQ, and another 1,000 (much cheaper for the same quality) in Harrison (total = 5,000) coming online by year-end, and this will definitely impact rents. Lower rents will make renting more attractive while the impending slowdown in construction will dull the perception that downtown is rapidly changing. Buyers are going to begin to pay more attention to the large undeveloped lots when cranes and other construction equipment disappear.

Also keep in mind that the inventory shortage has contributed to the price surge of the past 2 years, but there are now hundreds of new condos coming online for the first time in a decade; supply is about to surge and there's no evidence that demand is also about to surge (actually quite the opposite), which may definitely result in an oversupply of for-sale units.

One last note - I've gone to several open houses in the past few weeks and all the units I've seen were investor-owned. Seems like investors are starting to cash in.



Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"


Posted on: 2015/9/4 4:14
 Top 


Re: Black Man Executes White Cop At Texas Gas Station
#34
Home away from home
Home away from home


I wouldn't say, " Apparently, the movement, and other black leadership, doesn't give a damn about the lives of police officers" it's just not their cause.

IE. meat eaters who protest fur OR many people against the idea of cockfighting but still enjoy chicken wings OR those who highly support climate change legislation but don't recycle. You get the drift...


Posted on: 2015/9/1 14:44
 Top 


Re: Black Man Executes White Cop At Texas Gas Station
#35
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Quote:

caj11 wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Blacklivesmatter is a specific statement which says exactly that same thing - that black lives matter.


Perfectly fine, but here's the question I've asked 100 times but have never gotten a response - not here, not on their website or email, not anywhere else -

Several BLACK police officers have been killed as well recently, all within the span of a few days in March. But the BlackLivesMatter movement doesn't have a word to say about it. They have been dead silent. No demonstrations, no outrage. Why? Various journalists have asked this question as well. Not a peep from BlackLivesMatter or any other leadership in the black community. Why?

http://townhall.com/columnists/larrye ... utrage-n1976238/page/full


I'm not part of the movement but I believe the context is the systematic prejudice that cops (black and white cops) exhibit towards minorities (Specifically blacks). In this context, black lives matter.

So that above statement is still non-violent. I think you are conflating two issues. Let me go back to my example.

Individuals can protest the use of fur and leather in clothing (many do) but have nothing to say about eating beef and lamb. They want to protect cows and lambs in one context but not in the other. I wouldn't say they are hypocrites, I would just say that they are invested in one specific cause.


Posted on: 2015/9/1 13:48
 Top 


Re: Black Man Executes White Cop At Texas Gas Station
#36
Home away from home
Home away from home


Blacklivesmatter is a specific statement which says exactly that same thing - that black lives matter. It doesn't mean black lives matter more than white lives or asian or spanish lives.

Just like a save the panda movement doesn't mean save the panda bear but fk all those other bears.

Yes, there are individuals in the blacklivesmatter movement that hate cops and mean that black lives matter more than white lives and those individuals should be denounced but overall, it's a movement that means blacklivesmatter...

the entire police force is founded to serve and protect the masses and most believe that but there are a few bad apples. same exact thing.

There are bad apples everywhere, let's not denounce groups especially if their founding message is one of nonviolence. Plenty of groups to hate which promote violence..you know..ISIS for example.

Posted on: 2015/8/31 16:23
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Re: New Luxury Apartments Downtown - Suggestions
#37
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Home away from home


IMHO, I rather have a washer/dryer in the unit than a dishwasher. The thought of having to use a machine that has literally, a few minutes ago washed someone else's underwear is disgusting.

Posted on: 2015/7/9 17:32
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Re: JC mayor purchases house in the Heights (PHOTOS)
#38
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Quote:

Pebble wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

Pebble wrote:
Quote:

hero69 wrote:
Quote:

user1111 wrote:
Now that's a dream commute, If more people worked in Jersey City the heights is the way to go. Congrats, nice to hear Bergen Lafayette priced the mayor OUT!
did bergen lafayette really price fulop out, or did fulop not bid aggressively enough because his girlfriend did not want to live there....honestly, there is a shooting every damn week in bergen lafayette.

Bergen-Lafayette is a rather stupid moniker to begin with since its basically two different neighborhoods lumped together for no real reason. Additionally, it's a very large area. So saying there is a shooting there very week, when many of these shootings are taking place so very far away from various locations, is just a silly argument.

However, yeah, he's likely priced out, he doesn't feel the value for the home is on par or he just really liked the view that he was getting out of his back deck (most likely).


I love the what I call "no borders" argument because to be honest, we are all on planet Earth so downtown jersey City is just as dangerous as Fallujah Iraq....

I'm not even sure what the point is that you are trying to make. I can safely state that the block I live on is just about as safe as every neighborhood downtown. That doesn't mean that every block in Bergen Hill or the Lafayette area is just as safe, but it does point out that lumping in a giant section of town because of a few spot incidents doesn't quite cut it.

As for your thought that Fulop could buy "All of Bergen-Lafayette and Greenville" for what he paid... well, that just shows ignorance or that you're simply trolling. (I'll go with the latter.)


You can say anything you want but you do actually know that you live in a neighborhood which is defined by borders right? That is the point I am trying to make. You can say that Santa Claus lives with you all night and day but without any facts, why even say such things at all.

There are crime stats by neighborhood and people are making those comparisons. I guess if you looked at crime stats of your block with downtown in general you can verify that your "block" is just as safe as dtjc but you most likely didn't do that and just as everyone else that lives in crime ridden neighborhoods of JC, you just talk out of your you know what to lure unsuspecting newcomers into these crime ridden areas of JC in the hopes that someday you can live in the "it" neighborhood.

Yes, I was not being serious about my comment re: GV or BL. You are very smart.

Posted on: 2015/6/17 21:07
 Top 


Re: JC mayor purchases house in the Heights (PHOTOS)
#39
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Home away from home


Quote:

user1111 wrote:
Now that's a dream commute, If more people worked in Jersey City the heights is the way to go. Congrats, nice to hear Bergen Lafayette priced the mayor OUT!


For the price he paid for his new home, he could have purchased the entire B-L neighborhood and gotten Greenville thrown in for free.

Posted on: 2015/6/17 17:21
 Top 


Re: JC mayor purchases house in the Heights (PHOTOS)
#40
Home away from home
Home away from home


Quote:

Pebble wrote:
Quote:

hero69 wrote:
Quote:

user1111 wrote:
Now that's a dream commute, If more people worked in Jersey City the heights is the way to go. Congrats, nice to hear Bergen Lafayette priced the mayor OUT!
did bergen lafayette really price fulop out, or did fulop not bid aggressively enough because his girlfriend did not want to live there....honestly, there is a shooting every damn week in bergen lafayette.

Bergen-Lafayette is a rather stupid moniker to begin with since its basically two different neighborhoods lumped together for no real reason. Additionally, it's a very large area. So saying there is a shooting there very week, when many of these shootings are taking place so very far away from various locations, is just a silly argument.

However, yeah, he's likely priced out, he doesn't feel the value for the home is on par or he just really liked the view that he was getting out of his back deck (most likely).


I love the what I call "no borders" argument because to be honest, we are all on planet Earth so downtown jersey City is just as dangerous as Fallujah Iraq....

Posted on: 2015/6/17 17:19
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Re: Has anyone else experienced Indian upstairs neighbors with heavy feet?
#41
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Actually Asians, including Indians, take shoes off while indoors so your story is most likely fake. Cool story though.


Posted on: 2015/6/16 3:01
 Top 


Re: Brooklyn Rent to Greenville JC Home; Nervous about recent crime
#42
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Home away from home


http://www.areavibes.com/

Go, put in an address and see for yourself. Don't rely on one person because one person can say anything. I have an uncle twice removed who doesn't think 9/11 happened...

Posted on: 2015/6/5 20:22
 Top 


Re: Brooklyn Rent to Greenville JC Home; Nervous about recent crime
#43
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Home away from home


Quote:

stuff wrote:
Quote:

user1111 wrote:
and crime is way down in the area... Nothing has not happen to me or anyone in my household since we have been living in the area since 2011. check us out on Next Door Bayside Park


This is very good to know. Thank you!


I have this bridge to sell and I want to pitch it to you....

Posted on: 2015/6/5 20:20
 Top 


Re: Noise Complaint, worth it to call in?
#44
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Quote:

I_heart_JC wrote:
So, here's a new side-effect of "restaurant row" we get to enjoy all summer:

When the places close down at 2/3am, their customers stroll in packs through downtown towards their cars, talking loudly, shouting to each-other across the street, completely oblivious to the fact that they're in a residential neighborhood.

I've noticed it increasing as the weather warms up.

At 3:30 this morning, I had to go down and tell a bunch of grown men and women - sitting on my stoop - that they were having their loud conversation right under several open bedroom windows. They seemed surprised and were apologetic, and quickly took it elsewhere. So no drama, but....seriously?

I see no simple solution to this.



I see solutions

1) close your window and turn the AC on. You don't own the street.

2) move, I hear lubbock texas is quiet in the summer

Posted on: 2015/5/30 18:17
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#45
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Quote:

greenville wrote:
Rents are through the roof and that is jacking up prices in the whole city.


You're welcome

Posted on: 2015/5/6 2:14
 Top 


Re: Bad idea to buy property near embankment?
#46
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Quote:

shams wrote:
Hi,

I'm considering buying a house near the jersey city embankment. The property has a small backyard that juts up against the embankment wall. I like the privacy it gives the house, but is it a major gamble to buy over there (given that the future of the embankment is in question?)

It's nice and quiet there right now, but the idea of a busy/loud park overlooking my bedroom in say 10 years sounds pretty unsavory. Any thoughts or insights would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!


In 10 years, your house will be worth more than twice what you are buying it for...so isn't it a win win? If it's not loud, you stay, if it is loud, you sell and and buy something with the $$$$ earned.

Posted on: 2015/5/5 2:49
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#47
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Home away from home


Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

07310 wrote:
Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

Bubble_Tea wrote:
Quote:

I think they *know* there is a dearth of condo options in DTJC and hoping to capitalize on that.


Yes--developers are indeed aware of the law of supply and demand.


Ha! Of course, that was an overly obvious statement. What I was trying to convey is that the pricing is completely out of line because they KNOW that they are (essentially) the only game in town for at least another year in the segment of new construction, for sale condos. I really hope more options come online in the next year or two, but looking at the list of proposed developments, it seems like there is nothing other than The Oakman in DTJC proper. Over in Newport, there is The Laguna.

The Laguna is a rental not a condo.


Doh! I got my building names mixed up. I should have said the The Shore Club. And, btw, that building has a ton more amenities than The Gannon, and it goes for about $700/sf, which is about 25% less.


shore club is a nice building, right behind I would say the sugar house class of jc luxury building. However, shore club is dated. popcorn ceilings anyone?

Posted on: 2015/5/5 2:44
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#48
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People who think trump is luxury should be patted on the back for trying. Also, true JC building quality is much better than NYC luxury building quality. For example, the sugarhouse in JC is my vote for the best luxury building in jersey city. Of course, not many people even know about it and continue to think buildings like "trump" are luxurious lolol.

Posted on: 2015/5/5 2:38
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Re: Attention high rise tenants and investors !
#49
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lots of jealous people on jclist.

Posted on: 2015/4/30 23:41
 Top 


Re: Attention high rise tenants and investors !
#50
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Quote:

fat-ass-bike wrote:
I look at it like a car - if your car has a high safety rating but you get a death trap, would you be happy?

We have codes on construction and materials we are allowed to use - would you be happy if a small apartment fire ends up being a total distruction of a complex ... Would you be happy?

We've been lucky with some devastating complex fires that hasn't cost a life. People have been deceived that their building were up to code ... Codes are in place so that don't burn fast which leads me to believe we have a problem here.


are you drunk?

Posted on: 2015/4/30 3:30
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Re: Attention high rise tenants and investors !
#51
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So we should be worried based on an article about a product in which you have no proof that this material is even used in the US, let alone in JC high rise towers

Nice. Way to fear monger. People reallly hate downtown on jclist. Looks like you want to influence the market here. Also a post about being afraid of living in a high rise and fires in high rise buildings rofl

Why do people always hate people that can afford a higher level of living?

Posted on: 2015/4/29 15:52
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#52
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People who think prices in DTJC are inflated have no clue about

1)The buyers and renters within DTJC
2) The local trie-state real estate market
3) Past Manhattan trends and how DTJC is more like brooklyn heights and manhattan than it is to even other neighborhoods within JC.

But whatever. Keep ragging on DTJC. DTJC is the only reason why people would even consider living in Jersey City.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 15:47
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#53
Home away from home
Home away from home


Quote:

hero69 wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:
When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.


LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.


What? These are the what will increase demand in both rentals & condos - at least in the luxury high rise department:

1) WTC filling up
2) Manhattan increase in jobs (you mentioned this)
3) Increase in rental and property values in Manhattan (you did not mention this) which will drive people to DTJC
4) Hoboken price out
5) People in nearby NJ cities who want a nightlife
6) Those in nearby JC neighborhoods who want to live closer to Manhattan and are willing to pay more - those in Heights for example

You mentioned the gannon. I went to the website and can't even see availability - only the ability to join a mailing list..is this building even done? Oakman is not online so how do we even judge this?

We should look at recent rentals and recent condo sales. They are high, very high in the DTJC luxury high rise market but still 50% off from Manhattan Proper. DTJC will rise....and there is still money to be made.

I also do not see an influx of condo owners dumping their units onto the market before prices fall.....the buildings you mention have less than 10 units per building on the market right now. inventory is extraordinarily low. Are we talking about DTJC here?
please tell me how i can make some of that dtjc money!


gather up whatever savings,income, family money, drug money, college education money you can find and then buy whatever comes on the market right now in dtjc at full price. Hang on for 10 years and when you become a billionaire, you can cut me a nice check.


Posted on: 2015/4/29 0:57
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#54
Home away from home
Home away from home


Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:
When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.


LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.


What? These are the what will increase demand in both rentals & condos - at least in the luxury high rise department:

1) WTC filling up
2) Manhattan increase in jobs (you mentioned this)
3) Increase in rental and property values in Manhattan (you did not mention this) which will drive people to DTJC
4) Hoboken price out
5) People in nearby NJ cities who want a nightlife
6) Those in nearby JC neighborhoods who want to live closer to Manhattan and are willing to pay more - those in Heights for example

You mentioned the gannon. I went to the website and can't even see availability - only the ability to join a mailing list..is this building even done? Oakman is not online so how do we even judge this?

We should look at recent rentals and recent condo sales. They are high, very high in the DTJC luxury high rise market but still 50% off from Manhattan Proper. DTJC will rise....and there is still money to be made.

I also do not see an influx of condo owners dumping their units onto the market before prices fall.....the buildings you mention have less than 10 units per building on the market right now. inventory is extraordinarily low. Are we talking about DTJC here?

Posted on: 2015/4/29 0:41
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#55
Home away from home
Home away from home


Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

JGJDNYCJC wrote:
Quote:

devilsadvocate wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Same thing gets said about manhattan year after year yet demand stays high and vacancy is low.

Re: DTJC real estate, which is extremely different than other parts of JC, it is not a bubble. If you compare luxury high rises, 1brs in DTJC are going for the same rental prices as studio apts in manhattan, 2brs in dtjc are around the 1br pricing for manhattan.

When such a bargain still exists, there is much catching up to do..


I don't understand why you think this is a "bargain." Jersey City is an inferior good to living in Manhattan, and you're absolutely kidding yourself if you think otherwise. If you could get a comparable place in Manhattan, then I would immediately sell my JC home and acquire a similar property in Manhattan on Central Park or Riverside (two parks that are better than anything JC has to offer).


You're missing the point.

First, there's DTJC, and there's the rest of JC. The two are very different and have evolved differently. It's a bit like UES and Spanish Harlem. Close but far apart.

Second, DTJC is appealing precisely because it's not Manhattan. You can have your space, a car, quiet, some decent retail, and some transit. I liken it to a mix of Brooklyn and Queens and heckuvalot cheaper than both, with better quality and newer real estate.

The folks attracted to DTJC are often seeking a more affordable, lower scale, but proximate alternative to Manhattan, who found Brooklyn too costly.


I am the first one to admit that DTJC is VERY different than the rest of JC, at least pricing wise. When I mention Manhattan, I mean more UES and less East Harlem. Let's call what I mean Manhattan Proper.

Yes, people seeking DTJC want cheaper but I think property values are still undervalued in DTJC and should reach Brooklyn Heights levels which would be more in line with the value you described..."parking, newer amenities,etc"



I tend to agree with you except for one HUGE limiting factor and that is the PATH.

Jersey City, particularly DTJC, has been on a development binge but has failed to improve or upgrade the underlying infrastructure. Most important of all this is arguably the PATH, which JC does not even control. Right now, rush hour trains are already packed to ridiculous levels (and unlike the NYC subways where people constantly get off the train, each PATH stop only brings in a new flood of people, at least until 9th street).

Other posters at Newport have said they have to get on a train going to JSQ just so they can have room for the trip into Manhattan. If this is how it is now I can't imagine how bad it's going to get after the 25,000+ apartments currently under construction get completed. Yes there are some signal improvements scheduled, but I doubt the extra train capacity comes near the increased load on the system the new apartments represent.

And no one is tackling the problem because it isn't their problem. Developers don't care, they just want to lease their buildings out. Fulop can't even do anything but I doubt he cares too much since he's thinking of his governor run and that election will take place before these problems really come to a head. And we all know the PA certainly doesn't care.

So I think the PATH will tremendously dampen DTJC's future property values. It's the sort of thing people won't realize until it is too late.


This is true. I am a hater of the PATH as well and it will affect property prices if crowding continues to accelerate.

Posted on: 2015/4/29 0:30
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#56
Home away from home
Home away from home


Quote:

JGJDNYCJC wrote:
Quote:

devilsadvocate wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Same thing gets said about manhattan year after year yet demand stays high and vacancy is low.

Re: DTJC real estate, which is extremely different than other parts of JC, it is not a bubble. If you compare luxury high rises, 1brs in DTJC are going for the same rental prices as studio apts in manhattan, 2brs in dtjc are around the 1br pricing for manhattan.

When such a bargain still exists, there is much catching up to do..


I don't understand why you think this is a "bargain." Jersey City is an inferior good to living in Manhattan, and you're absolutely kidding yourself if you think otherwise. If you could get a comparable place in Manhattan, then I would immediately sell my JC home and acquire a similar property in Manhattan on Central Park or Riverside (two parks that are better than anything JC has to offer).


You're missing the point.

First, there's DTJC, and there's the rest of JC. The two are very different and have evolved differently. It's a bit like UES and Spanish Harlem. Close but far apart.

Second, DTJC is appealing precisely because it's not Manhattan. You can have your space, a car, quiet, some decent retail, and some transit. I liken it to a mix of Brooklyn and Queens and heckuvalot cheaper than both, with better quality and newer real estate.

The folks attracted to DTJC are often seeking a more affordable, lower scale, but proximate alternative to Manhattan, who found Brooklyn too costly.


I am the first one to admit that DTJC is VERY different than the rest of JC, at least pricing wise. When I mention Manhattan, I mean more UES and less East Harlem. Let's call what I mean Manhattan Proper.

Yes, people seeking DTJC want cheaper but I think property values are still undervalued in DTJC and should reach Brooklyn Heights levels which would be more in line with the value you described..."parking, newer amenities,etc"


Posted on: 2015/4/28 22:09
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#57
Home away from home
Home away from home


Quote:

devilsadvocate wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Same thing gets said about manhattan year after year yet demand stays high and vacancy is low.

Re: DTJC real estate, which is extremely different than other parts of JC, it is not a bubble. If you compare luxury high rises, 1brs in DTJC are going for the same rental prices as studio apts in manhattan, 2brs in dtjc are around the 1br pricing for manhattan.

When such a bargain still exists, there is much catching up to do..


I don't understand why you think this is a "bargain." Jersey City is an inferior good to living in Manhattan, and you're absolutely kidding yourself if you think otherwise. If you could get a comparable place in Manhattan, then I would immediately sell my JC home and acquire a similar property in Manhattan on Central Park or Riverside (two parks that are better than anything JC has to offer).


I agree that DTJC is an inferior product to Manhattan. Duh. However, should a 2 BR high rise apt in DTJC with superior amenities (like in unit washer dryer and parking included) be worth the same as a 1 BR high rise in Manhattan and even sometimes a studio with inferior amenities (washer/dryer ROOM, parquet flooring, maybe not even stainless steel appliances and def no parking included - laughable) ?

I like to think not and the the current rise in pricing in dtjc high rises (both in rents and condo sales) agree with me. It is worth less than Manhattan but it is not half off.

An analogy - Right now Manhattan is priced at Banana Republic Pricing and DTJC is at Old Navy pricing where it should be at Gap pricing.

Posted on: 2015/4/28 21:45
 Top 


Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
#58
Home away from home
Home away from home


Same thing gets said about manhattan year after year yet demand stays high and vacancy is low.

Re: DTJC real estate, which is extremely different than other parts of JC, it is not a bubble. If you compare luxury high rises, 1brs in DTJC are going for the same rental prices as studio apts in manhattan, 2brs in dtjc are around the 1br pricing for manhattan.

When such a bargain still exists, there is much catching up to do..

Posted on: 2015/4/28 17:31
 Top 


Re: Saw a stolen bike sale and a drug deal in DTJC
#59
Home away from home
Home away from home


Quote:

dtjcview wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
..
Per square foot, value in paulus hook is worth a lot more than property value in GV - on the same order as africa is bigger than omaha - that's a fact, not even estimates.

...



Omaha - 130.58 sq mi
Africa - 11.67 million sq mi

So properties in Paulus Hook are worth 90,000x the values of GV? Guess we should be taxing the shit of you, given you're full of it. Tool.




Sry, should I have said Asia to omaha? Love how that's the one thing you took from my post.

In any case, as with most things, the market will decide.

Posted on: 2015/4/23 0:55
 Top 


Re: Saw a stolen bike sale and a drug deal in DTJC
#60
Home away from home
Home away from home


Quote:

dtjcview wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
I agree that no website, not even JCPD has a number which is 100% accurate that shows crime in every area of Jersey City. Every number is an estimate, even the UCR data. I can quote pages of estimated crime numbers - all based on reported crime in the neighborhood. All would show GV has higher rates of crime, especially violent crime than DTJC.

All you have are lines like "Greenville crime sells copy - and I'd bet much fewer people buy the JJ in DTJC than Greenville."

Can you link me to a study which shows the above?

But more importantly, what you don't understand is that variables affect both neighborhoods (umder reporting/over reporting of crime) and more importantly, degree matters. Meaning, we aren't arguing whether it's pronounced tomato or tomatoe. We are debating whether the continent of Africa is bigger than the city of Omaha. These estimated numbers aren't even close.

Finally, at the end of the day, I am doing a service by posting these figures in the hopes that a potential resident reads this and reconsiders moving to GV. I value human life, unlike some on this board.



I'd agree that "headline crime" and probably violent crime rates are likely higher in GV than DTJC. But DTJC has much higher property-related crime. Looking at the UCR stats N/S/E/W it's like being given the choices - do you prefer to have your house broken into - get mugged in the street - or live in bubble-wrapped room on the waterfront?

Personally, I ignore the headline crime - you've more chance of being hit by a truck.

Africa vs Omaha? Only in your head (and perhaps the JJ).





N/S/E/W don'r correlate to neighborhoods well. East, as defined by JCPD, includes areas west of i78 and also jsquare. I don't believe there is more property crime in DTJC than GV. Show me 07305 has less property crime than 07302. I don't live in "East" Jersey city. WTF is that? I live in DTJC - you do know no one says they live in the East District of JC right?

I live in paulus hook and I feel very safe. But my feeling is substantiated by crime stats as well as my property value. Per square foot, value in paulus hook is worth a lot more than property value in GV - on the same order as africa is bigger than omaha - that's a fact, not even estimates.

End of the day, doesn't even matter. And you claim to live in DTJC but have such positive things to say about DTJC - "bubble wrappred room" ? lol. It's okay to admit you live in GV.


Posted on: 2015/4/22 23:50
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