Just a follow-up with a couple questions to get some more input on the issue?

I e-mailed Steve Fulop about the sewer charging/back-up issue and got a very nice reply (Tom Gibbons was cc-ed). Steve in looking at the issue and mentioned that from the information he was getting, the backups were due to either:
a) Sewer needs cleaning
b) Dated system that can?t handle capacity.

Granted ? I?m no engineer, but I still see this as a capacity/dated system issue. If the system is so delicate that it gets clogged frequently, isn?t that a symptom of a dated capacity/design issue?...

We recently installed a 6? check valve and had our building main scoped/snaked with a video camera feed out to the street main. We wanted to ensure that our building main was fine and had no collapsed portions (it was). The camera had a ?fish-eye? lens, so I?m sure the image was distorted, but when it got the street main, it really appeared that the street main was rectangular in shape and made out of brick. The contractor we hired told us that if our building was approx 150-years old, the sewer was probably put in a couple years before the building.

I?m hoping the check valve does the trick, but I?m concerned that although I may have blocked sewage from backing up my building main, the water in a ?charge? situation still has to go ?somewhere.? Does a check-valve on Building A make it worse for those surrounding buildings that aren?t check-valved?... Say all the buildings on the block were check-valved ? would a sewer back-up make the street flooding worse and possibly raise the ground water levels to where buildings would get foundation leaks?...

A couple other questions for discussion ?
? Has anyone actually viewed the old sewer main at the street? What is its size, shape, etc.?
? If, indeed, the main is rectangular in shape ? is that shape more prone to clogging than a round sewer?

Thoughts?...

Thanks,
Scott (the sewer obsessed)

Former Hospital Could Become 1,200 Condos

'Beacon' development will preserve Med Center architecture, may include museum

Excerpts:

Ultimately, according to the redevelopers of the site, Metrovest Equities, the entire project could include a $350 million renovation of the hospital buildings, including 1,200 rental and condo apartments, shops, a central courtyard, a dog run, a restaurant, a grocery store, and the parking garage.

The buildings to be redeveloped in phase one will be the center building at the Baldwin Avenue main entrance to the hospital, and two buildings adjoining the center building. The main entrance for the new project will be on Montgomery Street.

The developer

Filopoulos also spoke during the presentation, answering questions from the Planning Board.

He said the Beacon will have features accessible to local residents. He said there will be a museum dedicated to the history of the Medical Center, as well as a supermarket and an early child care center.

Filopoulos also said that the size of the residential units being built in the first phase will average 900 square feet because of the way the original medical buildings were designed and constructed. Future units being built in the other phases will average 2,000 square feet.

Also:

http://www.njcu.edu/programs/jchistor ... ue_Maternity_Hospital.htm

As part of the Jersey City Medical Center Complex at Montgomery and Baldwin Avenues, the Maternity Hospital will undergo renovation. Rather than demolishing these locally significant and historic structures, the Jersey City Redevelopment Agency named Metrovest Equities of Manhattan to rehabilitate the buildings. The complex will be called the Beacon and redesigned for rental and condominium apartments as well as commercial space and cultural venues. The renovation project is to be completed by 2010 for a projected cost of $350 million.

Lastly, from the JCEDC site
http://www.jcedc.org/new/jj040405.html

The initial stage of the three-phase project, called the Beacon, would target three buildings, turning them into 314 condominium units, a rooftop restaurant, a public pre-K /daycare center, and 64,821 square feet of office/retail space. The initial round of construction also would include all roadway, landscaping and utility work, as well as the construction of a new 1,049-space parking garage.

When completed, the complex will feature 1,200 condominium units, a public theater, a gourmet market, parks, shops, a dog run, a library and business center, screening rooms, a spa and a museum devoted to the Jersey City Medical Center.

I just noticed a huge banner on the side of the old JCMC. The verbiage was for the Beacon

There's next to no info on the site...just wants your personal info.

Past sale prices for 70 Sussex St from Domania.com

Address Sale Date Price Lot Size Tax Value

70 Sussex St Aug 02 $499,900 NA NA
70 Sussex St Jun 02 $530,000 NA NA
70 Sussex St May 02 $455,000 2265 $240,000
70 Sussex St Mar 99 $160,000 2265 $240,000
70 Sussex St Jun 98 $140,000 2265 $240,000

LeeLou, you misunderstood the point that I was making regarding why it is important to consider the rental income that a property could generate.

Here is an excerpt from an article in the Economist that I PM'd your husband. By the way, I read this article AFTER I made the post that you were responding to:

"The most compelling evidence that home prices are over-valued in many countries is the diverging relationship between house prices and rents. The ratio of prices to rents is a sort of price/earnings ratio for the housing market. Just as the price of a share should equal the discounted present value of future dividends, so the price of a house should reflect the future benefits of ownership, either as rental income for an investor or the rent saved by an owner-occupier.

Calculations by The Economist show that house prices have hit record levels in relation to rents in America, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland and Belgium. This suggests that homes are even more over-valued than at previous peaks, from which prices typically fell in real terms. House prices are also at record levels in relation to incomes in these nine countries."


Quote:

Quote:

Arguments for:

- Paulus Hook has a bunch of good schools.

- It's really more convenient to lower Manhattan than most of Manhattan is, and it's even reasonably convenient to businesses located in Brooklyn.

- The Statue of Liberty view is pretty cool.

- If energy prices stay home, many moderately affluent people (or wealthy, environmentally conscious people) who now drive in to Manhattan from distant suburbs might prefer to live in Paulus Hook.

Arguments against:

- I think that, overall, because of factors such as student loans and the high cost of nursing home care for parents, people under 45 are going to turn out to be quite a bit poorer at each age than people over 45 were at the same age. At some point, demand for expensive homes may drop dramatically.

- Paulus Hook is under a nuclear bull's eye. If terrorism becomes commonplace on U.S. soil, people might decide they'd rather not live next to either the Statue of Liberty or the Goldman Sachs building. Not to mention all the guys with rifles who show up periodically.

- At this point, the retail options in Paulus Hook are pitiful. Make fun of C-Town all you want, but, hot refrigerators and all, it still has a much better selection than the Green Cow.

- The air seems to be a lot cleaner in the Jersey City Heights, and there are a lot more nice, stand-alone single-family houses in the Heights. It seems to me that many people who can afford a $2 million house want a stand-alone house.

That's useful information. I tried just now to track down the
sales price of 70 suusex on the nice website at

www.nj.com/realestate/homesales

but they only keep the past 18mos of home sales.
Here's what I found for sussex:

Address: 136 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: October 25, 2004
Date Officially Recorded: December 10, 2004
Sale Price: $ 920,000.00
Address: 144 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: August 23, 2004
Date Officially Recorded: October 15, 2004
Sale Price: $ 273,000.00
Address: 149 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: October 29, 2004
Date Officially Recorded: January 05, 2005
Sale Price: $ 1.00
Address: 149 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: March 16, 2005
Date Officially Recorded: April 12, 2005
Sale Price: $ 191,000.00
Address: 151 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: February 14, 2005
Date Officially Recorded: March 09, 2005
Sale Price: $ 375,000.00
Address: 151 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: February 14, 2005
Date Officially Recorded: March 09, 2005
Sale Price: $ 375,000.00
Address: 151 Sussex ST , Unit/Apt: 000001, , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: October 25, 2004
Date Officially Recorded: December 01, 2004
Sale Price: $ 375,000.00
Address: 156 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: September 27, 2004
Date Officially Recorded: October 18, 2004
Sale Price: $ 672,500.00
Address: 61 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: December 27, 2004
Date Officially Recorded: January 04, 2005
Sale Price: $ 420,000.00
Address: 61 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: November 03, 2004
Date Officially Recorded: January 18, 2005
Sale Price: $ 652,000.00
Address: 61 Sussex ST , , , Jerseycity, NJ 07302 ? Map!
Date Sold: November 03, 2004
Date Officially Recorded: January 18, 2005
Sale Price: $ 652,000.00

This is undoubtedly a mix of 1bdrm condos and a
renovated townhouse or two.

I'd like to add the following disclamer:
IMHO returns are historical and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Read this.

Quote:

Quote:

70 Sussex is probably an interesting example, as you possibly know this was an empty lot 3+ years ago. The lot was purchased by John Bober, the same developer who constructed the new condos at 60 Morris and 61-63 Sussex.

I do not know how much John paid for the empty lot, I also don't know how much it cost to construct 71 Sussex (which is a three unit condo building), but actually looks like an old noble single family brownstone. The units originally sold for $455K (1000 sqft), $499K (1450 sqft) and $530K (1500+ sqft). Total: $1,484,000

The $530K unit (the PH), which John had built for his mother recently came back on the market about 4-months ago and sold in a matter of days for around $850K (possibly more), that's an approximately 60% increase. Calculate the same across the building and today's total market value for the three units would be $2.3M+.

I'd guess that an emtpy lot on Sussex would would sell for more than $1M at auction. Spend $500K on building the place and you've got an excellent one family. Spend probably the same and you could build 3 condos and walk away with maybe $1M in profit.

So the brownstone for sale on Sussex is $2M, and needs $300K spending on it to turn it into a one family = $2.3M. If it's 5000sqft in total that's $460 per sqft. Condo's in the Sugarhouse range from $780 per sqft to $1000 per sqft. I know you can't make a direct comparison between a full luxury condominium and a brownstone, however it does help shed some light onto how the $2M price was arrived at.

This is discouraging. We are planning to move from the suburbs to JC and have fallen for P-Hook. We like the
closeness to the waterfront, but moreso, my wife is polish and
the little polish community and church in P-Hook reminds
her of where she grew up in an ethnic part of toronto.

Generally speaking, since we are new to the JC real estate scene,
what is the incremental price (if any) from P-HOOK to VanVorst
park to Hamilton Park? Assuming there is an increment, what
justifies it? Closeness to waterfront? Ferries? other?

Quote:

I am so jealous. I love that building.....if you are a shrewd investor or ever decide to sell it otherwise....please let me know--what a buy for you!!!!!!

Quote:

In Paulus Hook? Probably not in a rowhouse...although if you are really game, I'd try 3 things. First, take a walk up Sussex at the very end...West of Warren..there are a couple of narrow rowhouses there that may still be for sale...and if not, take a look at the house on the South side of the street at mid-block that seems abandoned....you might be able to find out the story on that. Second there are still a very few empty lots left. One on Lower Sussex, one on upper Sussex, one on Morris, etc. If you could get permission to build something smaller like the old stationhouse (the picture you posted) you might get out of the whole thing for far less than an existing rowhouse. Third, call and talk to some of the people who have been here a long time and are real estate junkies....like Dan at DeRuggerio or Al Burr (a local builder/renovator) or Bill Grey an engineer who co-owns Lighthorse Tavern and who, I believe, still has a building crew on the side.) They've built and sold here for a long time and know virtually everything--all the little details.

Disclosure....Al renovated our rowhouse in '97 and we absolutely love it...and Dan is always trying to get us to sell it! I eat at Bill's and we were working on our buildings at the same time and shared equipment.....other than that, I'm not related to any of them. (And I'm sure other people can add to this list.)

Yes, agreed, it does have nice lines. I purchased the building in the picture.

The market in Paulus Hook is on fire, there are no bargains. I also believe that those waiting for the market to tank, thinking you?ll be able pickup a Paulus hook brownstone in a year or two for 10-20% less than the today?s prices do not understand the demographic change that continues to take place in downtown JC.

This thread touches upon it, but missed one important observation, namely the reason why brownstone buyer?s do not care that any potential rental income of the properties will not cover the standard 30-year fixed rate mortgage payment. Personally, I believe the reason for this is that new money is entering the Paulus Hook market. Figures which seem high are in fact relative bargains to those migrating from NYC?s real estate market. $2M to these buyers is not a lot of money.

When you compare the $2M brownstone on Sussex, which started this thread, to NYC property or even the price of condos in the Sugarhouse and MG, I?m left with the conclusion that you?ve missed-the-boat if you think $1M will buy you a brownstone in Paulus Hook. Budget $1.3M to $2M, and in my opinion, come back next year with $1.5M to $2.3M. Why the continued price rise? Interest rates rises will not matter, these new buyers are flush with cash. In 18-months time all new construction in Paulus Hook will have finished. And other then a couple of empty lots on Morris and Sussex which selling for $800K+, there is no more land. The new development of Liberty Harbor North looks like they are building brownstones and rowhouse, but they are in fact two/three story condos made to look like single family homes. Therefore, there will be no more large single family brownstones or rowhouses constructed, and these few properties will slowly but surely become the grand homes to doctors, lawyers, CEOs and Walls St. types.

Paulus Hook will be a very different place in 5 to 10 years time, maybe not better but certainly more affluent.

It was on the market for about 3 days. I've always liked it. By the time the realtor called me back, it was sold. Apparently the new owner is renting it.

Any scoop on this? It has great lines but moreso a 4sale sign on it!

http://jclist.com/modules/xcgal/displ ... lbum=random&pos=-182&cat=

You can expect to see maybe one brownstone/rowhouse on the market per year in Paulus Hook, daroogle. They just don't come on the market that often.

I can't afford $2M either -- does anyone know of anything
else available in P-Hook that I can turn into a spacious 1-fam?

It might be expensive but they sure look nice. Wish I could afford it

Today from cnn.com:

"The Fed has raised interest rates in nine quarter-percentage point steps since June last year to 3.25 percent and is expected by financial markets to keep going to around 4.0 percent by the end of 2005."

If you hold all other variables constant, and increase in interest rate by .75% will decrease the sale price of property in JC and everywhere else where the US$ is the currency of choice. Bye bye cheap credit.

I'm voting with Steveikin....I think your view(s) contain an a priori (and negative) view about the waterfront area in JC that I don't share.... so here are some factors that could push the value up a PH building well over that price.

1. Some historic buildings are narrow, others as large as 25'

2. Some 100+ year-old buildings are regular depth--others were completely extended and have 1/3rd more space.

3. Some P-Hook buildings have parking for 2 or more cars--either at the building or, like the corner of Washington and Sussex, just steps away. (This is virtually unheard of in most historic rowhouses.)

4. Some buildings have up to three apartments in addition to the owner's space.

5. Some gut re-builds use the historical items (existing stairs, mantles, details etc.) but are re-plumbed, wired, insulated, etc. to create a totally modern house inside the old shell (or go beyond even that...see Sussex just West of Warren--a new level of renovation).

So here's the question...how much does a 100+ year old, yet completely modern 5000+ sq/ft building with 2 parking spaces two blocks from 3 forms of transportation--and near the water-- in a tree-lined beautiful neigborhood a 10 minute commute from downtown cost in NYC? Rough guess...wait a second...they don't even really exist. Any rowhouse 2 blocks from the water in Manhattan is 15 min from any public transport. That same bulding in the upper 80's would be about $8-12 million.

For that matter, what would a 5000 sq/ft house with all modern features but historical detailing be worth in Short Hills? So what about it being in JC makes it lose all of that value????

Also, where in NYC can you get into your car in 2 minutes, and drive 5 minutes to a mall, movie, 2 supermarkets--or get out of the city via the Turnpike without going through a tunnel or over a bridge??? (I know, in NYC you can walk, but on those 33 degree days when the wind is blowing the rain in your face, a car sounds PRETTY good.)

The only reason you would find $2mm odd is because we're all in the "its just Jersey City" mindset. (Thank goodness my wife talked me out of that 8 years ago when we could still afford to buy here!!!! That was when people were saying how could ANYONE ever even THINK about one of these selling for $600k--which appalled many in 1997.) In truth, these historic buildings in P-Hook are probably worth (and will probably rise to) well over that as the constant construction on Greene and the end of Warren ends and people around here wake up one morning to find they are living in just about the nicest place you can imagine! Also, more will be divided for condos, further reducing the number of remaining full houses (or buildings that can be converted back into a full house) to a small number.

But, as always, I could be mistaken!!!!

Does Dan own property in JC under his own name?

Find out at http://www.cityofjerseycity.com/WebTaxInquiry/AccountSearch.aspx

The street address can be entered to look up the owner - individuals, corporation or partnership.

I concede. You are wiser than I. Thank you.

Steve, your ?6 factors? would have been handy for tulip merchants to assess the value their product in early 17th century Netherlands. I Substituted ?tulip? for ?property.?

1. Has the tulip previously had numerous FULL PRICE offers
2. The value of tulips in the neighborhood recently sold or for sale
3. The location
4. What a comparable tulips ... would sell for
5. The unique characters of the tulip?.
6. The sophistication of the potential buyer?(many of the traders were intelligent and sophisticated, but still lost their shirts)

There are three methods that appraisers use to assess the value of a property:
* Cost approach
* Comparison Approach
* Income Approach (used primarily for commercial properties)

Steve? factors cover the first two, but not the third. The comparison approach provides a ?snapshot? of the value. The income approach is useful for assessing the longer term value -- for folks that wish to live in their homes, instead of immediately ?flipping? them.

A formula that I learned in business school that demonstrates the income approach is as follows:

Monthly rental income * 100= fair market value.

For example, a house that could be rented for $2,000 per month has a market value of $200,000. In our current market a condo that could be rented for $2,000 has a selling price of well over $400,000. This is an indication that something is amiss.

IMHO, this is NOT a good time to invest in real estate. I could be wrong! Prices could double, even triple, but I don?t think they will. Time will tell.

See: Tulipmania

Quote:

Quote:

The model is extremely sophisticated and way too complex for simple num nuts to comprehend; fundamentally it's based around the share price of 4-year old tech stocks, the posiition of the Moon, what I had for lunch, and the strength of the stench of my socks. Patent Pending.

I never, never ever take into account:
1. Has the property previously had numerous FULL PRICE offers
2. The value of property in the neighborhood recently sold or for sale
3. The location
4. What a comparable property in NYC and/or Brooklyn, etc. would sell for
5. The unique characters of the property, i.e. is it a one of its kind rowhouse or a 1000sqft condo, and the supply of said properties.
6. The sophistication of the potential buyer: i.e. is the buyer able to either qualify for a $1M mortgage with $1M in cash or might possibly have $2M in cash, (usually a strong indicator of a financial idiot or "fool" lacking the ability to make a calculated judgment as to whether a property is correctly priced). Or are they a wise property shark taking a 100% $400K mortgage on a pre-construction condo "cuz it's gotta to be worth $800K when me flips it".

What valuation model are you using? Was Exodus worth $90 because other fools bought it for $90?

See chart

A stock is NOT the same as real estate, but they are both subject to cycles and bubble.

Quote:

Quote:

Do you know which house it is?

And another one ($150K less than $2M), but this one has a car parking space.

http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/84240107.html

It was a good idea to call the State DEP office. It puts me in the curious position now of hoping the basement floods so I can document. Although this last solution, the floodgate valve, does seem to be working. So maybe I won't have the opportunity for a little while. I will write letters to the people on that list though. -- Thanks for your work on this Tom. It is a critical issue.

Ben,

The New Jersey DEP called me today regarding the flooding in my basement. They will be the best avenue to getting sewer / flooding problems addressed in Jersey City.

But before you contact them you need to have documentation. The DEP told me they need residents to provide photos of the flooding, and dates and times of when flooding occurred. You can also include information like weather conditions at the time of the flooding incident. Also record / document your calls and letters to the MUA regarding the problems. And the MUAs responses.

DEP is aware that this is a problem in Jersey City but needs residents to provide this type of information in order for them to get the MUA to begin repairing and upgrading the downtown sewer system.

Good luck!

I would add the followinging:

The Jersey City Municipal Utilities Authority (JCMUA) is required to ensure that all wastewater and storm water flow to the treatment plant and that fresh water reaches your home. Any that does not is their responsibility.

The sewers throughout downtown Jersey City are over 100-years old and have been allowed to disintegrate over many years of neglect. In the past Jersey City has only made repairs in response to regulatory directives and to promote development.

Downtown is serviced by a Combined Sewer system, which means that raw sewage and storm water are combined in the same sewer pipe. When it rains the collapsed or broken, undersized pipes backup (surcharge) and a combination of storm water and sewage floods into your basement.

Don't let the MUA lie to you. The flooding in your basement is not directly due to the following:

? ?Regional Groundwater Conditions;
? ?Below Sea Level?
? ?High Tides?
? ?Underground Rivers?

Ask for the JCMUA to fulfill their responsibility to repair and maintain the sewer system in a manner that prevents the discharge of sewage into your homes. Ask your elected officials to prepare a capital budget and a master plan that includes the millions of dollars it will cost to repair this 100-year old sewer system. Ask the DEP to mandate that the JCMUA repair our 100-year old sewer system.

Any water entering your home is a potential health hazard. In this case it is combined with raw sewage. Water damage can cause both fungal and bacterial contamination and may damage structural components in buildings. Too much exposure may cause or worsen conditions such as asthma, hay fever or other allergens.

Common symptoms of over-exposure are cough, congestion, runny nose, eye irritation and aggravation of asthma. Depending on the amount of exposure and a persons' vulnerability, more serious health effects such as fever, breathing problems, nausea and skin rashes can occur.

It is the JCMUA?s obligation to maintain the sewer system in a manner that protects human health and the environment. They are responsible for ensuring that raw sewage flows to the treatment plant and NOT back into your homes.

In New Jersey, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is responsible for enforcing these regulations. EPA has issued stiff penalties to municipalities that fail to ensure the sewage flows to treatment plant and not into the environment:

City of Honolulu, HI (1994) ? The EPA fined the City $1.2 million for failing to maintain its sewer system. EPA also required improvements to the sewer at a cost of $30 million.

Metro Dade County, FL (1995) ? The EPA fined the county $2 million for failing to maintain the sewer system, which resulted in the overflow of raw sewage into homes, streets and businesses. EPA further required improvements to the sewer at a cost of $800 million.

Year-after-year the JCMUA has repeatedly stated that they have no money to repair even the most notable of sewer problems. Yet year-after-year there is no Master Plan and no attempt to even begin addressing or funding these issues. Send the message to your elected officials and the DEP that sewage flowing into you home whenever it rains in unaccetable and a violation of the Clean Water Act.