4 inches an hour!?

Posted by Mao on 2017/3/13 10:41:04

Meanwhile...the threat for Blizzard conditions with 1 to 2 ft
of snow is high for the NYC metro...NE NJ...Lower Hudson Valley
and SW CT. Blizzard Warning has been issued for this area.
Coupled jet structure...approaching phased mid level shortwave
energy...and deep and strong frontogenetic forcing...interacting
with inflow of gulf/sub-tropical moisture points towards
intense snowfall rates late tonight and pivoting north through
early Tuesday afternoon. Fairly good operational model agreement
on 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 inches qpf...with locally up to 2 inches qpf.
Most of this falling in a 9 hr period! Snowfall rates of 2 to 4
inches per hour look likely in this area based on SPC SREF
strongly signaling potential for snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches
per hour and the 3km experimental NAM showing still showing
potential for snowfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour
. Intense
comma head banding may linger over the western portions of the
cwa into the afternoon.

Strong Winds: Based on westward shift and stronger low
pressure...have expanded blizzard warning one zone grouping N &
W. Models showing potential for 35-45kt winds at 950 HPA into
much of NE NJ...Lower Hud...and S CT Tue morning/afternoon. This
should translate into several hours of 35 to 40 mph gusts with
heavy snow in these areas. These strong winds with heavy snow
will likely make travel nearly impossible Tuesday morning in
these areas with several roads becoming impassable. Winds fields
strengthen up to 50-60 kt at 950 HPA for eastern LI and far SE
CT at the same time...where potential exists for high wind gusts
of 50-60 mph. Duration of blizzard conditions across southern
and eastern coastal areas is tricky depending on changeover
time...but even here a few hours of whiteout conditions and
dangerous travel likely for the Tue morning commute.

Heavy snow and strongest winds should begin to wind down from sw to
ne late Tue/Tue evening as low pressure pulls east of New England.
Snow showers and gusty NW winds could lingers through Wednesday as
the phased upper low moves through.

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